Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[ibug] 17/8/2016 14:52

Still an offset against gross profit and more revenue for debt payment amounting to about $700 million USD + interest and bank charges incurred during the project development cycle imo.

[hearts1] 17/8/2016 14:45

The carry costs are not a lump sum, but taken back each month under the terms of the PSC.

[ibug] 17/8/2016 14:07

iNVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER FORMATION --- with enough volume this might takeoff rather sharply if news as expected is released about the TEN production well producing first oil of circ: 23,000 bopd tomorrow....plus a statement about Ghana paying 15% carry costs back to developers. Effectively derisking Tullow's debt repayment programme; also production from TEN is planned to rise to approx 80,000bopd by Q4.

[suarez99] 17/8/2016 10:28

COURTESY OF IBUG :

Bank of America Merrill Lynch upgraded Tullow Oil to 'buy' from 'neutral' and lifted the price target to 285p from 275p.

BofA noted the shares have materially underperformed the sector.

"Over the past 24 and 36 months, shares have returned -70% and -80% respectively, against the sector at - 60% in both time periods.

"Further, we believe when we overlay the operational progress with our commodity price view, Tullow Oil is one of the most compelling levered E&Ps to gain exposure to an upswing to a recovery in oil prices."

Merrill pointed out that Tullow is on the cusp of a 30% increase in group production, while simultaneously lowering opex and capex 25% and 40%, respectively.

"With the TEN field start-up imminent (18 August), Tullow is in a position to generate 15%+ free cash flow yields as group production grows 30% year-on-year."

In addition, BofA said that while Tullow's net debt position has been a perennial overhang for the company, with an organic pay-down focus, it will now be in a much stronger position in negotiating its reserves-based loan facility at year-end 2016.

"Indeed, we think Tullow is about to enter the most rapid deleveraging of any company in our coverage, moving from YE16 net debt: EBITDA of 5.9x to 3.9 x by year-end 2017."

Furthermore, it said that now that management has successfully raised $300m via a convertible issue in July, it is under significantly less pressure to sell upstream assets pro-cyclically, which is a positive step.

[ibug] 17/8/2016 08:36

Just read that the government of Ghana have a 15% interest in the TEN project have been carried for costs but they will have to start paying their share of carried costs when production starts. Which is from tomorrow; therefore Tullow should get repaid from tomorrow.

[hazl] 17/8/2016 08:19

There will be reasons for up days and down days for oil and gold but its better than buying at the height of a cycle,that's the way I'm looking at it any way.

IMO

[hazl] 16/8/2016 19:47

Thank you ibug.......any predictions for TLW?
At its height it was very impressive..........I can wait!

[chessman2] 16/8/2016 17:10

There is a clue there!! I expect TLW to rise further very soon, in fact even before the TEN news is announced. We will see!

[hazl] 16/8/2016 16:46

Ibug.... you are obviously good with charts, what's the short to medium -term price, do you reckon?
I personally am looking to the long-term but it will clearly go up in stages.

IMO

[hazl] 16/8/2016 16:46

Majedie Asset Management Limited
have increased their holding I see.

IMO

[ibug] 16/8/2016 15:50

Majedie Asset Management just increased it's holding --- 45815547 shares representing 5.02% voting rights.

[nicebut] 16/8/2016 15:43

Linden have actually just increased their short to .72% on 12th...so now 12.3% short total. Whilst a few others have RNSed icreasing holdings and going over 5%, even today.....going to be a bit of a battle here me thinks....Come on the longs.


Edit Yup good article by sharehub.

[kevjones2] 16/8/2016 14:23

Sharehub article very good. It's nice to read something from an expert who was very surprised Odey didn't close some shorts recently.

[kevjones2] 16/8/2016 14:20

I ended up in Mykonos, Mediterranean when I clicked the link!! Anyway, we should hear something soon, that's for sure.

[ibug] 16/8/2016 12:29

Here is the link to Sharehub ----

[hazl] 16/8/2016 12:24

THE SHAREHUB HAD some interesting stuff specifically about Tlw but also on general oil related and when do shorters throw in the towel.....that sort of thing.

Great posts here btw!