Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[wantmorethan24p] 30/11/2015 12:22

will not be surprised if it finishes blue today.

[wantmorethan24p] 30/11/2015 12:20

developing countries in the world are going to need poo.

[wantmorethan24p] 30/11/2015 12:18

looks like there was a MASSIVE TREE SHAKE in the morning to try and get rid of weak holders.

[azalea] 30/11/2015 11:43

IF, Iran meets all the outstanding requirements of the nuclear agreement and oil sanctions are lifted in the coming months, then we could see an immediate increase of 500,000 bpd coming onto the oil market. How that amount influences the p.o.o. will be interesting to see.

[badmumba] 30/11/2015 11:42

Your right wantmore , it's in a range and trade it but the folk on here saying 300p and other figures by next week are living in cookoo land ..

[edmondj] 30/11/2015 11:33

Things are certainly very different to end-2001 when it was possible to buy into Dana and Premier at a discount to producing assets - assuming an oil price around $15, with potential possibly to rise to $20 - and exploration portfolios in for free!

That was proper 'capitulation investing' at a defined discount, seemingly impossible to quantify as yet in the oil & gas sector.

No one cared either; you could bid for as much stock as you desired.

Ho hum...

[wantmorethan24p] 30/11/2015 11:31

whats going on oil is up and this is down????

[ny boy] 30/11/2015 10:48

Plenty of dead cat bounces, not buying here just long the crude dip after thanksgiving for a 5-10% a cat bounce

[azalea] 30/11/2015 10:16

EJ
Thank you for the link. In my humble opinion,unless there is a dramatic near term increase in global demand for oil, the consequences of the near-mid term let alone long term levels of oil production being suggested by Iran, will drive oil prices down.

The reasons for current non participation of U.S. oil giants are two fold.
1. The Iranian contracts may not produce an attractive return on the money invested.
2. There is no guarantee that future U.S. governments will not reimpose oil sanctions, which would result in iran confiscating any U.S. material oil investments.

S. Arabia would not be wish to cut its production only to see Iran and its current ally Russia(Syria) take up any slack.

[wantmorethan24p] 30/11/2015 10:02

back to £2 soon.
patiance required.

[badmumba] 30/11/2015 09:40

As i said back to the 180's ... Oil is not recovering any time soon .

[ny boy] 30/11/2015 08:58

Can't see this surviving, we will have lower oil prices for much longer, a killer blow for the minnows like this one, penny stock status after the rout is over in a few years.

[edmondj] 30/11/2015 08:00

Yes; but what will be the resulting effect on global supply/prices?

[azalea] 30/11/2015 07:53

OPEC meeting 4/12, could produce some surprises.

There is talk of S. Arabia reviewing its economy.

This morning I caught a ticker tape type news statement on one of the TV channels, that Iran was seeking $30Bn of oil contracts. Not sure what that meant, does it mean that Iran want to sign contracts with foreign oil companies to invest that kind of money to develop its oil reserves?

[ny boy] 29/11/2015 23:24

Eurozone spiralling into a deathly deflationary senario

[gregpeck7] 29/11/2015 22:22

ECB getting the big guns out, hopefully chinese will follow suit.

[edmondj] 29/11/2015 21:58

"Mr $10 oil" is A. Gary Shilling: specifically, anticipating $10-20 based on the marginal cost of production in the Gulf, as explained here:

A. Gary Shilling & Co. President Gary Shilling discusses where oil prices are headed next. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Betty Liu on “Bloomberg Markets.”



(Betty Liu looking pretty darn hot for a 40 year-old, another reason to watch.)

A. Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a New Jersey consultancy, and author of “The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation.” Some portfolios he manages invest in currencies and commodities. Shilling earned his master’s degree and doctorate in economics at Stanford University. While on the West Coast, he served on the staffs of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Bank of America. Before establishing his own firm in 1978, Shilling was senior vice president and chief economist of White, Weld & Co. Earlier, he set up the economics department at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith at age 29, and served as the firm’s first chief economist. He has been cited repeatedly by the Wall Street Journal as one of the top bond-market analysts and stock forecasters. Twice, a poll of financial institutions conducted by Institutional Investor magazine ranked Shilling as Wall Street’s top economist. Futures magazine also ranked him the country’s No. 1 commodity trading adviser. And in 2003, MoneySense ranked him as the third best stock market forecaster, behind Warren Buffett.

[ny boy] 29/11/2015 21:14

The World is awash with oil, there is no global growth and all the dodgy Countrues are joining in pumping their crude once again onto the World market, crude could easily fall to below $30 and prices could be subdued for a long time, which will strangle Companies like this. The big players left will take all the worthwhile assets for pennies in the £. Then you will see a final bottom, sickening for many shareholders as they face virtual wipeout.

[jacko07] 29/11/2015 20:08

Afren was full of crooks, some of who should go to prison.

That can't be said about Tullow, it has always been above board. Those latest rumours about it being another Afren are off course.

I have to agree the bears are winning. Tullow was shorted down to under 160p and bounced back when those shorts were covered. That may happen again as we go into December, but the falls maybe more drastic. If you are sharp enough 24p, you could make a killing in time for Xmas.

[wantmorethan24p] 29/11/2015 10:43

afren failed because of corrupt directors and it was nigerian.look at EEL.

[azalea] 29/11/2015 10:27

(Well worth a read)In his interesting article titled 'Why the oil price could be depressed for a generation' James Phillipps, extensively quotes Chris Taylor -head of research at fund group Neptune., who argues that investors are still failing to to appreciate the implications of fracking and the shale oil it produces.

One one his statistics that struck a particular chord with me :-
The slump in the gas price has exerted further pressure on the cost of oil. Historically,owing to oil's high calorific content, it was priced around eight times gas, but if this metric is used, then oil has much further to fall. "if gas is at $4, then oil should be be nearer $32, not $45 and gas is nearer $3".

Not that long ago, I pointed out that investors should take note of falling gas prices, down circa 50% this year. On Friday, natural gas futures for delivery in January was at circa $2.25. IF, the above metric given by Taylor is valid, the the price of oil is in for a hard time, which only a major cut in production will cure. The question, is will oil producers take the medicine?

[ny boy] 28/11/2015 23:02

If oil falls to anything like $30 be or less, Tullow will be a penny stock. Another unlikely to survive. Dead cat bounces all the way down, big players left won't bother bidding, they will just pick up any worthwhile assets from the receivers. Shareholder wipe out, bit like Afren when it was 200p and falling, now worthless.