Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[wantmorethan24p] 16/11/2015 10:16

just need the chinese SINOPEC to come to tullows rescue.

[dlku] 16/11/2015 09:59

One senior government source said that, in any case, the Saudis expected the oil price to stabilise and rise thereafter as demand rose to meet supply. The government is predicting a rise in worldwide demand of 1.5m to 1.7m barrels per day this year alone.
He said even on current budgets the authorities could live with a price of $80 per barrel.
“We believe $40 to $50 oil is temporary,” he said. “Everybody now in the market thinks the recovery is coming.

[dlku] 16/11/2015 09:54

ready to bounce

geopolitical risk will cause oil to spike
lots of supply disruptions
putin will strike soon imho

[heliweli] 16/11/2015 09:16

Need to take out 200.

[volsung] 16/11/2015 08:54

I would say 170p by close of play.

[sawadee3] 16/11/2015 08:46

PMO doing the business too :-)

[sawadee3] 16/11/2015 08:44

Spirito, take a look at all the recent surges we've had, that should give you a good clue :-)

Certainly not yet!

[spirito] 16/11/2015 08:39

Bought at 189 on Friday - what should I exit at?

[sawadee3] 16/11/2015 08:31

Why get rich slowly when you can get rich quickly :-)

God bless TLW :-)

[dlku] 16/11/2015 08:15

geopolitical tension will send oil higher and higher

[sawadee3] 16/11/2015 08:10

Reading all the negativity on the boards towards oil, you just knew we were going to have a belting open on Monday :-)

Looking forward to a great week chaps :-)

Up we jolly well go :-)

[mcsean2164] 15/11/2015 14:34

OPEC: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela

Note: Syria is not in OPEC.



Estimates by local traders and engineers put crude production in Isis-held territory at about 34,000-40,000 bpd. The oil is sold at the wellhead for between $20 and $45 a barrel, earning the militants an average of $1.5m a day.

So 'the warring' area is responsible for little or no production. ISIS is over as a force. The have poked the ants nest and will now be wiped out.

So it really comes down to will Saudi/ Venezeula/ Iraq/ etc. decrease production to increase prices. Venezeula is in serious trouble, Saudi is burning through cash reserves. I expect oil to be at least $50 in 2017. So it comes down to, can tullow survive 2016?

This should help:

"The Group's commodity hedge programme has a net positive mark
to market value of approximately $450 million;
36,011 bopd of 2016 Group oil net entitlement volumes hedged
with an average floor price protection of around $75.5/bbl "

This is the problem:

-- RBL debt capacity remains unchanged at $3.7 billion following
the routine bi-annual redetermination in September; 2015 year-end
facility headroom and free cash expected to be around $1.7 billion
and net debt around $4.2 billion

NY Boy, do you really think Tulow will fail to get through 2016?

[holmess] 15/11/2015 13:26

Russia have already begun to destabilise the mid-east, Putin simply cannot afford to see oil continue at these levels.

I'll just keep accumulating cheap oil stocks, now 110% return on capital since August in TLW alone! - Happy to supply more data to Azalea - he never replied to my last ones ;)

You just have to learn how to play the game. I remember similar rubbish being posted about BARC when I was buying in the 50p region during the financial crisis. Same old, same old. TLW will be doing fine in a few years when PoO is $100+ and in 20 years when it's $500+

[dlku] 15/11/2015 12:29

The conflicts in Syria and Iraq and the sad events in France will result in a global conflict. A full scale war in the middle east will see disruptions to supply and the oil price looks set for soaring.
"The market is myopic," said Steven Wood, a managing director at Moody's Corporate Finance Group. "The market isn't pricing in any risk, geopolitical risk, for oil."

[azalea] 15/11/2015 12:28

Cricklewood
I was replying to gregpeck7 post 2691.

However, if you want to focus on the Middle East, which countries do you think are going to engage in a regional war against each other?

[billy_buffin] 15/11/2015 11:32

More wells going to SI/NC status (Shut in/Not Completed)

Seeking Alpha: 1,000 Bakken Wells Waiting To Be Fracked -- November 14, 2015
From Seeking Alpha:

'The number of oil wells in North Dakota that have been drilled but not fracked surpassed 1,000 for the first time in September, as producers wait for prices to recover before turning them on.
As a result, more than 8% of oil wells in North Dakota now are sitting idle, harming the industry's ability to grow production; daily output in the state fell 2% in September to ~1.16M bbl/day.
The backlog is "sending a definite signal to the market that oil and gas operators are not willing to do a lot of drilling or hydraulic fracturing or production at these low prices," says Lynn Helms, director of the state's Department of Mineral Resources, who figures the backlog is not likely to be worked off until next year at least, and only if oil prices rise.'

'There are so many story lines here, but I've had a busy weekend, so all of this will have to wait.

There are least as many wells in Texas waiting to be fracked, maybe twice that number. It's time for the US government to empty the strategic petroleum reserve and shut the operation down. The SPR is no longer needed. Actually it looks like the SPR will simply become a "slush fund" of sort as Congress starts selling off the oil to raise money for other projects.
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 10:12 PM'

themilliondollarway.blogspot.co.uk/

[cricklewood] 15/11/2015 10:58

azalea

We are talking about war in the middle east not the world, where most of the worlds oil is FFS.

[azalea] 15/11/2015 08:47

gregpeck7
Do not confuse the conflicts in Syria and Iraq with a global conflict. There is not going to be a WW3. When nations gather their forces and military hardware on land and sea to do battle and kill each other in their millions, then you will have a full scale war. It ain't going to happen.

[mapocho] 15/11/2015 00:52

No, oil is a dead duck. It's a fossil fuel and had it's time for the last 150 years. What we're seeing is a structural change in the global economy. You will have to pick you commodity to fit the new reality. Maybe indium or some other mineral in demand. Or even water as it will become less available. I'd stay clear of oil and gas though. Warren Buffet is buying solar energy. He buys the future not the past...

[gregpeck7] 14/11/2015 23:28

Err I think the world is a tinderbox at the moment.. Crude prices could rocket at the drop of a hat.

[cricklewood] 14/11/2015 20:01

Also azalea.

Speclators are no doubt stockpiling oil waitng to make a killing when there is a shortage.

[cricklewood] 14/11/2015 19:21

So the west is going to sit back and let it happen again and again ?, I don't think so they will have to put boots on the ground and take ISIS out once and for all, Ironically it was an oilman who started It all, the war monger G.Bush.

[azalea] 14/11/2015 16:50

IEA
3Bn barrels of crude and oil products stored in tanks around the world.

Cricklewood, There is no full scale war looming anywhere in the world.