Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[little minx] 10/11/2015 15:02

The problem is everybody loves to pluck figures from the air and the truth is nobody really knows.

Fracking is expensive, too expensive at the current level. Keystone Pipeline re fracking is being rejected.

Today the oil price is rebounding a little.

One supply shortage or problem with oil and the price will rocket but keeping it low and going lower could cause financial problems for so many countries it will have a major impact on the world currencies. It will rise for this reason - although it might be slow.

Gold well that's Nixon's fault for pegging currencies to US Dollar instead of Gold. One day the system will need to change again but as many believe the US have no gold so they manipulate the price.

[mccracken227] 10/11/2015 14:59

I will settle for 226 Jovi but this is Tullow!!!

[jovi1] 10/11/2015 14:52

my guess this close above 220 today to be precise 226.25
and i can take the 3-1 but what is the frame time?

[jovi1] 10/11/2015 14:38

happy to top up again today my 37 top up lol

[little minx] 10/11/2015 13:07

Oil looks like its rebounding a little from yesterday.

[badmumba] 10/11/2015 11:58

If i were a bookie i'd give you 3/1 .. :)

[little minx] 10/11/2015 11:51

Well we both have a 50/50 chance.

[badmumba] 10/11/2015 11:18

Well come back and be surprised ,likewise i shall post if it goes way up cause i shall be surprised .

[little minx] 10/11/2015 11:16

No never said any figure but if it goes under £2 I would be surprised

[badmumba] 10/11/2015 11:15

Why would you say that ? or are you another one who spouts 350p by Friday and got it wrong .
I told you not to buy at 240p it was so obvious ,now trust me this will go under £2 ,will you post on here when it does ?

[little minx] 10/11/2015 11:09

Your sounding like a desperate parrot re under £2Amazing

[badmumba] 10/11/2015 10:47

Why would this jump tomorrow dlku , down again today , below £2 coming soon .

[herbyrainer] 10/11/2015 08:24

dlku, That story is rubbish, check the information it's wrong on so many points already.

[dlku] 09/11/2015 19:48

Wont be surprised to see this jump tomorrow

[spacedust] 09/11/2015 19:46

In December the opec will vote not to increase production. Oil will spike and a low of countries will have been saved from going bust

[spacedust] 09/11/2015 19:44

This is the reason for the sell off.

[tas11osc] 09/11/2015 18:00

LM - Tullow site says trading update 11 November

[badmumba] 09/11/2015 17:10

Any way here's some info ..............

Jefferies comment:
"This is the first major farm-in event to this acreage since 2 Sep 2010 when Tullow acquired its 50% stake in most of these licences from Africa Oil, paying back costs and a US $23.75m exploration carry. On 26 Mar 2012 the partners drilled the Ngamia-1 “significant light oil discovery” on Block 10BB. By Jan 2014, six further discoveries across Block BB & 13T led to “discovered resource to over 600mmb gross”. Today, we estimate 28 exploration & appraisal (E&A) wells (and 9 discoveries) in total have been completed in the Lokichar Development area with Pmean gross resource estimate still at 600mmb and (from TLW’s 1H15 results) “discussions underway with the Government regarding the submission of a plan of development in the South Lokichar basin at the end of 2015″
Maersk farm-in; Pre-FID, cash up front and a carry for up to $3.6/b. Upon deal completion Maersk Oil will pay US$350m cash (back costs) to AOI and carry AOI for up to US$90m for future exploration ($15m) & development ($75m) “upon confirmation of resources” (which we assume to be 600mmb gross 2C). We calculate up to US$440m for 150mmb of net contingent resources (25% MAERSKB WI), or US$2.9/b on a pre-FID (Final Investment Decision) basis. If we include Kenya Government back in of up 20% then the metric become US$3.6/b (US$440m for 120mmb net resources).
Upon FID, a further development carry gives “all-in” price of up to $7.0/b. In addition, upon FID (or project sanction) Maersk will also carry up to US$405m of Africa Oil’s working interest share of development expenditures. Hence on a post-FID (all-in) price (of US$845m) we calculate US$5.6/b for a 25% share (or $7.0/b if we include Kenya Gov backin, reducing Maersk (and AOI’s) Lokichar development working interest to 20%).
Pre-FID valuation read across is positive to our Kenya valuation +26p. We carry TLW’s stake in Kenya at US$5.2/b (unrisked), which we then risk and apply a 20% WI government back-in to reach a US$499m absolute valuation for its 40% WI. Applying a pre- FID $440m for 20%, grosses up to US$2.2bn and implies $880m for TLW’s existing stake or 61p/sh (vs. the 35p/sh we carry).
All-in price with development carry implies US$4.2bn gross for Kenya. Including the development carry, which assumes FID, implies an “unrisked̶1; valuation for the Kenya development of US$4.2bn, which compares to our US$3.1bn gross valuation for Kenya based on US$5.2/b. On this unrisked basis, net to TLW’s share would imply 116p/sh vs. the 86p/sh we carry.
Positive deal to carried value but still work ahead to prove those assumptions.
It is positive for Kenya to farm-in a cash-paying partner. The valuation read across to our numbers is also positive, with +26p of “risked value” uplift to our TLW Kenya valuation of 35p implied by Maersk’s view of the development (pre-FID). Assuming the project moves forward to FID, under these farm-in assumptions the unrisked valuation read across is +30p/ sh higher than we carry for TLW (but risked/unrisked delta is actually broadly the same at ~50p/sh)

[badmumba] 09/11/2015 17:09

volsung it's been that way up and down for several months , just look at the chart ..

[badmumba] 09/11/2015 17:08

When oil finally goes back up (and who knows when that will be) i would be a buyer here . For now i still see it in a range ,i'll buy under £2 for short term trade .

[volsung] 09/11/2015 17:07

Can't see this under £2 and I'm usually short.

[little minx] 09/11/2015 17:04

It's not under £2 yet and update due 17 November I wouldn't hold my breath for £2

[badmumba] 09/11/2015 16:29

I did warn this would be back under £2 last week , until oil rallies properly this is up and down in a range .