Thanks Xxnjr. So basically my ords represent time value on a bet that the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al Mendap Strait will be closed simultaneously, lowering TLW's refinancing costs (through a doubling of the oil price). Oh dear, I have boobed again. |
Just some thoughts!
The year end headline debt could be reduced by selling forward cargos at a discount that then could be recovered over the next year through increased production or high oil price. I think Kosmos have done this in the past.
Why do we need a Chairperson? If Exxon can manage with a CEO doing both jobs why not Tullow.?
Save Money |
Xxnjr,The 2025 bonds are too close to maturity for anyone to accept a tender. Why would anyone accept less than 100c if the company is viable? They will likely call the bonds at 100c in mid January as per their terms, or redeem them on March 1 2025. If they default, it will cause an acceleration payment to be due on all other debt.They could tender for the 2026 bonds again but do they have the cash? |
nobull
"I am not knowledgeable enough to know if a fire sale of Lokichar will change my analysis."
A Kenya fire sale would be good. The fact that a fire sale hasn't happened to date. That Africa Oil and Total Energies for whatever reason both deemed Kenya a non-goer. That (so far) no farm in partners have entered the fray. That even Kenya.gov think TLW are incapable of developing the asset etc etc
suggests a write down is at least as likely as a fire sale.
If a write down were to occur, would imagine the next CEO will be the one to cop it, as doing it now may affect the number of options our CEO is awarded for 2024FY.
Do not pass go, do not go to jail, the CEO wins! |
Thx for posting SS. I wonder if TLW now have a draft of the arbitration verdict? I have no idea. (Edit: on re-reading the RNS: decision unknown) Moving on, I don't have a live quote but the 2025's (the ones which are supposed to be settled with the Glencore loan) have apparently finished today in the low 80%'s according to Luxembourg Exchange. If they were being paid off in full then surely they should be trading in the high 90%'s? Not sure I understood Wshak's recent post on twitter but isn't another possibility TLW solicit tenders for the 2025's as happened before
This would happen post arbitration (if positive).
Arbitration delays haven't helped TLW, as ideally if they were to tender for bonds, they would have liked to have that done and dusted by year end, to reduce the headline Net Debt number further. |
 Tullow Oil PLC on Tuesday said it remains confident in its prospects as a standalone business after Kosmos Energy Ltd said it will not be making a bid for the company "at this time".
In a statement, West Africa-focused Tullow said it is "well positioned" to optimise its capital structure and continues to progress plans to address remaining debt maturities, following receipt of the outcome on the branch profits remittance tax arbitration.
Tullow said it has been informed by the International Chamber of Commerce that it has received the draft decision from the arbitration tribunal and the ICC is now undertaking a final review.
Tullow expects the results of the award "imminently" and said further updates will be made in due course.
This relates to two disputed tax assessments received from the Ghana Revenue Authority amounting to USD387 million.
Shares in Tullow Oil fell back 9.1% to 21.19 pence in London on Tuesday. It has a market value of GBP311.5 million.
In a brief statement, Kosmos, which has oil and gas assets in the Gulf of Mexico, Ghana and Equatorial Guinea, said "it does not intend to make a firm offer for Tullow at this time".
Shares in Kosmos were 10% higher at 261.90p for a market value of USD1.28 billion.
Last Thursday, Tullow Oil had said it was in early stage talks over a possible all-share takeover bid from Kosmos. |
Correction
No offer has been made |
All I know is, this is a sh*t share, wish I had never heard of it...end off. |
RD was relying on the most recent well performing and it didn't. If you track back he also completely misjudged the hedging strategy over his tenure. For sure it's a gamble but he was behind the curve in a rising and then falling oil market. It's game over here unfortunately. |
Out at 27 ages ago Too many dreamers pumping it and given that most business in India is by corrupt means Dhir just milked it |
They actually didn't see the books, but here's the thing, they didn't need to. There debt is public knowledge. Its not rocket science. All that changed was the Kosmos share price tanked and they bottled it. A clumsy attempt to get a bargain and it backfired on them. |
Kosmos have seen the books. |
What's changed between now and before take over talks |
Glad I sold at 26p, Its looking very much like 10p is coming here now. |
(Sharecast News) - Tullow Oil tumbled on Tuesday after Kosmos Energy said it does not plan to make an offer for the oil and gas exploration company.
Kosmos did not provide any reasons for its decision, saying simply that it does not intend to make an offer "at this time".
Shares in Tullow surged last week after it confirmed it was in preliminary talks with Kosmos about a potential takeover.
Kosmos had until on 9 January 2025 to either announce a firm intention to make an offer or walk away.
At 1105 GMT, Tullow shares were down 8% at 21.44p. |
Could it be a short attack on bad news? |
Looks like this will go sub 20 |
"now they can get on with the job paying down the debt."
NPV(10) when they should be using NPV(20) is going to leave a debt principal repayment shortfall, not on the 2025s but on the 2026s. Equity value accretion, even if the accounts make it look like it is happening, is RD moon howling - that is why RD is leaving. Unfortunately, WShak and Loglorry have it right (buying the bonds); Bootycall has it wrong. JMV. PS. I am not knowledgeable enough to know if a fire sale of Lokichar will change my analysis.
PPS. Why have two directors (the CFO and the Non Exec) bought shares with real money? I cannot answer that. It seems madness to me. Why are 4 analysts rating this a strong buy? Again madness. Why is Stockopedia rating this a "neutral" investment style? I do not know; it should be "value trap". JMV. |
46% down ytd there must be something really wrong here, as allegedly we are in a better financial situation than we have been for years |
That offer may not have been serious but it may have been a smoke screen for another... |
Temporary halt on trading LSE |
Not surprised at all. I never thought it was a serious offer - how could it be made before the outcome of the International Arbitration Court is known. |
We don't know what happened but it could just have been a lot of nonsense instigated by Rahul in a vain attempt to protect his options? |
Best result, now they can get on with the job paying down the debt. |
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