pally, says a lot for TLW's real value, tbf why would anyone want to buy a company so heavily in debt ? |
I think this will be taken out by a lowball.
I've switched back into Wood Group - a much better prospect |
Topped up this morning, let’s see Friday 13th and all. |
What happened to all the opening predictions |
Now we know why5 December 2024 - Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) today announces that Rahul Dhir will step down as Chief Executive Officer and resign from the Board during 2025 to pursue other business, academic and family interests. The Board has initiated a process to find his successor. Rahul will stay in his role until a date to be determined to ensure a smooth transition. |
Spivs cashing in illegal gains…once they wash out, I expect the shares to move up substantially. There is a bit of a false market so long as the ICC tax arbitration result is unknown. If Tullow are successful, the refinancing should be relatively straightforward and the shares should move nearer to 40-60p range. If there is progress in Kenya we will be north of 100p….all in my humble opinion of course . Booty |
Market is normally right Mkt cap 400m plus 1.4B debt for 60,000bpd |
The For sale sign is up and will focus minds over the holiday period,
Some years ago Ghana stopped Kosmos from selling up ,I wonder if Springfeild will emerge as preferred bidder.
interesting times. |
KOS have everything their way - they can take TLW out at a discount... |
 Statement Regarding a Possible All-Share Offer for Tullow Oil plc by Kosmos Energy Ltd.
December 12, 2024 03:04 PM Eastern Standard Time
DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Kosmos Energy Ltd. (“Kosmos”; or the “Company”;) (NYSE: KOS) notes today’s announcement by Tullow Oil plc (“Tullow”;) (LSE: TLW) regarding a potential transaction involving Tullow and Kosmos and confirms that it is in very preliminary discussions with Tullow regarding a possible all-share offer by Kosmos for Tullow.
There can be no certainty that any offer will be made, nor as to the terms on which any offer might be made. Pursuant to Rule 2.5 of the Code, Kosmos reserves the right to vary the form and/or mix of the offer consideration and vary the transaction structure. A further announcement will be made as and when appropriate.
As stated in today’s announcement by Tullow, in accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, Kosmos is required, by not later than 5.00 p.m. on 9 January 2025, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for Tullow in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline can be extended with the consent of the Takeover Panel in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.
ABOUT KOSMOS
Kosmos is a full-cycle deepwater, independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused along the offshore Atlantic Margins. Our key assets include production offshore Ghana, Equatorial Guinea and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as well as a world-class gas development offshore Mauritania and Senegal. We also pursue a proven basin exploration program in Equatorial Guinea, Ghana and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Kosmos is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange and is traded under the ticker symbol KOS. As an ethical and transparent company, Kosmos is committed to doing things the right way. The Company’s Business Principles articulate our commitment to transparency, ethics, human rights, safety and the environment. Read more about this commitment in our Corporate Responsibility Report. For additional information, visit www.kosmosenergy.com.
NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN, INTO OR FROM ANY JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE RELEVANT LAWS OF SUCH JURISDICTION.
THIS IS NOT AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF A FIRM INTENTION TO MAKE AN OFFER UNDER RULE 2.7 OF THE CITY CODE ON TAKEOVERS AND MERGERS (THE "CODE") AND THERE CAN BE NO CERTAINTY THAT AN OFFER WILL BE MADE, NOR AS TO THE TERMS ON WHICH ANY OFFER MIGHT BE MADE. |
I'm up 6p in the last few weeks, I'm happy with that,never pays to be greedy. |
The fact the share price has done little suggests it won't exactly be a great offer if one comes at all the debt has always been the problem . They might get offered £1 for the company due to dept ..we will see but I wouldn't get your hopes up too much as the share price hasn't moved on the potential offer |
Take a profit and move. |
Comment; Interesting times. Note; some who still stand to never regain their losses post sceptical remarks as to the potential offer/terms. Recent investors; good job. |
@booty - Thx mate. I've also enjoyed reading your posts over the years. Feel we're getting near the end here. One way, or another. KOS US quote closed -13.75%. So clearly their US holders are not exactly happy. |
@xxnjr
Sorry xxnjr you have made some excellent posts over the years which i have greatly appreciated …just this one sounds a tad short sighted. Many people are left looking at UK accounting standards for E&P rather than reserves in the ground that should be producing…which in Tullows case awaiting two FDPs is crazy. Kosmos recently refinanced much of the same asset base. If we get to the stage where we are expected to payback all debt without a replacement facilty you might have grounds…but that is a bit like failing to treat a company as though it is not a going concern which is not where we are. The main risk to Tullow is a rapid decline in the oil price whilst it has not properly hedged its cash flows. Otherwise the assets are fine and the main outflows are well behind us …IMO of course. Booty |
@booty
Let me explain! I just think there's a real possibility that Tullow won't be able (on their own) to refinance their 2026 bonds. Agree Kosmos probably have a better understanding of the asset than TLW, but haven't Kosmos already told us that in future, TEN will have to "compete for capital with the rest of their portfolio" which was kind of flagging up their unwillingness to sanction further TEN FID's? Anyways, whatever happens good to know I've given you many laughs over the years! :) |
Bootycall,Tullow are stuck between a rock and a hard place so I doubt KOS will be too generous.Tullow have already said that they have the money to cover the junior 7% March 2025 maturity.However, they have a major issue with the senior secured 2026 bonds, which are actually my biggest position. They need to either pay these off (without any prospect of having the cash flow to do so) or extend the maturities.In order to extend maturities, those bondholders will want a return that is equivalent to the existing YTM. They obviously can't do that and keep the equity viable so will probably get a chunk of equity instead in order to agree to a restructuring.If KOS can get a deal done, that should be the optimal result for Tullow shareholders as they will be diluted enormously if they default if trying to go alone. Look what happened to GKP when they left things too late.The KOS share price reaction is currently worrying as their own shareholders might put a spoke in things, and stop them giving any value to Tullow equity. Against that, if they don't offer enough, Tullow senior bondholders and other lenders may end up with the whole thing as part of a restructuring effort.As this is an all share offer, and cost savings will be substantial, there will be a price where KOS can get a good deal, Tullow shareholders get something meaningful, and creditors are happy as they get their money back. |
@xxnjr
“TLW (IMO) are effectively bankrupt so deal may go through.”
Thanks for the laugh . Only a ridiculous ending to a spurious tax arbitration case can bring you to that bizarre conclusion.
Let’s see which way that goes. I am pretty confident Tullow will win hands down. Maybe go speak to the bankers who provide the recently extended stand by facility or Vitol ?
Up until last week the bonds were trading at close to par so they did not agree with you either !
I think Kosmos know the asset a little better. An FDP approval for Ten is probably worth several hundred million after all the assets had to be written down to the first break on the FPSO. The new administration which has talked of a tax amnesty
In Ghana takes over on the 7th January. Interesting timing for Kosmos to strike …dont you think ?
Booty
DYOR |
Well done Wshak. |
https://x.com/wshak1/status/1867292621913391135?s=61&t=iNmKiKsOAdWNrvKWvU8FsAThe bonds are soaring with talk of this deal.They had fallen with news of CEO walking and sudden (unjustified) worries over the 2025 maturities in a few months.I was buying the 2025 maturities yesterday at sub 84c. |
All of TLW's bonds have crashed to 85%. There has clearly been leakage in the market as to what is going on seeing as the share price volumes have spiked. Are the bonds falling to reflect what an eventual deal may look like. Have no idea. It's way above my pay grade!
But agree zingaro KOS will be fully aware of Ghana potential and will refinance at a lower cost than TLW could have done. |
Well I am sure Kosmos know the real potential (or otherwise) of Jubilee. They should also get better debt deals. It will be interesting to see what they think is a realistic price. Perhaps somebody can rework the interest paid pa, when the debt costs only 8% for example. |
KOS stock already worth 10% less than yesterday.
A KOS+TLW combo
(assuming BP can get to grips with the GTA FLNG new development - a rather large if given stuttering progress to date)
would have
Production of about 150K boepd
Debt of c.$4.1bn.
TLW (IMO) are effectively bankrupt so deal may go through. |
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