@booty - Thx mate. I've also enjoyed reading your posts over the years. Feel we're getting near the end here. One way, or another. KOS US quote closed -13.75%. So clearly their US holders are not exactly happy. |
@xxnjr
Sorry xxnjr you have made some excellent posts over the years which i have greatly appreciated …just this one sounds a tad short sighted. Many people are left looking at UK accounting standards for E&P rather than reserves in the ground that should be producing…which in Tullows case awaiting two FDPs is crazy. Kosmos recently refinanced much of the same asset base. If we get to the stage where we are expected to payback all debt without a replacement facilty you might have grounds…but that is a bit like failing to treat a company as though it is not a going concern which is not where we are. The main risk to Tullow is a rapid decline in the oil price whilst it has not properly hedged its cash flows. Otherwise the assets are fine and the main outflows are well behind us …IMO of course. Booty |
@booty
Let me explain! I just think there's a real possibility that Tullow won't be able (on their own) to refinance their 2026 bonds. Agree Kosmos probably have a better understanding of the asset than TLW, but haven't Kosmos already told us that in future, TEN will have to "compete for capital with the rest of their portfolio" which was kind of flagging up their unwillingness to sanction further TEN FID's? Anyways, whatever happens good to know I've given you many laughs over the years! :) |
 Bootycall,Tullow are stuck between a rock and a hard place so I doubt KOS will be too generous.Tullow have already said that they have the money to cover the junior 7% March 2025 maturity.However, they have a major issue with the senior secured 2026 bonds, which are actually my biggest position. They need to either pay these off (without any prospect of having the cash flow to do so) or extend the maturities.In order to extend maturities, those bondholders will want a return that is equivalent to the existing YTM. They obviously can't do that and keep the equity viable so will probably get a chunk of equity instead in order to agree to a restructuring.If KOS can get a deal done, that should be the optimal result for Tullow shareholders as they will be diluted enormously if they default if trying to go alone. Look what happened to GKP when they left things too late.The KOS share price reaction is currently worrying as their own shareholders might put a spoke in things, and stop them giving any value to Tullow equity. Against that, if they don't offer enough, Tullow senior bondholders and other lenders may end up with the whole thing as part of a restructuring effort.As this is an all share offer, and cost savings will be substantial, there will be a price where KOS can get a good deal, Tullow shareholders get something meaningful, and creditors are happy as they get their money back. |
@xxnjr
“TLW (IMO) are effectively bankrupt so deal may go through.”
Thanks for the laugh . Only a ridiculous ending to a spurious tax arbitration case can bring you to that bizarre conclusion.
Let’s see which way that goes. I am pretty confident Tullow will win hands down. Maybe go speak to the bankers who provide the recently extended stand by facility or Vitol ?
Up until last week the bonds were trading at close to par so they did not agree with you either !
I think Kosmos know the asset a little better. An FDP approval for Ten is probably worth several hundred million after all the assets had to be written down to the first break on the FPSO. The new administration which has talked of a tax amnesty
In Ghana takes over on the 7th January. Interesting timing for Kosmos to strike …dont you think ?
Booty
DYOR |
Well done Wshak. |
https://x.com/wshak1/status/1867292621913391135?s=61&t=iNmKiKsOAdWNrvKWvU8FsAThe bonds are soaring with talk of this deal.They had fallen with news of CEO walking and sudden (unjustified) worries over the 2025 maturities in a few months.I was buying the 2025 maturities yesterday at sub 84c. |
All of TLW's bonds have crashed to 85%. There has clearly been leakage in the market as to what is going on seeing as the share price volumes have spiked. Are the bonds falling to reflect what an eventual deal may look like. Have no idea. It's way above my pay grade!
But agree zingaro KOS will be fully aware of Ghana potential and will refinance at a lower cost than TLW could have done. |
Well I am sure Kosmos know the real potential (or otherwise) of Jubilee. They should also get better debt deals. It will be interesting to see what they think is a realistic price. Perhaps somebody can rework the interest paid pa, when the debt costs only 8% for example. |
KOS stock already worth 10% less than yesterday.
A KOS+TLW combo
(assuming BP can get to grips with the GTA FLNG new development - a rather large if given stuttering progress to date)
would have
Production of about 150K boepd
Debt of c.$4.1bn.
TLW (IMO) are effectively bankrupt so deal may go through. |
Got a break even of just over 30p on these so hoping to make some profit |
Recall what I posted in 60846 after the RD leaving RNS
"Let us hope Rahul doesn't sell share holders down the river to save his own skin (to monetise his share options)."
The rat is now selling the company to monetise his options!
Never trusted Dhir one cent. |
The RNS says all paper. I doubt they'll much of a premium and will be in KOS paper. I hold a lot of TLW 10.25% bonds. |
Whatever the offer is it'll be no where near my break even! Perhaps the offer will involve some Kos paper |
Wow not one of my best decision making days......I didn't see this one coming...!!
What could KOS offer?
I hope the shorters have closed out.... |
All share offer from Kosmos |
I think it's the way it's been written, either way he was a former president now back in power. Cheers |
Change in Govt in Ghamna is probably behind rise, move away from current lot who tried to nail the indistry to the wall to solve their economic problems which only resulted it drop off in interest and decline in Ghana O&G and reduced revenue (killing golden goose).... replaced by prior O&G friendly leader - so I guess hope is this will be a reset for the company in country... all major posts, including those in key ministries - Energy, finance and GRA will be changed. |
Something else going on I suspect. Recent rise on big volume somewhat surprising. |
We usually 9 times out of 10 get a Christmas rally any time now this is usually when a lot of shorts are being closed. |
Jug - you could very possibly be right!
Good luck all |
28p by Christmas & an half decent CEO will see these 30p Plus next year, might even see that by Christmas, I think 22.5 is long gone IMEO |
A nice 4m share buy from yesterday reported early today.
I sold out on early strength this am.
I'd like to see this pull back to 22.5p before a sustained attack on higher levels and I've placed a limit buy order in the hope if it getting filled on the run down to Christmas.
But this could move very quickly on the right news... |
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