I see this hitting all time lows next year when debt has to be renegotiated just as Jubilee production falls off a cliff. It's gonna be brutal. WW3 required to boost poo over $100. Else its curtains. |
I have waited a long time for this to get back to 60p, I hope my belief is vincated in 2025.... |
That's a further delay of about 1 year. (Pre-Rahul era) deal details here
Uganda was a fairly simple transaction and is now one of Total's highest impact projects. OP needs to ave >$62 annually. So quite likely to receive contingent payments. None of Rahul's deals have resulted in contingent payments being received, as he agreed either to unrealistic production targets. Or, in the case of Dussafu Gabon, where the FPSO is now running at maximum capacity and have discovered truckloads of new oil and even that hasn't resulted in contingent payments, as new oil discoveries were excluded from the deal! |
First pipelined oil from Uganda 2027? Don't TLW get a payment ?
www.worldenergydata.org/uganda-targets-2027-start-for-worlds-longest-heated-oil-pipeline/ |
Totally agree xxnjr…. The sooner we say goodbye to Rahul the better. He fails to impart a vision for the Company which has a follow on impact on the cost of capital. He has not been helped by the behaviour of the Governments of Kenya and Ghana ,but that is where a really good CEO earns his dues. His proposed corporate transactions have also been a big disappointment.
Tullow has disguised its true worth by directing huge cashflows to a major capex programme and to fulfilling its debt repayment obligations to the bondholders…as an understandable priority…once the bonds are refinanced in coming months ,we should finally move to a growth phase and the shares should rerate . Unbelievable value here. Booty |
The stuff sold has performed far better for the new owners than the stuff Tullow retained and increased exposure to. Money was wasted drilling a huge number of wells on outdated seismic in Ghana. The only ones to benefit from Rahul's actions have been banks, bond holders, commodity trading houses etc etc and acquirers of former Tullow assets like Panoro. Even worse our failed CEO tends to live in a parallel universe of $90 oil and flag up what seem to be unrealistic narratives given the promised developments/upside never materialise. Rahul needs to go as the market has lost confidence in him. Quite how our failing CEO remains in place is a complete mystery (just IMHO). |
Simple facts is unable to turn a decent profit on huge revenues . The company is bloated and needs to cut costs massively and scale back spending otherwise it will be game over here . That's why the share price continues to fall and mkt cap decrease accordingly .
This has been the issue for some time now they coats and lack of profits aligned with big debts are all reasons to avoid this company unless you like a long term gamble with poor odds imo |
 Bit of debt background
Borrowings
On 17 May 2021, the Group completed a comprehensive refinancing of its debt with the issuance of five-year $1.8 billion Senior Secured Notes (2026 Notes) and a new undrawn $500 million Super Senior Revolving Credit Facility (SSRCF) which will be primarily used for working capital purposes.
The 2026 Notes have been used to (i) repay all amounts outstanding under, and cancel all commitments made available pursuant to, the Group’s RBL Facility, (ii) redeem in full the Group’s senior notes due 2022, (iii) repay in full and cancel the Group’s convertible bonds and (iv) pay fees and expenses incurred in connection with the transactions. The 2026 Notes, maturing in May 2026, require an annual prepayment of $100 million of the outstanding principal amount plus accrued and unpaid interest with the balance due on maturity.
The Senior Notes due 2025 is payable in a single payment in March 2025.
The Revolving Credit Facility, maturing in December 2024, comprises (i) a $500 million revolving credit facility and (ii) a $100 million letter of credit facility.
The 2026 Notes and the SSRCF are senior secured obligations of Tullow Oil Plc and are guaranteed by certain of the
Group’s subsidiaries.
SSRCF covenants
The SSRCF does not have any financial maintenance covenants. Availability under the $500 million cash tranche of the facility is determined on an annual basis with reference to the Net Present Value of the 2P reserves of the Group (2P NPV) at the end of the preceding calendar year. SSRCF debt capacity is calculated as 2P NPV divided by 1.1x less senior secured debt outstanding. |
This morning;Tullow Oil PLC Tullow secures commitments for extension of RCFSource: RNS Regulatory NewsRNS Number : 7017MTullow Oil PLC19 November 2024 |
Started loading this AM. |
So a VLCC is part loading at Bonny/Nigeria, after which it's apparently collecting a cargo from Jubilee. It possibly may arrive sooner than predicted by marine traffic, but if it doesn't that suggests production is now kind of c.82.5K!
Update on my previous above. The tanker from Bonny was cancelled and replaced with another from NW Africa that arrived 9am this morning. It hasn't started loading as standing off about 30kms south of the FPSO. Will most likely start loading tomorrow which again suggests c.82.5K. |
So if you can contain your unbridled enthusiasm until the 28th you may have some of your questions answered. However knowing your determination to extract information for every cent of expenditure and where it came from and to where it will be assigned I doubt you will be satisfied. |
Perhaps some unplanned maintenance to get the output up. Perhaps this leaked and is the reason for the Oct-Nov fall in share price. |
Rec'd the following response to a Q e-mailed to IR
"Yes, the flotel is contracted to support both the 4D seismic programme to be completed in early 2025 and the scheduled Jubilee maintenance programme.
And yes, a November Trading Update is scheduled for 28 November 2024." |
I'm sure they will call you before they order the sandwiches for the next board meeting. |
"xxnjr - 06 Nov 2024 - 13:28:16 - 60782 of 60797
Different subject. A bit odd. According to Marine Traffic a 60,000 ton 500 bed 'Floatel' is on its way to Jubilee with an ETA of 13/Nov. Must be an error surely?"
Well it's the 13th today and a 500 bed hotel is indeed near Jubilee! Even more surprised to uncover this
"New Contract Awarded: Arendal Spirit to Support Tullow Ghana's FPSO Maintenance Campaign
07 NOV 2024
We are excited to announce a new flotel contract with Tullow Ghana to support planned maintenance activities on their FPSO in Jubilee Field offshore Ghana.
This six-month contract, set to commence in November 2024, will utilize the Arendal Spirit DP3, a 500-pax accommodation unit, providing safe and dependable lodging for personnel engaged in maintenance activities. Our partnership with Cross Energy Ghana makes this project possible, demonstrating our shared commitment to advancing energy support services across the region.
We anticipate a successful campaign and look forward to further strengthening our relationship with both Tullow Ghana and Cross Energy Ghana."
All this seems new to me! Shouldn't we have been told about this. Leasing a 50,000 ton dynamically positioned 500 bed hotel for 6 months plus whatever the upgrade will cost sounds expensive? Will production be effected? What is the scope of the work? |
This share really is a shower of sh*t..... |
Yet again if it does....... |
So a VLCC is part loading at Bonny/Nigeria, after which it's apparently collecting a cargo from Jubilee. It possibly may arrive sooner than predicted by marine traffic, but if it doesn't that suggests production is now kind of c.82.5K! |
The pay n perks they dish out are off the scale. Most uk oilies are the same. |
This cr*p is back on it's knees, when poo goes up this goes no where, when poo goes down this drips down a drain. .sh*t show... |
Never mind apologies from Rahul, what about apologies from the board that let his performance go unchallenged for 4 years and not demanding better, on behalf of shareholders. No accountability in this company whatsoever. |
Whilst that is true zingaro, the sad truth is that all Rahul's lofty predictions of jam tomorrow for Kenya, TEN, Jubilee, Cairn Merger, a meaningful Ghana gas sales agreement, Jubilee "at 107K" etc etc have been empty promises. What is annoying is Rahul seems to think he is doing a good job! A bit of humility and an apology to shareholders for making empty promises and strategic errors is what is called for IMHO. Not that you will get it. |
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