Whilst that is true zingaro, the sad truth is that all Rahul's lofty predictions of jam tomorrow for Kenya, TEN, Jubilee, Cairn Merger, a meaningful Ghana gas sales agreement, Jubilee "at 107K" etc etc have been empty promises. What is annoying is Rahul seems to think he is doing a good job! A bit of humility and an apology to shareholders for making empty promises and strategic errors is what is called for IMHO. Not that you will get it. |
Sorry 1,591 days and counting! |
Apparently Rahul's latest 'plate spinning' wheeze is to suggest developing Kenya will solve South Sudan's oil evacuation issues. He'll say anything to give false hope to shareholders and avoid the inevitable Kenya write down! |
OMG Rahul has completely lost the plot (again) in a very Rahul 'posterchild' way. He needs firing immediately.
It's 1,498 days and counting and not one cent of value has been added for shareholders. The company has no future with this ineffective, failing CEO.
It's incredible that he thinks Tullow is a 'posterchild' or whatever adjective/noun he used in this interview. It and its CEO have become a laughing stock due to failure to deliver.
What we need is a CEO who talks about and delivers positive, consistent shareholder returns. And talks not waffle but about the actual stuff that matters, producing oil and gas. |
 The Q from the KOS call, which is why I suspect the rig is coming in slightly earlier than they previously anticipated.
Charles Meade. And then on the '25 Jubilee drilling, I wonder if you could talk a little bit more about what the priorities are there? I mean obviously, you're trying to get the FPSO up to capacity. But I imagine that whatever you learn from this - from your 4D seismic shoot, it's going to be - not going to have enough time to - for that to inform your '25 drilling, but would maybe confirm that and just talk about the goals of the '25 drilling program are?
Answer "..... We'll start at the next phase of drilling on Jubilee, Charles. And as we've sort of remarked, I think that I believe the 4D is going to have a big impact on that. And it's - the actual line - the acquisition techniques, it's a towed streamer. It (the acquisition technique) hasn't actually moved massively. But clearly, the processing has both in terms of the quality of what you get and actually the timeliness of it, you get the product a lot earlier, yes.
So we have a sort of a challenge to manage when we start (drilling), the earlier we start the better, but how do we ensure that we're fully incorporating that learning. Now there are a couple of wells where we know that the 4D is not going to have a big impact. So we have sort of a couple of wells that are secure, from that perspective. And then, you start to feather in the additional information that you get from the 4D seismic.
So in a way, it's just getting the right balance of how do you ensure you're taking full advantage of the seismic, but not waiting too long, by where you're diminishing the impact of the infill program. So I think, we've gotten the balance of that right now.
===============================================================
Different subject. A bit odd. According to Marine Traffic a 60,000 ton 500 bed 'Floatel' is on its way to Jubilee with an ETA of 13/Nov. Must be an error surely? |
Lets hope that expected trading statement actually moves the price up and not drip drip down like at present. If cr*p ever hits 60p again, that is me gone, this has been another nightmare share like PFC.... |
There's a trading statement in a week or so, that should give you all the info that you need. |
True, we get more information from you and KOS than Tullow |
It would help if the company were more pro-active in communicating with their owners (the shareholders)! I know they are very good at answering Q's emailed in to IR but RNS 'operations updates' are few and far between. |
Not moved on from it, just fed up of the drip drip down of sp |
Judging by the number of posts these days it seems everyone has given up and moved on!
Anyway FWIW there wasn't much of interest on the KOSMOS call. The only tit-bit was that the first 2 wells to be drilled in Ghana when a rig returns may be drilled off legacy seismic as the new 4D seismic probably won't be ready/analysed to inform drilling location of 1st, maybe 2nd of new wells. Perhaps decline/underperformance has necessitated an earlier rig return than anticipated? |
Jolly good. Meeting expectations. That's all we need whilst paying down the debt. |
Latest J cargo loading today suggests no improvement for October. Similar to previous month. Possibly a touch weaker.
======================================================
Also KOS results out today
"Ghana
At Jubilee (38.6% working interest), oil production in the third quarter averaged approximately 87,600 bopd gross with year-to-date production averaging approximately 89,300 bopd gross. Voidage replacement during the third quarter was approximately 90%, below target as a result of lower than planned power generation uptime. Water injection has been restored to record levels of around 300,000 barrels of water per day and should enhance voidage replacement. Jubilee FPSO reliability remains high with uptime approximately 99% for the third quarter.
The three year drilling campaign in Ghana concluded in June following the completion of a final water injector well. The partnership has contracted a new 4D seismic survey over the Jubilee field in early 2025, which is expected to take approximately two months. This seismic data will be processed with state of the art technology to support the high grading of drilling locations for the next phases of drilling. Kosmos is currently working with the operator in Ghana to optimize the 2025 drilling schedule with a rig targeted to arrive in country around the middle of the year.
In the third quarter, Jubilee gas production net to Kosmos was approximately 4,700 boepd. As previously communicated, the onshore gas processing plant that receives Jubilee gas was offline for approximately two weeks for planned maintenance during the quarter. Gas production is now back at approximately 6,000 boepd net to Kosmos.
At TEN (20.4% working interest), oil production averaged approximately 18,500 bopd gross for the third quarter, slightly above expectations. Uptime on the TEN FPSO was approximately 99% for the third quarter." |
But probable from your calculations is not exact, and more than likely to come within guidance. Meeting expectations. |
Analysis of SEPT Monthly Petrocom data vs previous month.
Jubilee
3.5% monthly decline to 84,612 bopd
scf/bbl stable at 2,789 vs 2,797 Aug
GOR stable at 31.73% vs 31.79% Aug
Assoc gas production 3.7% lower at 235.98 mmscfd
Gas export to GNGC 78.70 mmscfd
TEN
2.69% monthly decline to 18,097 bopd
scf/bbl increased 2.7% from 8,705 to 8,944
GOR increased from 59.20% to 59.85%
Assoc gas production stable at 161.85 mmscfd
Gas export to GNGC: 1.78mmscfd
===========================================================================
Above roughly means
JUB 3Q averaged c.87.5K
TEN 3Q averaged c.18.5K
If 4Q production stayed at current levels TLW would just about come within the lower end of FY guidance [55K bopd w/int]. But as further decline is perhaps a more likely scenario over 4Q it looks like they will miss the lower end of guidance for the 2nd yr running! |
Shouldn't there be a minus in there seeing as TLW lost £110m last year?
It remains to be seen if 2024FY is another loss..... |
P/E of 1.7? |
Article thx to antonvb in another place. Basically Ghana is in the E&P slow lane due to government ineptitude. Gh.gov need to wake up. Little evidence (so far) they will. I guess we have to wait for the election (soon?). But if I were in TLW HQ I'd be looking to enter Angola, or Nigeria with acquisition of mature assets. Aidan Heavey used to say "If we enter Nigeria it will be because we failed". Well they have failed - it's time to diversify.
Or are we just going to be absorbed by Seplat at little, or no premium?
Dorowot (or whatever his name is) owns about 15% to 20% of both SEPL and TLW. |
DECOM: Mauritania seems to have gone smoothly (assuming all of the DECOM work there is done now).
".....The work is estimated to take 75 days in total, with commencement of the project starting on the 16th of August 2024."
".....Island Drilling Company is pleased to announce the successful completion of its recent contract with Tullow Oil. The operations, conducted in Mauritania from August 16th to October 15th." |
Yep...the Jubilee reservoir is finally in serious decline. SE Jubilee was a desperate attempt to maintain plateau. It didn't work. 80k at year end. 60k next year. They don't go on forever. |
Analysis of Aug Monthly Petrocom data vs previous month.
Jubilee
3.16% monthly decline to 87,677 bopd
scf/bbl increased 4.3% from 2,682 to 2,797
GOR increased from 30.89% to 31.79%
Assoc gas production 245.19 mmscfd (which is about the maximum the FPSO can handle)
Gas export to GNGC halved to 50.96 mmscfd (as GNGC not paying!)
TEN
0.49% monthly decline to 18,597 bopd
scf/bbl increased 1.2% from 8,599 to 8,705
GOR increased from 58.90% to 59.20%
Assoc gas production 161.88 mmscfd
Gas export to GNGC: Nil
===========================================================================
If you don't pay for gas you don't get gas!
TEN holding up well. OTOH Jubilee tanker offloads suggest production has fallen further to c.85K currently. GOR could be the limiting factor now? Until new wells drilled in about 9 months? |
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