But probable from your calculations is not exact, and more than likely to come within guidance. Meeting expectations. |
Analysis of SEPT Monthly Petrocom data vs previous month.
Jubilee
3.5% monthly decline to 84,612 bopd
scf/bbl stable at 2,789 vs 2,797 Aug
GOR stable at 31.73% vs 31.79% Aug
Assoc gas production 3.7% lower at 235.98 mmscfd
Gas export to GNGC 78.70 mmscfd
TEN
2.69% monthly decline to 18,097 bopd
scf/bbl increased 2.7% from 8,705 to 8,944
GOR increased from 59.20% to 59.85%
Assoc gas production stable at 161.85 mmscfd
Gas export to GNGC: 1.78mmscfd
===========================================================================
Above roughly means
JUB 3Q averaged c.87.5K
TEN 3Q averaged c.18.5K
If 4Q production stayed at current levels TLW would just about come within the lower end of FY guidance [55K bopd w/int]. But as further decline is perhaps a more likely scenario over 4Q it looks like they will miss the lower end of guidance for the 2nd yr running! |
Shouldn't there be a minus in there seeing as TLW lost £110m last year?
It remains to be seen if 2024FY is another loss..... |
P/E of 1.7? |
Article thx to antonvb in another place. Basically Ghana is in the E&P slow lane due to government ineptitude. Gh.gov need to wake up. Little evidence (so far) they will. I guess we have to wait for the election (soon?). But if I were in TLW HQ I'd be looking to enter Angola, or Nigeria with acquisition of mature assets. Aidan Heavey used to say "If we enter Nigeria it will be because we failed". Well they have failed - it's time to diversify.
Or are we just going to be absorbed by Seplat at little, or no premium?
Dorowot (or whatever his name is) owns about 15% to 20% of both SEPL and TLW. |
DECOM: Mauritania seems to have gone smoothly (assuming all of the DECOM work there is done now).
".....The work is estimated to take 75 days in total, with commencement of the project starting on the 16th of August 2024."
".....Island Drilling Company is pleased to announce the successful completion of its recent contract with Tullow Oil. The operations, conducted in Mauritania from August 16th to October 15th." |
Yep...the Jubilee reservoir is finally in serious decline. SE Jubilee was a desperate attempt to maintain plateau. It didn't work. 80k at year end. 60k next year. They don't go on forever. |
Analysis of Aug Monthly Petrocom data vs previous month.
Jubilee
3.16% monthly decline to 87,677 bopd
scf/bbl increased 4.3% from 2,682 to 2,797
GOR increased from 30.89% to 31.79%
Assoc gas production 245.19 mmscfd (which is about the maximum the FPSO can handle)
Gas export to GNGC halved to 50.96 mmscfd (as GNGC not paying!)
TEN
0.49% monthly decline to 18,597 bopd
scf/bbl increased 1.2% from 8,599 to 8,705
GOR increased from 58.90% to 59.20%
Assoc gas production 161.88 mmscfd
Gas export to GNGC: Nil
===========================================================================
If you don't pay for gas you don't get gas!
TEN holding up well. OTOH Jubilee tanker offloads suggest production has fallen further to c.85K currently. GOR could be the limiting factor now? Until new wells drilled in about 9 months? |
Will $75 OP hold today? |
Interesting trading patterns here again.
Similar to what we saw on the recent run up to 40p.
I'm invested here again, with a target 30-40% gain from current levels.
OP appears erratic at present, but should recover with reducing inflation and interest rate pressures.
Good luck all.
WBP |
Who wouldn't want to be in oilers over this weekend? |
(off topic) Deepsea Bollsta ETA Ghana for Afina-1X DST: 18/Oct
so I guess Chevron's Namibia well will follow? (not other way round as I suggested before) |
Who wouldn't want to be in oilers over this weekend? |
Africa Oil week is on. Whilst Tullow are 'attending', it doesn't look like any of them are presenting in the sessions, nor are we a sponsor this time around. Quite a lot of interesting talks though. ExxonMobil, ENI, Chevron, Equinor, NNPC and Seplat to name some seem heavily engaged. Several sessions on Ghana exploration potential in light of discoveries next door in Cote d'Ivoire. Total Energies keeping a low profile, as I presume Patrick P doesn't like giving away expensively acquired geological insights for free! Anyway the program is here |
Forget the accounting treatment and just count the cash |
 @xxnjr Thank you for clarifying…really bugged me that i could not lay my hands on the charter schedule. Now consider the accounting treatment on Ten which calculates a negative value for the license based on early lease surrender and a large negative book value of US$300m ? from memory. In contrast , a sensible well programme on Ten to exploit the considerable reserves would write back large sums. The issue is more about establishing markets for the gas and condensates in the reserve mix ..and dealing with the antics of the current government in Ghana. My view.. there will be wholesale changes a month after the December 7th ? elections and the inauguration of a new Cabinet. In my opinion, to waste the resource in Ten is madness with all the facilities in place. Having said that I take on board the comments of Kosmos on the prospect inventories for both fields and which provides the best returns. It is important to remember the political pressure as the very generous cost recovery terms would deprive short term revenues for the host nation because of the way “cost” oil and “profit” oil is split. Booty
Please do not rely on the facts or opinions expressed in the above post when making an investment decision. |
Gabon: After about 60 days on location, the Axima rig drilling the Sarafina well has now moved to a new location on the 100% Perenco operated Barbier field. |
@bootycall. Well done. You nailed it! :)
reply from IR
"Morning xx,
That’s right. As we stand the annual net TLW cost of the TEN FPSO lease is c.$130m. In 2027 this drops to c.50% of that, then continues to tail off to licence expiry in 2036.
Regards
Matthew" |
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-natural-gas-us-dollar-technical-analysis-in-the-face-of-geopolitical-uncertainty-1466796 |
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-natural-gas-us-dollar-technical-analysis-in-the-face-of-geopolitical-uncertainty-1466796 |
@bootycall. No worries and many thanks for that. That explains it. I had mistakenly assumed potential lease savings would start in 2025, but as you say, it seems end of 10 yr fixed term is sometime 2027, which probably explains why Rahul (to my knowledge) hasn't flagged up an exact number yet. Anyway I'll do as you suggest and post any reply received from IR here. |
I can smell the oil bears burning everywhere. "We will go lower than $60" they all screamed unanimously. Now they'll be covering shorts till $80, just when it will be time to close long and go short. |
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Flat-as-Traders-Await-Developments-in-the-Iran-Israel-Conflict.html |
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Flat-as-Traders-Await-Developments-in-the-Iran-Israel-Conflict.html |
Good News Waldron hope its Offshore Nigeria.
A surprise last week
Nigeria: Exxon plans $10 billion oil investment in Nigeria
30 Sep 2024 |
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