Tritax Eurobox Share Discussion Threads

[chucko1] 03/5/2024 16:30

And yet compounded returns on others (admittedly [mainly] in the US) are in the region of 13% - for 30 years. I think there are individual cases to be made rather than REITs being wholesale poor risk/rewards.

An example is RGL, of course. After COVID, the IM goes all-in on offices. Fine if it works, but leaving no breathing space in the event of issues. Oh, how there were issues!

PHP, by comparison, had returned 13% or so for 25 years, but is now somewhat short of that. I calculate around 10.5% - so even with the rise in rates smashing the share price the past 18 months, it continues to make the positive case.

But you had to own PHP and not RGL!

[spectoacc] 03/5/2024 16:13

I liked the description of property co's [well done EBOX holders btw, been a great rally] as not participating much in economic growth, but getting killed every time there's a crisis.

Growth will lift rents over time, but the idea of eg a 10-bagger from a REIT, even from the very depths, seems incredibly unlikely. Meanwhile, plenty fall 90% or more (INTU, HMSO, CAL, IPU...), & the REIT regime seems to encourage over-investment at the top, over-paying divis, and fire sales at the bottom.


Eg CAL rebased (640p 2016 to 52p now, and down 77% over the past 5 years):


Edit - RGL is also down 77% over 5 years.

[hpcg] 03/5/2024 16:08

FFO will not support the current dividend when the green bond is refinanced. Probably. For whether an uncovered dividend can be paid, and for how long, is also unknown. Asset sales reducing debt, but also revenue, also unknown. Small differences to the interest rate on the refinancing can make a huge difference to the optics. So there is the double unknown as to how other investors treat the same information. Don't forget that when looked at with conventional metrics property companies are very very low quality businesses.

[brucie5] 03/5/2024 15:47

Indeed. I'm inclined to the view that if you buy value you do well to wait until the market sees what you did when you originally bought in. Otherwise you might as well by momentum instead?
Enjoy being right - for as long as you can! It's still at 33% discount yielding >7.5%.
Delighted to be marginally in profit after a year, but with dividends on top. Pretty much what I hoped for. Now let's see if it has any legs, which would be a bonus.

[rcturner2] 03/5/2024 15:39

Why would anyone sell this when the NAV is 100p and the yield is 7.5%?

[flyer61] 03/5/2024 15:38

Well it is this or SHED that gets a bid IMHO. So I stick for the moment.

[my retirement fund] 03/5/2024 15:09

I'm out, it's been such a dog that I'm prepared to take the risk, but if there is something afoot bid wise, best of luck !

[chucko1] 03/5/2024 14:13

I didn't resist enough - sold out a few days back!! Too many trading gains - always risk missing the big move, but actually has led, so far, to much better return on average risk employed.

That said, hardly surprised. CLI also fits a similar bill, and that is for keeps. Both of them have a Beta to medium rates that is really high.

[williamcooper104] 03/5/2024 14:01

Tempted to take some profits But resisting

[rat attack] 03/5/2024 13:11

Very much doubt there is an offer in the background, more likely to be EU rate cut on 6 June!

[skyship] 01/5/2024 16:42

Good to see these recovering well - now broken up through the 56p level.

An offer from somewhere would be nice of course; but perhaps just a level of sanity returning ahead of the Interim statement this month.

[hpcg] 29/4/2024 14:19

One thing we can likely say is that this is secure in the FTSE250 given all the take overs higher up.

[feuille] 29/4/2024 14:13

Filtering My Retirement Idiot.

[angora7] 29/4/2024 11:42

Need some verbs in there...

[my retirement fund] 29/4/2024 11:33

Takeover offer at 80p

[flyer61] 29/4/2024 11:16

Somethings brewing.....

[chucko1] 23/4/2024 10:06

All of these REITs are cheap and I see the rise of EBOX to be no different from, for example, the restoration of SUPR to the mid 70s (after the 60p target from Jefferies caused it to print 70p). It is quite possibly born from the acceptance of higher rates for longer, or the reversion of mid-term risk-free rates to the low to mid 4% range, but the lesser hands have marginally departed.

But, as I often say, this value - targeting an IRR of 12% or so - is symbiotic with a sensibly long holding period. And more than this by releasing MM holdings to trade against prices such as 48p on EBOX and 71p on SUPR (and other examples).

[loglorry1] 23/4/2024 09:50

Yes I was probably getting a little bit too excited. This has to be a candidate for a take over once there is more clarity on Euro rates and their refi. Bigger peers like Catena trade on much bigger multiples.

[williamcooper104] 22/4/2024 21:33

Don't think so; just getting bid up with everything else I think

[loglorry1] 22/4/2024 16:54

Bit of buying today for a change. Any news?

[ghhghh] 17/4/2024 16:04

Why no director buying and what will Segro buy? SERE too small, ASLI or EBOX?

[essentialinvestor] 16/4/2024 15:20

Interesting price again?.

[chucko1] 03/4/2024 13:43

A marginal miss on dividend cover in the short term should be pretty irrelevant when viewed alongside (weighed against) the targeted 4% per annum rises over the coming years.

It's going to be tight, especially if rates fall only slowly. However, the discordant rates music from the US has, in my opinion, (overly?) overspilled somewhat into the EU and UK where the fundamentals of each economy appear to be in meaningfully different states.

[williamcooper104] 03/4/2024 10:21

Unsecured debt so long as you don't have a lot of structurally senior secured debt won't be more expensive than secured debt (it can be cheaper)

[hpcg] 03/4/2024 10:17

At 4.75%, where CTP refinanced earlier in the year (actually 4.8% as a bit sold a bit below par) interest on the green bond moves from €4.75mn to €23.75mn which would be uncomfortable to maintain the dividend in the short term. There is just €2.25mn between 4.3% and 4.75% , so a bit more wiggle room but not a dramatically different picture.

I would expect holding company level debt to be higher than the single property SERE refinanced. Also, key word, secured. Seen like a vast amount of work to slice the entire bond onto individual properties, especially if everything is for sale, as early payment fees would kick in. Perhaps they should be doing that on their key long term holds, but with just a delta of 2mn in interest PA, 10mn over 5 years cost might eat up a chunk of that.

Edit - SERE data is consistent with what we know already, not a meaningful improvement.