Tritax Eurobox Share Discussion Threads

[makinbuks] 14/5/2024 10:20

I agree Bagpuss, "broadly in line" just sounds such a blatant cover up as is the absence of any comment on ROC on the deal. Never the less, further debt reduction selling assets in the region of published NAV is welcome. They just need to hunker down and concentrate on getting rents higher to secure the dividend post refi

[fordtin] 14/5/2024 09:22

re post #1539

to convert to sterling, shouldn't you use the prevailing rates at the time of each transaction?

one SEK was about 8.5p in June 2021, its now ~7.35p

[wskill] 14/5/2024 09:07

Yes its a small mature asset no redevelopment potential , asset value per share is still 84p after this sale plus a 8% yield.
NAV has fallen from 145p to 84p in this time frame since it bought this asset.

[advfndean] 14/5/2024 08:39

Ouch, lost a packet on that deal. Bought in June 2021 for SEK474M and have just sold for SEK385M = SEK89M / £6.5M loss.

[cwa1] 14/5/2024 08:27

Because they don't like to admit it was SLIGHTLY less than the September valuation? ;-)

[bagpuss67] 14/5/2024 07:44

Maybe it's commercially sensitive?

[holts] 14/5/2024 07:35

Why state broadly in line ? Just give the figures .

[williamcooper104] 13/5/2024 10:32

4.5 to 4 NIY is 12.5% capital value uplift

[assetbackedvalue] 13/5/2024 09:48

Care to explain your methodology?

[skyship] 13/5/2024 09:31

Thoughts - indeed, sorry, but total tosh - "50bps lower yield corresponds to 12% higher property valuations"

You'll see the NAV on Thursday - c85p.

[assetbackedvalue] 13/5/2024 07:28

Interested in the quick dismissal of the 100p estimated NAV from HL. I'd normally expect this to be some algorithmic garbage but ....

NAV is calculated using discounted cashflow (as per notes to full year results). Some room for valuer hocus pocus in determining the yield but I can't imagine it deviates much from market yield expectations.

Euro yields roughly 50bps lower today (or 31 March) vs 30 Sep 23. I wouldn't expect projected cashflows (i.e. inflation expectations) to have changed dramatically.

Sensitivity analysis in the results indicates 50bps lower yield corresponds to 12% higher property valuations. All else equal, NAV then comes through a little over 20% higher at 31 March 2024 than 30 Sep 2023. This implies a NAV a touch over 100p.

EURGBP has fallen a little, but only a couple of %.

This approach explains previous NAV moves with reasonable precision.

Thoughts?

[loglorry1] 11/5/2024 08:31

Just look at the change in total voting rights. No change.

[alan pt] 10/5/2024 18:21

Three RNS's and as usual with these Aviva ones I read them and my head hurts, but they all seem to be just share loans, little or no net effect?

[garbetklb] 08/5/2024 17:25

RCT2 - the AIC website is showing the figs in EUR. And you'll see the price quoted is 73 which is, unfortunately, also in EUR. As there are 2 listings for the same security, BOXE (EUR) & EBOX (GBP), it can get confusing!

[rcturner2] 08/5/2024 05:39

Sky, I got the figure from the AIC website.

hxxps://www.theaic.co.uk/companydata/tritax-eurobox

But clearly (from the results) it can be seen that it should be in euros.

[loglorry1] 07/5/2024 23:06

I think that's the NAV per share in euro cents maybe.

Edit sorry just saw WC saying same thing.

[alan pt] 07/5/2024 22:05

HL "estimated NAV" is 99.5p, based on goodness knows what, some daft algorithm maybe

Betaville also came up on the DGI9 thread a while back, speculation it was a bid rumour but unknown (and certainly didn't happen...)

[williamcooper104] 07/5/2024 21:10

Sounds like it's getting euro and sterling mixed up 85p is about 100c

[skyship] 07/5/2024 21:06

RCT2 - where do you get this absurd 100p figure from?

87.7p as at Q3'23; so likely now c85p.

[rcturner2] 07/5/2024 21:04

Any views on the 100p NAV figure?

If there is a bid it must be much closer to that number surely?

[skyship] 07/5/2024 21:03

I too top-sliced; but with unfortunate timing did so at 60.9p - minutes before the late afternoon jump to c63p.

Personally I'd never heard of Betaville!

[williamcooper104] 07/5/2024 20:56

Yep - be good to get a full bid on something to then be able to buy into others that are still relatively cheap

[hpcg] 07/5/2024 20:26

I have a relatively modest spread bet holding from a week or so ago, basically when the share price move up first started. I sold my shares a while back to add to my GMS holding, so I'm not complaining. I haven't closed any yet, partly as I'm on holiday, but also I may as well just see what happens as there is a lot of smoke. I note also that other income asset trusts are also well bid, after a very similar fall back from March levels; SEIT and GSEO as examples. There is the possibility of moving from one to the other to the next and if one can get the sequencing optimal perhaps capturing the major upswing in them all, if it happens to them as it has here.

[flyer61] 07/5/2024 19:17

Blackstone and Segro are both in talks to buy EBOX.....you heard it here first ;-).

[williamcooper104] 07/5/2024 18:30

I resisted taking profits but off loaded a few this afternoon Will likely buy them back if the share price gives up a bit of ground Think we are now in the part of the cycle where you see M&A - it's usually not at the bottom but reasonably well into the recovery With ASLI likely being wound down and if EBOX sold then no easy way to get European logistics exposure