Tritax Eurobox Share Discussion Threads

[chucko1] 26/2/2024 12:47

Sky, as I cannot be certain where some of these parameters are going to be at any given time, I cannot possibly be more prescriptive.

But given that I have been buying a few of these and might look to add, I think it wise to invest some further thinking time on the risk/reward.

But imagine if inflation smacked us all in the face and stopped falling, against expectations. At least I would have some sort of mechanism to compare EBOX with, say, SUPR (and many others), by understanding their sensitivities and changing relative value were they all to move (which they would) on account of the changing macro variables.

My ultimate goal is to try and make the right call, and thereby make some money. As importantly, were I to make the wrong call, then I would also make money because I would lose less than most others and buy their pain cheaply - so the returns would come back albeit longer term, but likely higher than they would have been if they had been earned short term.

[hpcg] 26/2/2024 09:41

I thought it was a good post too. It relates to a question I was going to ask to, really at, the regulars on the fixed income thread. We are starting to see some bond-proxy funds raise their dividend, GSEO and SEIT last week. Those raises are not keeping up with inflation by any stretch, but that is substantially better than a permanent preference share where both capital and dividend decline in real terms year after year. To retain real value the inflationary part of the return must be reinvested. Even with high sounding headline interest rates those instruments offer nugatory returns. Back on topic, at least rents will grow over time, specifically this sector, not more generally in property, and so once the interest rate bump up has been digested the longer term, if one enters at an appropriate price, the dividends should maintain real value.

[rcturner2] 26/2/2024 08:09

lol skyship that's a bit churlish

I found it a very useful post as it explains different possible outcomes that you can adjust according to your own thinking.

[skyship] 26/2/2024 08:07

SO? Is there an answer, or just navel-gazing!

Sorry, but looks to me like a lot of time and effort, signifying nothing.

Still, if it provides you with a path to somewhere, then good.

[skinny] 26/2/2024 07:27

Nice post.

[hpcg] 22/2/2024 09:12

Too many investors reject the words of rating agencies, because you know, history, but as a couple of you have already mentioned this is financially meaningful for EBOX and investors.

[chucko1] 22/2/2024 08:31

That revision to stable, thereby unendangering the investment grade rating is a good thing, though these things are always subservient to the market pricing for the debt. Ratins agencies lag badly! Nevertheless, the rationale for the outlook change is always worthwhile. In any event, the price of the Green Bond tells you quite a bit, although by contrast, the price of the equity merely serves to confuse, on the other hand.

Stock went ex this morning and stock price has moved a fraction of the dividend amount. A mild indication of it being traded irrationally. But add that to the numerous other occasions where other ITs go ex and move only a fraction and it is a better indication of the stresses everywhere in the Inv Tr "sector".

STRESS + RISK MANAGEMENT = OPPORTUNITY (1)

STRESS + PANIC = DAMAGED PHONE (2)

[skyship] 22/2/2024 08:28

Ah - thnx for that reminder.

[skyship] 22/2/2024 08:19

Good news that - but the Market seems not to recognise the fact!

[skinny] 22/2/2024 07:09

Tritax EuroBox plc (the "Company"), which invests in Continental European logistics real estate assets, announces that Fitch Ratings ("Fitch") has revised the Company's outlook to Stable from Negative. Fitch has also affirmed the Company's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at 'BBB-', and affirmed its senior unsecured debt rating at 'BBB'.

Fitch press release

According to Fitch, the drivers behind its outlook analysis include the logistics asset class's fundamentals, the Company's disposal programme and asset portfolio, plus yield dynamics and demand/supply metrics.

Company commentary

Mehdi Bourassi, Chief Financial Officer to Tritax EuroBox plc, commented:

"The affirmation of the Company's investment grade rating, and restoration to a stable outlook, underlines the good progress made on the sales of selected assets at, or close to, book value, and overall resilience of the portfolio. The Company will continue its disposal programme through FY24 and remains committed to maintaining an investment grade rating."

[chucko1] 20/2/2024 16:53

I think the key thing here is that the stabilising IR environment will improve further the ability to sell assets and render the supposed refunding squeeze pretty-well neutered.

There is talk in the US of perhaps the next Fed move being a hike, but that comes with a 20% cited likelihood and in any event, a US economy that is leaving that of the EU (and UK) for dust. It is only the matter of timing of an ECB cut which will keep bonds volatile, but far less volatile than the situation of 6 months back when inflation was jumping higher without confidence of an end to it!

If it comes to pass that further sales are readily available and is a matter of seller's choice, 51p is really cheap (let alone the recent 47.6p).

[williamcooper104] 20/2/2024 16:30

https://quoteddata.com/research/tritax-eurobox-calmer-waters-qd/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBOX%20-%20RET%2020022024&utm_content=EBOX%20-%20RET%2020022024+CID_397906e5f21ed505d354aea3f033cf06&utm_source=Research%20note&utm_term=view%20report

[skinny] 16/2/2024 12:58

:-)

No.

[essentialinvestor] 16/2/2024 12:56

Is that the kid from the Omen!.

[essentialinvestor] 16/2/2024 12:38

Above 50, eh.

[essentialinvestor] 14/2/2024 08:46

I would view EBOX further out on the risk spectrum than CREI atm. Hopefully some further disposals here shortly.

[riverman77] 13/2/2024 16:09

I generally only hold the most 2 or 3 attractive REITs at anyone time - will gladly move back into EBOX if moves back into that list, but too many niggling concerns for moment. My top 3 right now are SUPR, NRR and API (CREI) - all offering chunky, well covered yields in region of 8% and (importantly) no real debt issues.

[chucko1] 13/2/2024 15:56

Yup, I am selectively trading/adding. I like this sell-off, despite the mild bruising. Long term rates about right and spread over 10 years is too generous. I see the weakness as recent weak longs cutting and running. May have further to run.

Had originally sold a little SEQI and SREI, bought some SUPR. And that is just in the "S" category!

[spectoacc] 13/2/2024 15:36

Ought to go under that if ftse250 place is lost.

Got eye on SUPR pressing lows too - 70p looks the target.

And poor old GSF - what can they possibly say next to stop them breaking the lows?

All things that might force me out of the likes of ERNS.

Opportunity Cost everywhere - would add TRIG & BBGI to the mix.

[chucko1] 13/2/2024 15:29

R77, 45p? Have your cash ready!