Tritax Eurobox Share Discussion Threads

[my retirement fund] 11/6/2024 11:23

No, I only have a small amount that's not underwater to sub 53p, but I'm kicking myself for missing that early morning spike to 63.5p. I was late out of bed otherwise I think I would have sold. I'd probably be tempted to think about some more if I go underwater and need to average down.

[wskill] 11/6/2024 10:54

Put a limit order in just in case we have a motivated seller.

[essentialinvestor] 11/6/2024 09:55

Added a small amount.


MRF, are you holding too many here?.

[wskill] 11/6/2024 09:35

That would be good for a top up did buy a few last time not enough though.

[spoole5] 11/6/2024 08:25

They may well go back there

[my retirement fund] 11/6/2024 05:53

It's less than 2 months ago that you could have had the shares for just 46 pence, so you'll probably need bucket loads of faith to remain a believer.

[hpcg] 10/6/2024 17:28

Anyone taking notice of the London market in the last 8 months has left what, 25, 30 50% of alpha on the table. I added more physical today because at this price I'm quite happy to hold anyway. Best period to be an active investor since 2009.

[skyship] 09/6/2024 09:02

RCT - after a period of relatively high capex, mainly associated with developments, they now expect that figure to reduce from cE30m pa down to E20m pa.

The low capex is a function of the fact that the estate consists of very modern buildings. 89% of the portfolio built in the last 10yrs.

See pp 12-14 of the Annual Report; those pages also containing the very well-known Top Ten tenants accounting for 79% of passing rent.

[hpcg] 09/6/2024 08:25

We know the biggest exposure, at 14%, Mango. Mango is growing and makes substantial EBITDA and net profit.



No need to analyse Amazon, Lidl, Puma, Cummins. Rhenus is logistics rather than consumer. Sure there are less significant customers that may or may not require more work but this isn't onerous, it is what they do every day.

Of the two I kept / keep an eye on, the other being Mango, Wayfair is the weaker. It is still making an operating loss but is now cash flow positive. It too faces rises to its cost of debt as it needs to refinance very cheap 7 year convertible paper this year, 2025 and 2026. It has $1bn net cash and the entirety of its right of use assets amount to $1.8bn. I reckon is survives and continues to operate in Europe.

There is now only one development site where DD might be subjective.

So yes, it isn't a 5 minute job, but neither is it weeks of work. Sure some of the more complex arrangements like the puts on the German subsidiaries need careful reading, but I think they are unlikely to be a hidden nasty.

In general I think it is very likely what you see is what you get and that if the headline numbers stack up nothing in the internals will contradict.

[rcturner2] 09/6/2024 06:52

I think the due diligence is probably a much bigger job than you are making out.

OK the properties are well known, but someone will need to read and understand all of the leases for example. They will need to consider the viability of the tenants and review the estate in terms of future repair etc. There are many unknowns and they will be modelling the future cash flows etc.

[skyship] 08/6/2024 13:29

hpcg - well stated. The point here is that due diligence beyond what is already abundantly clear with the EBOX portfolio, is really wholly unnecessary. EBOX is an open book - indeed like most property companies / REITs. We know all aspects of every property; so any property expert can fully assess in advance of any overture.

The only matter they really have to consider is at what %age of NAV they are going to make their offer. As I've already stated; I think they will be successful at a 10% discount. Some here don't like that "lowball" offer. My response is, then why not buy more at 60p!

[hpcg] 08/6/2024 12:15

We'll find out Monday. If they really weren't going to bid they would have declined when announcing. That would have put them out of the running for 3 months which they may not have wanted, but that remains the case if they decline within the PUSU period. They'll have had a couple of working days to do whatever it is happens in these circumstances, put feelers out on price or what have you. If there are funds in need of cash they might welcome the injection.

The longer it goes on, to a degree, the more likely a bid is. Presumably there is some due diligence to carry out on individual properties, perhaps those that might be close to being sold, change of control on debt, but this is not a complex company to understand. They must have modelled the numbers internally much before a bid being anywhere near to consideration. Only if the process really got stretched would a bid be doubtful.

Right now I think price action is likely dominated by range traders taking the profits they were looking for when they put their money down.

[hugepants] 07/6/2024 16:14

Strong US numbers casting doubt on rate cuts

[hugepants] 07/6/2024 14:28

Plenty of REITs down 1.5%-2% today. Not just ebox!

[my retirement fund] 07/6/2024 14:03

No doubt about it !

[skyship] 07/6/2024 13:57

Smacks of insider trading here - someone knows Brookfield not bidding!

[spoole5] 07/6/2024 13:42

I'm sure they'll be confident they can take it out at below 70 at this rate

[williamcooper104] 07/6/2024 12:50

Agree - I made a little turn on EPIC but I also had hoped to clip the divi you years

[wskill] 07/6/2024 11:04

Pity that a lot of the decent companies are taken out for no premiums lost EPIC which I classed the same as EBOX a long term hold, that's the UK market in a nutshell good companies are bought up before they produce the returns they are capable of and we are left with those that are not in the same class.

Hopefully SUPR wont go the same way,with EPIC we lost small out of town shopping centres and now European warehousing .

[binghall] 07/6/2024 10:58

Those are fair comments. Like any bid position it is opportunistic; it feels very specific as a play on interest rates and the threat of them being reduced during the latter part of this year raising the price. The price action is underwhelming but I'd rather not take a low-ball offer, and if 77p is around the offer price, then it's not enough for me. Happy to sit longer term and see a steady rise as rates come down.

[essentialinvestor] 07/6/2024 10:01

Fair comment hp.

[hpcg] 07/6/2024 09:45

Price action since the bid news just makes a bid turning up much more likely. If investors don't think it is worth paying 60p now they are going to rush to the exits at 77p. I'd hazard that having seen the price move enthusiastically to €0.74 at the sniff of the ECB cutting rates Brookfield probably figured they needed to act now before the discount closed further.

Looking at the number of Form 8.3 that have been released, and the huge number where the stake is between 1 and 2%, and the low number over even 3% I hardly think there is a corp of committed holders ready to make a last stand at 77p or whatever.

[skyship] 06/6/2024 20:49

Interesting - but talk about sitting on the fence and saying absolutely nothing!