Tritax Big Box Reit Share Discussion Threads

[bagsforlife] 19/3/2020 12:49

Not that simple. If Tritax have vacant assets they are on the hook for rates, so if there is a deferment then that will help. Plus any govt intervention that helps their big tenants will mean the rent is more likely to be paid by extension, so it's good news all round.

[greatgiginthesky] 19/3/2020 08:20

Tritax Big Box REIT PLC - Non-Executive Director Aubrey Adams buys 50,000 shares at 93.6p, worth GBP46,800, on Tuesday.

[lilly 01] 18/3/2020 18:55

Thank you very much SpectoAcc.

[spectoacc] 18/3/2020 17:11

No - tenants will be paying it, not BBOX.

The logic of letting surging supermarkets off half a billion of business rates each is beyond me.

[lilly 01] 18/3/2020 16:59

Will the business rates relief benefit Big Box, anyone?

[spectoacc] 18/3/2020 15:14

Must be approaching revulsion stage, but a worry quite how long the bad news can go on for. "Climbing a wall of worry", fair enough, but Covid-19 going to still be with us next winter.

[speedsgh] 18/3/2020 15:02

Yes, not much blood visible on the streets yet but there is a strong whiff of it in the air. It shouldn't be too long.

[jonwig] 18/3/2020 14:44

@ Spec - well, yes, the market moves, opinions move. Mine do!

A number of articles (FT, mainly for me) have cited forced unwinding as a driver of this market, with hedge funds much exposed. So a share could well be a "buy" only just not yet. Streets not bloody enough.

[spectoacc] 18/3/2020 13:44

Thanks, bog-standard Investors Chronicle! A raging buy at 135p, 140p, but a "hold" at 91p.

[speedsgh] 18/3/2020 13:36

FWIW...

Tritax valuation gains slow -

Tritax Big Box (BBOX) reported a reduced underlying total return of 5.8 per cent for 2019, due to a much lower revaluation uplift for its portfolio of logistics assets. That was despite increasing the annual dividend payment 2.2 per cent.

The group achieved planning consents across 2.6m sq/ft of strategic land sites and 3.2 million sq/ft of logistics assets under construction, of which 92 per cent was pre-let. Management said the economic turmoil resulting from the outbreak of Covid-19 could temporarily weigh on tenants' willingness to commit to pre-lets.

IC VIEW
Analysts at Peel Hunt expect to reduce EPS and NAV forecasts for 2020 by around 1 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively, to account for the slower-than-expected progress on new lettings, over and above a 661,000 sq/ft unit pre-let to The Co-operative Group during the first half of the year. At 91p, we reduce to hold, given there is greater rental growth potential in the urban warehouse sector.

[anley] 18/3/2020 11:34

I remember when British Land shares were a 1p and just about to bring about the collasp of the UK..............that was saved and then the funds piled in for what happended next.

Not quite the same but in this case a blip and once the air clears not a 30% discount but back to say 15% discount to NAV.........one can look at this in various ways but all I am doing is going for a debate.

Remember this is a fund that has to pay out most of its income so for income lovers this may be the time to buy - Pound Cost Average.......

[nimbo1] 18/3/2020 11:15

hxxps://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4012591/update-aviva-suspend-property-fund-follow

[speedsgh] 17/3/2020 20:30

Big Box shares fold amid flat-lining growth and virus fears -

Shares in Tritax Big Box (BBOX) tumbled 16% today as the warehouse investor published annual results slightly below expectations, intensifying investor concerns about the impact the Covid-19 will have on logistics.

The £1.6bn real estate investment trust (Reit) reported a 1.2% decline in EPRA net asset value (NAV) in 2019, taking the NAV per share price to 151p. At yesterday’s closing price of 99p, this represented a 33% discount which will have widened further as the shares slumped 15p to 83p.

The total return from the Reit - which has a current yield of 6.9% - has slipped from 12.1% at the end of 2018 to 3.3% for the 12 months to 31 December 2019.

Peel Hunt analyst Sebastian Isola said ‘limited pre-letting activity and disappointing rent reviews’ were behind the results, which were ‘marginally’ behind expectations.

However, Tritax boasted that 99% of the portfolio was let or pre-let over the year and rent increased by £700,000 a year following seven rent reviews, equal to 2% of the rent reviewed.

With market rental growth slowing to 1.2% last year, down from 5.6% in 2018, Numis Securities analyst Priyesh Parmar warned that the policy of targeting a yield of 6-8% on developments could come under strain.

‘Build costs and land inflation are likely to put pressure on achievable returns,’ he said...

... Peel Hunt’s Isola said coronavirus could push back ‘assumptions on the timing of new developments’ which would affect 2020 forecasts.

However, he said the investment portfolio ‘boasts sector-leading covenant strength in buildings that are mission-critical to their operators’.

‘In the current climate, security of income is key and a 54% discount to our full-year 2020 NAV and an 8.3% dividend yield look unwarranted given the strength of the income,’ said Isola.

Parmar at Numis said the affect the pandemic would have on logistics was still ‘unclear’ although as spending moves online retailers will have to ‘maximise efficiency from their supply chains’ and their ‘ability to invest may be curtailed, exacerbated by a potentially deeper decline in consumer spending and shorter-term’.

He added that ‘further quarantine measures could cause major disruption to supply chains’.

[williamcooper104] 17/3/2020 14:02

Couldn't resist doubling up - looking v good value The development pipeline is only really risky to the extent they spec it

[gswredland] 17/3/2020 13:58

Yes very odd
I like a post earlier thought it was relatively immune from downturns
I still don’t think we have reached the bottom but 80 with 8% yield looks a good point of entry

[lilly 01] 17/3/2020 13:51

Well I’m still scratching my head. I would have thought that the present situation would have enhanced Big Box facilitates and make them even more valuable.

[phillis] 17/3/2020 13:02

Excellent buy in the low 80s earlier this morning

[tyranosaurus] 17/3/2020 11:35

Based on your chart the best time to buy is 9am or 10am
I will see if this is true for the next few days.
Want more but not convinced that we are near the bottom.

[intelinvestor] 17/3/2020 11:33

worst part for me is the Diluted Weighted Average Shares


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TTM

284 638 887 1,279 1,451 1,537

[intelinvestor] 17/3/2020 11:31

The reduction in NAV was due to an increase in the number of shares as a result of the equity raise and acquisition of Tritax Symmetry, analysts at Peel Hunt said.

“ We expect developments to be the main driver of earnings and NAV growth in the future and pre-lets are an essential part of this,” they added.

The dividend was increased by 2% to 6.85p per share.

Shares slipped 19% to 80.5p on Tuesday morning.


i would agree the development side is a more risky

[scubadiverr] 17/3/2020 11:11

I agree. Although think the lockdown would induce an overall market low, ie. Ftse250. I can't see this going lower due to reasons you state but then I never thought I'd be able to buy at this level. In fact I thought it would be fairly immune, so what do I know?!?

[intelinvestor] 17/3/2020 10:52

the 200m revolving credit will keep Bbox above water if things go bad short term. Plus they have a load of cash and they will continue getting rent . I do see the market getting worse, expecially considering we are not even in lock down phase yet so, when that does happen that will be the low. unless im missing something

your thoughts>?

[sleepy] 17/3/2020 10:43

Thanks Belgraviaboy

[cheshire man] 17/3/2020 10:30

Think a few of us have taken advantage Skinny :-)