Tritax Big Box Reit Share Discussion Threads

[pimsim] 17/3/2020 09:02

Remarkable fall. I can only guess that it is the increasing debt and talk of further development activity that is spooking people. That said, 30% LTV is hardly extreme.

The revenue should be more than enough to cover ongoing costs. Even if half their tenants go bust and they lost half their revenue they would still be making a operating profit

[belgraviaboy] 17/3/2020 09:00

I have dialled in - if anything interesting comes up I will try and post it

[muzmanoz] 17/3/2020 08:55

I guess tenant default risk and CVAs in the retail sector.

Listed as a moderate risk in the report that has increased since last year. The company limits its exposure to individual clients (30% for ftse 100 clients, 20% outside ftse 100)

[alter ego] 17/3/2020 08:54

fear outweighing greed at the moment. Forced sales to meet fund redemptions create a vicious circle. So long as some people think it's time to buy, we haven't reached "capitulation" so it's not yet the bottom. Just my opinion - I'm as bemused as the next man.

[belgraviaboy] 17/3/2020 08:54

Anyone dialling in the 9am call?

[belgraviaboy] 17/3/2020 08:54

Well something seems to think they are going bust !!

Yield 8.75%

[1nf3rn0] 17/3/2020 08:53

Bought in just over 80p. Just a small amount for now given how quickly it's dropping, but been following for a while and looks like good long term value.

[outlawinvestor] 17/3/2020 08:50

The sector is selling off (again) but this seems totally overdone to me... Still watching!

[speedsgh] 17/3/2020 08:46

Is the market being completely irrational or is there something in the results that we are all missing?

Current offer 83.4p = 8.4% forward yield

[speedsgh] 17/3/2020 08:43

The following going concern statement is forward looking and they state that they are not aware of any material uncertainties (presumably including Covid-19) that may casy significant doubt upon Group's ability to continue as a going concern.

"At the year-end date the Group's loan to value ratio stood at 30.4%, with an average maturity term of approximately 7.5 years.

In respect of the loan to value covenant testing, the LTV default position is set at a minimum of 60% across certain Group loan facilities. There is currently significant headroom across all Group loan facilities in respect of financial covenants, while the Group has been compliant with each loan facility during the year and following the year end.

The Directors have assessed the Group's ability to continue as a going concern and are satisfied that the Group has the resources to continue in business for at least 12 months from the date of approval of these financial statements. Furthermore, the Directors are not aware of any material uncertainties that may cast significant doubt upon Group's ability to continue as a going concern."

[lilly 01] 17/3/2020 08:41

Seen somewhere, Amazon are taking on more people to cope with the increase in deliveries (and raising wages)

[lilly 01] 17/3/2020 08:33

Head scratching time!

[belgraviaboy] 17/3/2020 08:22

Those results are why I am here for the long term in these markets

[muzmanoz] 17/3/2020 08:19

Crikey. Hadn't expected that response!

[n0rbie] 17/3/2020 07:48

Great results and 7% yield at the current price.

[chucko1] 16/3/2020 22:08

Intel, totally agree. It was just the broad point I was making. In the 1970s when PEs were in highish single digits, 10yr rates were around 8%. But that would only justify PEs of around 13-14 today ceteris paribus.

But that is what PEs were until 3 weeks ago in the U.K., but they were far higher in the US.

[intelinvestor] 16/3/2020 12:05

Chuck - All things being equal, we would expect PE ratios to be higher today than forty years ago, simply because interest rates are lower.

[intelinvestor] 16/3/2020 12:03

the good news is they have a load of cash so should weather out any storm that comes or from any company that does go into liquidation.

[skinny] 16/3/2020 11:50

But there is no correlation between the falls and the volumes.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[tyranosaurus] 16/3/2020 11:46

Some ridiculous price falls this morning.
Must be desperate sellers selling anything and everything thats saleable.
BBOX down 13%
INL down 20%
GKP down 15%
etc etc etc

Could be worth selling now and buying much cheaper in days to come !

[williamgtheobald] 14/3/2020 18:05

nice to see some educated comments recently on this board.

My own 2 pence's worth, I did top up again this week and whilst down I see no concern.

The income streams that BBox receives by way of rental are fixed. (Average length of leases is 12 years).

The sharp fall is unjustified and the share has been caught up in the general mark downs across the board.

[belgraviaboy] 13/3/2020 17:34

Chucko1 - agreed, and this time there will be / is unlimited 'free' money available to offset

Banks will be desperate to lend to the least risky prospect

Deflation / inflation / hyperinflation

Happy to own RPI/CPI linked hard assets - and gold (don't judge me)

[chucko1] 13/3/2020 17:19

Also, same thing happening in the US muni market. To the extent that the analysts - in their own words - “do not know what’s going on”.

Personally, and I don’t say this lightly, I would not be surprised to see much further falls. For a long time now, the world has avoided paying the bill for 2008/9. With the last two weeks’ asset falls, I believe that bill will be repaid in the form of much higher yield requirements for a given risk. In the form of higher credit spreads (unsurprisingly, they have already jumped a large amount, but remain far lower than in 2008), lower PEs (they used to be half of what they had recently been) and much higher option prices (I.e. the ability to hedge).

[belgraviaboy] 13/3/2020 17:09

“The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”

Warren Buffett

And from the illiquid to the liquid

BBOX is now my largest holding by a country mile and I remain a buyer in quantity

Looking forward to the results next week.

[alter ego] 13/3/2020 16:56

agree chuck01, this is not about good companies and poor ones or ones that will suffer and those that won't. It's panic selling to raise cash while there is still value in an asset which induces more panic as others follow suit to avoid being last man holding.