Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[phowdo] 14/2/2018 10:25

I think they want to sucker a few more traders into being short oil first...

[mark10101] 14/2/2018 10:17

True there are people that just trade what they are told. These weeks year the prediction was for 3.5m build and it came in at 9.9m build. The week before they predicted 2.5m build and there was a 14.2m build. The ananlyst appear to be out by 100% on average with occasions they are out by 1000%. I wonder how they come to their figure....

Anyway fundamentals are hugely bullish atm, inventories are significantly below the 5year average and with these low build numbers coming it will remain significantly below the 5 year average for a while to come. Oil traders should be pilling in at these prices, I suspect when US opens today the switch will occur.

[whiskeyinthejar] 14/2/2018 09:58

Unfortunately it was more than the analyst poll was forecasting. Supposedly, this is what gets priced in before news is announced.

Oil ministers of Russia and SA are spending Valentines together today at International Energy Forum. They should have some upbeat things to say about their relationship.

[mark10101] 14/2/2018 09:00

API report was a build but significantly smaller than normal for this time of year 3.947m compared to 9.94 this time last year. So the two weeks this time last year there was a 24m build instead of the 3m this year and the market reacted to it as if it is bad news....

[mark10101] 13/2/2018 14:55

Maybe not WTI compitulation yet..... All of December and January run up gone. API report tonight and EIA tomorrow, will be interesting to see where the US production is. Lasts weeks gain in US production only had 30% attributed to the shale gains, all very odd.

[mark10101] 12/2/2018 09:20

WTI is having the day I hoped for, it did look like sub $60 was capitulation of record longs. TRIN looking good so far let’s hope the US stabilises today.

[fidra] 12/2/2018 08:21

Thanks for replies .had entirely forgotten the 35p milestone.

[mark10101] 12/2/2018 07:46

WITJ, I agree, it will be received well once it is dealt with but as I have posted for the last few weeks I think we are seeing buy the dip in TRIN (would expect a decent bounce today). Which I believe is a result of every day that passes with the money being made it becomes clearer and clearer the debt is covered. Confidence is building and I personally would not mind if the CLN was dealt with later in the year so long as it is dealt with.

[whiskeyinthejar] 12/2/2018 07:40

Sorry, but really disagree. Every day Trinity is making money. Im sure clearing the debt is a big milestone and it will highlight Trinity's value. But its a formality when they have the money to pay it.

They might have paid it all off already. Or they might wait until late in year to pay it off. I don't see any reason to be disappointed either way. So regardless of whether next update says debt has all been paid off, Im sure the key is the NET position.

[oilandgas1] 12/2/2018 00:13

Hi WITJ,

Yes I am aware of the net debt position being positive, but the share price will only kick on when several things happen, paying off clns and debt are key, among other things.

[nafafa] 11/2/2018 23:15

Fidra, all detailed in RNS 0012P issued 25/8/17. A share price of 35p, cleared debt and paying down CLNs releases options of 25 million to the Board st 5p, 9 million to Brice alone.

[mark10101] 11/2/2018 22:59

Fidra, the earliest they can be redeemed is 2020.

[fidra] 11/2/2018 22:33

Mark thanks for those .something I had forgotten about is the management incentive,when did that start? For the 35p share price?

[nafafa] 11/2/2018 22:22

Just been browsing through the latest postings and until I saw Mark's last post had thought the considerable management incentive to achieve a share price of 35p over the medium term had been overlooked. I believe this is a key factor which will ensure that Bruce and his team's objectives are aligned to that of share holders. A share price of 35p would take us back to a valuation for the business last seen just under four years ago.

[mark10101] 11/2/2018 09:41

Hi Markth, we have an excellent board here on ADVFN and LSE where there are plenty of excellent and respected posters more knowledgable than me. I have have gained knowledge having held TRIN through it’s ups and downs as well as learning from these boards and idviduals invested in TRIN for the long term.

I ere on the bullish side of pricing because I believe we are entering a good period for oil and also that since relisting none of the big wild cards have been played yet that could significantly boost our share price.

There are many good news items that could come at any time this year, such as

Government Tax reform (T&T taxation is a mess and long overdue)

Paying off government debt

Paying off convertable LNs

West Coast asset sale

Drilling campaign and step changes in production

Half our potential 2P reserves are currently sitting at 2C, we have done the necessary drilling to prove the reserves so these could be moved to 2P at any time. With a current EP value of approx current MC and potential 2P reserves of 42m it would give a valuation of under $1.5 per 2P barrel, that is cheap.

Farm out of Galeota Ridge or finance plan to drill ourselves.

So plenty of news catalysts to come, I am in the camp that does not think £1 is out of the question over the next two years but we need things to go well for us to get there. With the management incentivised to get the share price to 35p in the next two years, that looks a pretty safe bet.

[markth126] 10/2/2018 22:59

Mark you seem to be a respected poster on here and very knowledgable, what is your target price here? Is it ever going to get to 30p in your view. I've been invested here a long time and was very enthused by CEO's latest presentation. I believe patience is the key to great gains here but just wanted to hear some other thoughts cheers

[mark10101] 10/2/2018 22:07

Yes Ross, me too. I think the management have shown their intent with the accelerated payback, maybe we will get clearer direction regarding the CLN’s in the March update, by then the government debt will be in much better shape. I think my simplistic calculations last week overstated our end of year position but it will certainly be looking good by then.

I also agree with WITJ our debt position is very good relative to all other Oilers I have ever researched and I think we put too much emphasis on becoming debt free (although that will be great when we get their). If anyone can name me an AIM oiler with possitive net debt, solid asset base, in a safe jurisdiction and solid production I genuinely would like the tip, in this phase of the bull market oil will shine.

[ffp] 10/2/2018 21:46

WiTJ

I think I got that, profound I think. Savings return less that 1% mortgage 3%... Would that be a no brainer??

[whiskeyinthejar] 10/2/2018 17:03

oilandgas1- net debt was only $1.2m at end of H1 2017. That included all debt and provision for 9m working capital. So net debt will be a positive number by end of LAST year.

Say I have £67k in my savings account, my total debts are £67k and Im making good money every month in my job. In fact, Im adding substantially to my savings account every month. Then is it really a big worry that I'll struggle to pay my mortgage???

[mark10101] 10/2/2018 14:20

December 2018 is when the LN come into play and they can be paid off at any time after the Government debt is cleared. 10% of the managements incentives are based of clearing the CLN before it matures.

[shrewdmole] 10/2/2018 11:59

Oil

It's been missed by many that they are throwing off serious cash and debt and cln should be gone in next few months.

Board are doing city rounds next month plus imminent inclusion in malcys it's.

Add in potential off increased production, spt reform and higher impact galeota s entry hard to find a downside when break even is below $30.

[oilandgas1] 10/2/2018 11:41

Hi mark101,

Thanks, any idea at what date this was disclosed for the CLN at $6.55m and can trin pay it down anytime ?

With oil around 60$ , trin could be debt free by apr18..and have a cash balance above 10$m

[mark10101] 09/2/2018 20:49

Hi Oilandgas, the CLN is $6.55m but we have a 7% interest rate also so that needs to be factored in depending when it is paid off.

I am not sure when the CPR is due, as you say that conversion will be a big boost and one of the many possitve news events that we still have in the bag.

[oilandgas1] 09/2/2018 19:47

Also anyone know when the next CPR set of results are due for TRIn?

As a further boost we also have discoveries totalling a further 19.8 mmbs awaiting development classified as 2C but will move to the 2P category. The hard work has already been done as this oil has been found by drilling.