Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[swampydrill] 20/7/2017 09:16

Just bought a few more to get a nice even number, no issues waiting for this one.

[shrewdmole] 20/7/2017 09:01

I've been playing with some numbers.

Mark was right the investor presentation states average production costs of $29 a barrel albeit that's heavily swayed by minor production on one field. The onshore is down to $16.5 a barrel.

We're partially hedged at $40.

So assume a minimum of $10 a barrel profit.

We're around 2,500 bopd now and that should steadily rise over the coming months as the swabbing and infill drilling and rcp's are completed.
So could be 3,000 realistically.

Now whether you run valuation on:-
Enterprise value
Profits pe ratio
2p and potential uplift as 2c moves over

This is way undervalued.

I'm a buyer at these levels but I think we need patience as the next update and next interims will be the catalyst for the rerate.

Zengas and big fella have posted above more detailed valuations and fair value now seems to give about 100% upside then there's the galeota ridge and further drilling that could be a step change.

Until then they are producing from proven fields at low cost and making money every day.

Sm

[shrewdmole] 20/7/2017 08:33

Still think there's a buyer mopping up. Spreads widened which is usual to deter buyers.

Looks like sellers dried up now too.

Just need to spread the word a bit as there can't be many better balue and lower risk producers.

S

[mark10101] 20/7/2017 08:16

Price paid rising, let's hope we can put the last few months behind us.

[trotterstrading] 20/7/2017 08:10

When is next update due folks?

[aimmafia] 19/7/2017 21:31

Trin going to motor on next update

[mark10101] 19/7/2017 15:49

Yes bid rising, oil rising the stake builder looks to have run out of time.

[shrewdmole] 19/7/2017 15:36

Big fella

Hear what your saying about volume but I don't think we are seeing the full picture.

There's far less stock available on the rsp than yesterday.

I was quoted 11.83p for 250k yesterday.
Today it's 12.3p
And 12.5p for 500k.

Spread opened they are desperate to put off buyers so I still think someone's very carefully trying to build a stake.

Time will tell but certainly looks like we've got rid of a lot of the weak holders or those in from lower levels.

S

[mark10101] 19/7/2017 12:55

Yes they are just very odd, never had so many on any other share.

[mark10101] 19/7/2017 12:42

Highest none AT paid for a while despite the bizarre PME we have seen again.

[the big fella] 19/7/2017 10:46

I bit of volume yesterday, but nothing like what we need to sustain a re rating.

[mark10101] 19/7/2017 10:42

Oil showing a solid move above the 50 day moving average. Also hopefully the numbers today will be the catalyst higher.

[aimmafia] 18/7/2017 18:04

500k buy in. Boom

[mark10101] 18/7/2017 17:12

We may see a few more at that level as my 11.5p looks on the money for the midprice this deal was being done at. They obviously needed to take it lower to flush a few out.

[shrewdmole] 18/7/2017 16:58

Nearly £60k delayed buy showing!!

Starting to bubble now!!

Constant 12p lumps got taken out every time they hit.

[mark10101] 18/7/2017 15:25

I thought $29 was official figure of combined including G&A, but if our focus is to shift toward onshore development that should help to get it down. That is also the figure from the relisitng so hopefullY improved since then. Very happy if we are doing even better.

[aimmafia] 18/7/2017 15:08

Mark it's 24 break even mAte

[shrewdmole] 18/7/2017 15:08

Mark

Isn't your $29 figure too high.

I believe it's circa that off shore but on shore it's $18-19. The production currently is majority in shore so far higher margins.

Infill drilling ongoing and swabbing done so whilst hey aren't Rns ing every new well on line the production will be increasing over h2.

S

[squiresquire] 18/7/2017 14:46

Looking very nice today, i still cannot get over how these figures we know are being generated escape traders, i guess they are looking for the trading update to prove the figures, but how difficult is it to work out given the barrels rolling in per day.

[mark10101] 18/7/2017 14:37

SM absolutely, as an overall risk and reward set up it is bonkers we are sub 20p ATM. However I have been in shares before where the value was screaming and it was squeezed lower only to bounce massively on no new news. The cynic in me always sees foul play but I'll leave it there.

[aimmafia] 18/7/2017 14:00

Minimal buys... price moving up quickly..... I reckon a few 100k buys would send us up even more.....

[mark10101] 18/7/2017 13:37

I am still of the view that 24p before we see 8p, which is unlikely to ever be seen again. Bid firming up, how much can they hold this back. Like 8p earlier in the year, bizzare holding phase before rising all the way to 18p