Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[shrewdmole] 06/7/2017 09:59

Marvel

I see your point but that debt is or was $9.2m I believe so 18 months worth of payments.

The restructuring Rns also stated a net cash position after taking into account the debt and the Rns also stated some of the fund raising was to be used to pay down the debt.

Let's also not forget the board own 24% of this now and are very respected in the sector.

S

[mark10101] 06/7/2017 09:56

Yes I suspect weakness here is understandable if there is a view oil falls into the $30 range like some believe. If we get a pop in oil to $60 surprising people to the upside we should then be $2m/month post operational and G&A costs and things will get a lot more interesting here.

I think long term the reality is our cash cushion and current operating profits should see us through whatever the oil maerket can throw at us. There will be carnage elsewhere before the wheels fall off here again.

[shrewdmole] 06/7/2017 09:51

Lw/Mark

That assumes oil at $40 and if you looked at h1 weighted average it's been more like mid to high $40's.

Admittedly there is a lot going on and that's what the funds were raised for to carry out the overhaul and upgrade infrastructure.

The company investor presentation also states they are profitable and generating free cash each month. Add in the comparables on asset values above from zengas and big fella which are very compelling and I don't think this is anywhere near fair value. As for volumes etc they have been all over the place.

The upside in production and oil price potentially makes this a bargain in my eyes. Hence why I'm a buyer when funds allow at these levels.

Risk reward ratio is very sweet imho.

Downsides are limited as even if oil dropped their costs at circa $29-30 pb are low, and h1 was the hard work so we should see a steady production increase through the next 12 months.

Then add in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the amount of upsides re production, poo, new wells, galeanta etc are not priced in at all.

Only downside I can see is the odd technical issue but as the wells are low cost low production of 1 or 2 had issues its not like we're producing 500bopd from 5 wells.

S

[marvelman] 06/7/2017 09:45

I suppose the repayments of $500k per month does not give a big enough cushion for many in these volatile oil markets hence the caution on the buy side. On the plus side there is still a healthy cash balance currently.

[mark10101] 06/7/2017 09:39

-- The consolidated operating break even oil price for the Group for the nine months to 30 September 2016, including G&A, was US$29.4/bbl which compares to consolidated break even oil prices of US$62.9/bbl in 2013, US$64.6/bbl in 2014, US$47.4/bbl in 2015 and US$30.0/bbl in H1 2016.

I think it will be base on the $29.9 and saying we approx making $10/b ATM and multiplying by 2600 x30 which is $780,000/month ATM. Things get a lot more interesting if oil was to approach $60. I think with oil where it is we are at a sensible price around 15p and my comments are based on an optimism on an improving oil outlook. We all know optimism and oil are not going hand in hand ATM....

[lw425] 06/7/2017 09:16

Mole

If you compare the RNS's from 25th April and AGM statement. The cash actually fell a little between end Feb and end May. Also creditor payments not due to start until June.

How on earth do you conclude they are making $1m a month.

They clearly are not at the moment unless you have explanation for the facts above.

This is why no one is buying. We appear fairly valued perhaps?

"cash balances at the end of February 2017 had increased to US$13.0 million" (due to refinancing... my emphasis)

"cash balances as at 31 May 2017 of US$12.4 million"

"This includes amounts due to State Creditors (US$13.5m), which are due to be repaid in 10 quarterly instalments commencing in June 2017"

[lw425] 06/7/2017 09:13

So can buy 150k at 12.12p and 250k at 12.22p ect....

Can anyone post limits to sell.

Thanks

[shrewdmole] 06/7/2017 09:10

Trotters

What's your take on free cash generation per month I have about $1m per month?

S

[trotterstrading] 06/7/2017 09:06

I'm accumulating, the buyer is obviously patient but I can't see many sellers below current levels, that would be madness

[mark10101] 06/7/2017 09:03

Yes, sensing they need to move up to drive some volume, it did seem some where happy to sell on the last run. Like you say given the severe undervaluation here it is amazing they find any sellers under 20p.

[the big fella] 05/7/2017 09:15

Enjoy your hols.

[the big fella] 05/7/2017 08:35

What is it they say.....the stock market is a mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient

[tracy_moore] 05/7/2017 07:53

We can but hope he does.

[mark10101] 05/7/2017 07:22

JH given your very dispondant posting I am surprised you hold any, does seem you are ready to move on.

[john henry] 05/7/2017 00:37

You could have had my 500k shrewd, i lightened up a little here and have added substantially into WSG this past week.

[trotterstrading] 04/7/2017 22:59

I've been adding more recently, my original buys were at 10p but been buying all the way up to 13p. it will seem incredibly cheap in a month or two imo

[shrewdmole] 04/7/2017 22:06

I said I wanted a decent amount and my broker is good he will come back to me and tell me what's available at different levels.

Currently hold just over 2m. Would have liked to round it up to 2.5m.

[lw425] 04/7/2017 21:02

Mole.

What is a large order to you?

How much were you prepared to pay?

[aimmafia] 04/7/2017 20:05

Totally agree shrewd

[shrewdmole] 04/7/2017 16:41

Zengas

You still here mate?

Sm

[shrewdmole] 04/7/2017 16:34

Big fella

Not bizarre at all.

I put a large order out there with my broker today with my observations about peel's actions last few days.

The response was no large amounts available and peel ARE buyers sitting on the offer to stifle the price.

Sounds like conspiracy but you only had to see their movements last few days to see it. My guess once they have filled their client they will let it run.

MM been bidding well on big size all day.

My advice is sit tight and add if you can.

S

[the big fella] 04/7/2017 16:11

Today's fall even more bizarre given that WTI is continuing northbound

[mark10101] 04/7/2017 16:10

Thanks WITJ, yes with the breadth of TRINS assets that now remain in tact there will be excitement to be had somewhere and the market is definately not seeing it ATM. Bonkers current pricing and happy to hold until the market finally gets to grips with TRINs upside potential and current downside risks.