Trinity Exploration & Pr... Takeover Rumours (TRIN)

Above post assumes that TXP have not said they won’t increase their offer (which I believe to be the case and is important under the Takeover Code)

It’s perhaps notable that Touchstone made an offer at the beginning of November, when Trinity’s share price was in the high-60s. A further indication of their failure is that they’ve probably recommended a takeover at a lower price than that initially offered (although Touchstone’s share price has fallen back). Will Perenco or someone else bid? The problem is that it looks as though Trinity has been in takeover talks since November and only one bidder has come forward.

Good post AB. From my reading of the Galeota farm out, they paused it in 2022 because the tax situation was 'evolving' and that made it harder to value, they also had a plan that required $250m capex up front. Tax regime is sorted now. It is frustrating then that its taking so long for them to issue a new field dev plan that can be marketed and sold to investors - and it does feel like stalling to take home the salary another year. On Jacobin, that is the only near term catalyst I could see some good news from... I honestly don't see a takeover or sale anytime soon, and I think its partly because the board are very very comfy where they are thanks

This company has over 49% shareholder holdings by large holders. They have potential influence. But may just be sitting back. No idea. Shareholders have a vote on any takeover. Going private? Not sure. Be careful when sowing seeds of worry here. Shares can only “ disappearâ€￾ if the company goes into liquidation/Admin. It is not fair to worry people. Hostile takeover ? Maybe, but there are procedures to be followed. The large shareholders don’t hold their shares without influence and will not accept a wipeout. Newlands owns over 10% and could call an EGM if wished. Don’t sow seeds of worry. We have suffered enough.

Takeover, partial or full sale, sale of an asset, fatm-in, or just capital accumulation…….all potentials. Trin is an anomaly, but the AIM index is unintelligent and doesn’t give a hoot. It relies on volume much of the time. One sale of just over £1k took it down 2p on Friday. It shows the nature of the index. Grossly disconnected.

Don’t expect director buys. They have a LTIP and chunky salary. Why risk? CEO already owns a fair few, I believe Menzies and Clayton own a dribble. If they wanted more, they would have bought. Not gonna happen. If they continue to fluff it, I would expect that shareholders will unite. Or a merger or takeover, or asset sale. At the moment they are receiving a good price for their oil at 15% discount to Brent. About $73-4. Oil climbed due to Opec’s continuing restrictions in order to raise the price. Shame , because Russia, Opec’s joint leader , benefits hugely selling to India and China and elsewhere, thus easily funding the war. Expect nothing with Trin this year and you will not be disappointed. However , in the stock market there are surprises at times. Can’t rule out an asset sale, farm-in or takeover. Alone , Trin will do nothing but pay nice salaries.

I am on the same page as you Skyship. Trinity has bought back a fair amount of shares as we know. All it takes is an asset sale, some kind of farm-in/takeover ant this share will not creep up. Trin rarely creeps up or down. I see over £1 as being absolutely not pie un the sky for 2024. Not in any way.

AB - Reading & re-reading the elements of your posts dealing with third parties in the T&T exploration business; does suggest a strong case for a takeover of TRIN to secure the Galeota gem. Such a route perhaps more likely to crystallise and carry forward the valuable tax losses. Such an event would hitherto have been held in abeyance; but now that the Government has remedied the SPT rules - GAME ON! Woodside? Perenco? AN Other third party. In the scheme of things a TRIN take-out a fairly inexpensive route: MCap @ 80p = £31.9m MCap @ 100p = £39.9m MCap @ 120p = £47.9m 120p perhaps still too low for the BoD to accept. Just exemplifies the stupidity of the current share price...41p-44p!/#?

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The theory that who is interested in Galeota might just as well buy the whole lot is correct and therein is the problem! Even an hostile takeover cannot happen at more than 100% premium than today’s price which unfortunately makes lots of investors still loss making. No one would give such a premium anyhow. This also gives an implicit Galeota market valuation today! Close to zero.

Tgal ( the sleeping undrilled part of Galeota) was discovered 2014. Trintes had been long drilled before then I believe. Trinity took over the wells. Trin as a company came from a reverse takeover of Bayfield in 2013. I first bought at £1.22p ( equivalent of £12.20p in today’s money) in 2014. Oil was $140 a barrel.

Nocents TRIN also had a lot more cash when the share price was 120p at this time last year... nocents21 Nov '23 - 09:57 - 6689 of 6690 0 0 0 There are too many large shareholders to block a takeover. At these prices it’d not be worth it. The minimum paid by some of them end 2016 was 7p ( 70p). I think it’d have to be at a very large premium. The price now is irrationl, as this time last year there was hedging, no fiscal reform, no drilling etc. and the price was £1.20.

There are too many large shareholders to block a takeover. At these prices it’d not be worth it. The minimum paid by some of them end 2016 was 7p ( 70p). I think it’d have to be at a very large premium. The price now is irrationl, as this time last year there was hedging, no fiscal reform, no drilling etc. and the price was £1.20.