Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trinity LSE:TRIN London Ordinary Share GB00B8JG4R91 ORD USD0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.50p +4.55% 11.50p 11.00p 11.50p 11.50p 11.00p 11.00p 132,819 15:38:43
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 28.6 -7.8 -5.7 - 32.48

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Date Time Title Posts
22/9/201715:11Trinity Exploration & Production PLC3,707
14/2/201713:30Trinity with volume charts1
07/2/201708:31TRINITY EXPLORATION and PRODUCTION LTD3,403
21/4/200420:59TRIN: Trading Index, Charts & Comments21

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Trinity (TRIN) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
14:38:4311.5082494.76AT
12:18:0911.2541,0854,622.02O
12:09:4511.2525,0002,812.50AT
11:59:4611.2550,0005,624.95O
11:02:0711.25910102.38UT
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Trinity (TRIN) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
22/9/2017
09:20
Trinity Daily Update: Trinity is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TRIN. The last closing price for Trinity was 11p.
Trinity has a 4 week average price of 9.99p and a 12 week average price of 9.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 18.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 1.88p.
There are currently 282,399,986 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 634,867 shares. The market capitalisation of Trinity is £32,475,998.39.
22/9/2017
12:23
whiskeyinthejar: There's nothing wrong with borrowing to invest. Trinity say just one infill well at Trinites will produce 300 bopd. At $50 thats $5.5m in revenue per year. Most of that would be profit as our costs are mostly fixed and already covered. Trinity have identified 20 in fill drilling targets at Trinites. So when they get around to it, potentially thats 20 x 300= 6000 bopd. Or $110m per year in revenue. Im not sure how much drilling they will do next year, but the more they drill, the more they can afford to drill. However the drilling is cheap and the wells hold their production. Low decline rates. Low risk as it's all 3D mapped. They say they can drill these targets from existing platforms. Trinity bonus requires them to get the share price to 35p and the BOD own 25% of the company so our interests are aligned. Perhaps theyll farm out TGAL to raise funds. It's all here. Particularly page 20. Http://www.trinityexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Trinity-Corporate-Presentation-Conference-June-2017-Final-Draft.pdf
15/9/2017
13:30
che7win: Oil goes one way, Trin share price the opposite?
10/9/2017
23:28
whiskeyinthejar: Most of my shares in Trinity were bought after I sold out of another AIM oil company -Ithaca. I tripled my money on Ithaca over 18 months. There was no strike it rich event. But the share price steadily rose as market anticipated production growth. So Ive no idea how fast Trinity share price will rise, but Im absolutely certain we don't need exploration wells. We already got millions of barrels of oil. A golden rule of trading is to keep your emotions out . Advfn posters who go chasing excitement arent therefore traders IMO, they are gamblers. Most traders lose, all gamblers lose. Anyway, this is time of year when capex budgets are agreed. Trinity has plenty of cash. A couple of offshore in-fill drills ought to be cheap, low risk and capable of adding 1000 bopd of production. But I dont know what Bruce has to announce on 25th. However he seems to be placing significance on it with a investors event the same day as the update and results. In any case, IMO it's difficult to imagine with production now growing, and market anticipating ever more production that we will be stuck on 10p for too much longer. An improving story usually means an improving share price.
28/8/2017
15:06
whiskeyinthejar: Oil price is certainly a factor in TRIN share price I think, but not necessarily the spot price itself as rossannan says. It's fear and greed, rather than arithmetic. The wti bottom for this year was mid June at about $42. But TRIN is roughly at the same price now as it was in mid June. Rising wti does help us though. But its the direction of wti though thats often more important, rather than the spot price. eg wti at $45 on a rising trend will encourage investors to buy shares in oil companies, but if wti is at $50 and falling day by day they'll tend to wait to buy oil shares, hoping to buy cheaper later. In fact I think the company has made some modest progress since it peaked at 18.5p in March and IMO there's no fundamental reason for it falling back almost 50%. But the story IMHO has been this down trend and waiting for confirmation that the bottom is in. However, it looks like we may have finally bottomed so we might get a run up now ahead of trading update. Especially as production has bottomed now and should continue trending up now I think.
11/8/2017
10:57
rossannan: mark10101 Just can't agree about manipulation - in fact could not disagree more - this is all just lack of demand. Too many AIM investors don't want to wait. Understandable when cash burn ensures that many AIM share prices deteriorate over time and only news, or at least the prospect of news, can stop the rot, but TRIN is a lot further up the food chain than those kind of plays. Happy to wait as long as it takes for the penny to drop and TRIN's share price to bag and bag.
05/8/2017
11:05
rossannan: WINGSPANFair comment - once bitten etc. First time round the market will buy into the most unrealistic speculation but second time round it's strictly "show me the money". You can see this with CERP too. CERP's case for a higher share price requires some reasonable speculation from the market and the market's just not up for it. The annoying thing is that TRIN's case for a higher share price really just requires that we are not being lied to...
30/5/2017
16:48
whiskeyinthejar: Bones, I wasn't really responding about whether Touchstone will spike. Actually I don't think it matters whether their share price spikes, although I will follow their drama a bit. I just wanted to do a comparison. TRIN unfortunately I think gets lumped in sometimes with other Trinidadian oil companies which just aren't big enough. The 2016 problems at TRIN has made the argument that TRIN is different more difficult. This is what is weighing on share price imo. But as we know,even by the agm, we should see production rising again and later in year TRIN should report a H1 profit.
07/3/2017
07:43
whiskeyinthejar: The technicals arent stretched imo because you have to expect a high rsi given the transformational change. TRIN was looking pretty screwed but now it has bright future. So how quickly would you expect a restructuring transformation to be priced in? Not overnight, but it shouldn't take more than a few months either. I don't see buying drying up until the new financial situation is priced in. And by then we may have more reasons to hold. I trade on momentum as well as value. So I build positions, let my winning trades run and try to close out my losers quickly. IMO if you take a profit too soon and sit on losses instead, overall you'll lose money on the market. Its not intuitive. People think the share price is going down means -'its cheap so time to buy' or share price going up means 'its 'time to sell'. Doesn't work imo because cheap shares tend to get cheaper and shares going up, tend to keep going up. Or put it another way- both share prices and markets tend to over shoot both to the upside and the downside. IMO you don't want to be caught on wrong side of this. So I topped up yesterday because I build into a position, momentum is bullish and my exit point (based on value) is some way off. Im not going to try to trade any pull back as Im not really a trader and I think the spread is too great.
30/7/2015
07:26
cammy3: Trinity Exploration and ProductionIt's no secret I have a very substantial holding in Trinity with a base cost now just over double the current share price. Trinity is an oddity in the E & P sector and is very misunderstood. It faces challenges not dissimilar from most E & P companies in this space - the misunderstanding arises around the assets, their intrinsic value and the step change the Board are trying to achieve in the production and reserves profile of the company.AssetsOnshore Assets producing c.2000-2,500boepd of low cost oil. Break even at c.8-10USD per barrelTrientes field produces the balance production of c.1,200 boepd but through lack of capex has generally underperformed. Optimisation of well design is a key factor and this has not been forthcoming in this oil price environment,TGAL discovery - c.200boepd (management best estimate of 186mboe gross) which they are looking to develop jointly in phased approach with Trientes with a partner (yet to be agreed).Centrica gas assets (40mboe of ready to develop assets. 6 wells already drilled and can be brought online with infrastructure in place). The deal has yet to complete and part of the FSP is aimed at funding the balance of the purchase price of 20.5m USD. these assets are extremely attractive. Trinity is paying $25m for them, Centrica having spent $220m on the exploration, appraisal and wells.(NB. Opex cost of production now 22USD (probably lower as management not taking salaries). Overall, excluding 1P and 2P reserves, the above provides Trinity with over 70mboe of developable reserves.)FinancialsThis is where there is much confusion amongst many pi's invested here as to where the holes in the finances lie. I have summarised below:Cash 7.3m Receivables (oil and VAT of11.2m) 27.2mInventories 11.5m Assets 46mLess:Debt 13mTrade payables 33.9mTax payable 18.4mLiabilities 65.3m There is therefore a working capital deficit of c.15-20m USD depending on current position. In addition the company needs to find an additional 20.5m USD to fund the balance of the Centrica purchase. the board have stated that the debt to Citi will be repaid from proceeds realised from the strategic review. I have no doubt there will be a refinancing and likely project finance available for gas fields but this would be post liquidation of the Citi principal.Objectives of FSP (As I see it)In my view it is pretty simple:1. Through whatever means necessary plug the working capital deficit and ensure that gas deals can complete. Ultimately this means raising in my view 45-50m USD whilst ensuring that the company can be relatively self supporting going forward.2. Work out the least dilutive and most value accretive way of doing this. The Board in their recent analyst call stated that this would most likely take the form of a combination of sales, farm outs and potentially a strategic investor. This seems sensible but it is admittedly a lot to achieve in this market. We can take some comfort from the fact that Trinity was approached with a number of offers/proposals for a range of its assets so whilst encouraging, we would hope that the recent oil price weakness or any lack of competitive tendering as a result does not hinder them moving towards simultaneous closing of deals.Encouragingly, more recently Monty stated in the AGM statement that the progress made to date had underlined their belief in the value of the companies assets.Value realisationThere are clearly a number of routes that Trinity could proceed along. I would suggest the most likely is the following:1. Sale of onshore assets for up to $25-30m.2. A strategic investor who will take up to 20-30% of the company. (See similar scenario with IOG). I would also suggest that the price paid would be at a decent premium to the current share price.3.A farm out of Trients/TGAL to develop on a phased basis in accordance with their FDP4. GSA (supposedly ready) and farm out of of gas fields along with debt/project finance.Its a tall ask, but Trinity have been working on it for a while. Clearly there will be some dilution but this does not bother me one iota. The reason being, the current market cap is £10m and I think any equity would be via a strategic partner at a premium. The equity market directly I would argue is currently closed off on valuation grounds. given the upside valuation of assets below to believe there is not significant upside from 10p you would have to believe that the equity issuance would be so penal (ie 300% of current equity in issue). I think that is commercially not viable.From a valuation perspective, I refer to Jeffries Broker note which attaches a price target of 16p to Trinity until the upside scenario becomes more clear in terms of whether they can pull the above off. their upside case on a risked basis is 45p (unrisked of 102p).Individual Asset Valuations:Jeffries conservatively value the onshore assets on a risked basis of 25p per share (valuing each onshore barrel at $6.2) or in USD terms $39m.The Trientes undeveloped aspects and the TGAL discovery have risked values of 48p and 40p per share respectively. The unrisked values are set at 109p and 142 respectively. Clearly, these assets need to be farmed out. the value of the developed assets at Trientes are probably neutral at present until further capital can be injected to enhance performance. We have to hope they are not a liability. With farm out and higher oil prices/infrastructure cost savings via economies of scale Trinity should be able to access a good proportion of the risked and unrisked upside here.Then to the gas fields. These, I have stated before are the golden goose - if they can complete the deal by raising the 20.5m and funding the devt then the upside case is very significant. Jeffries value conservatively, with large discounts for success case ahead of financing the risked values of the 1a1b fields as 33p and the unrisked value of £2.13. Clearly this has been heavily discounted due to the fact the deal/financing has not been concluded. This is why I am relatively comfortable that even with some strategic dilution, it would take an enormous amount to render the current share price reflective of value. As it stands the share price represents the uncertainty of Trinity being able to consummate the various parts of the necessary financing rather than the value of the assets. They will have to give some away, but doing so should enable them to access a step change in production and valuation.Overall, its high risk high reward. Its a brutal market, and Trinity have not just one but potentially multiple deals to do to pull this off. I understand the GSA/farm out of the gas fields was almost ready pending completion. But, asset valuations will continue to be hit by lower prevailing oil prices. the big risk is that they cannot consummate deals. Whils tI believe equity will be issued at a premium I would be surprised if equity was issued as part of the FSP on current valuations. Equally, they need to turn the VAT debtor into cash and we need to be updated on progress here otherwise this will hold up recapitalisation. The book on Trinity is now very tight. 20k of stock will move the price a penny. In these markets uncertainty is penalised so Trinity must now secure the deals they have promised. Is they do, the upside from here is very significant. If they don't, the gas fields must be relinquished. Not one for the feint hearted but still potentially massive upside at this level. They have an extremely strong board with a strong track record. I think this could drag on for longer whilst Trinity put their ducks in order. All the pieces need to fall together for it to work.
23/7/2015
15:04
griff2711: Excellent write up on motley fool by a large shareholder:Trinity Exploration and ProductionIt's no secret I have a very substantial holding in Trinity with a base cost now just over double the current share price. Trinity is an oddity in the E & P sector and is very misunderstood. It faces challenges not dissimilar from most E & P companies in this space - the misunderstanding arises around the assets, their intrinsic value and the step change the Board are trying to achieve in the production and reserves profile of the company.AssetsOnshore Assets producing c.2000-2,500boepd of low cost oil. Break even at c.8-10USD per barrelTrientes field produces the balance production of c.1,200 boepd but through lack of capex has generally underperformed. Optimisation of well design is a key factor and this has not been forthcoming in this oil price environment,TGAL discovery - c.200boepd (management best estimate of 186mboe gross) which they are looking to develop jointly in phased approach with Trientes with a partner (yet to be agreed).Centrica gas assets (40mboe of ready to develop assets. 6 wells already drilled and can be brought online with infrastructure in place). The deal has yet to complete and part of the FSP is aimed at funding the balance of the purchase price of 20.5m USD. these assets are extremely attractive. Trinity is paying $25m for them, Centrica having spent $220m on the exploration, appraisal and wells.(NB. Opex cost of production now 22USD (probably lower as management not taking salaries). Overall, excluding 1P and 2P reserves, the above provides Trinity with over 70mboe of developable reserves.)FinancialsThis is where there is much confusion amongst many pi's invested here as to where the holes in the finances lie. I have summarised below:Cash 7.3m Receivables (oil and VAT of11.2m) 27.2mInventories 11.5m Assets 46mLess:Debt 13mTrade payables 33.9mTax payable 18.4mLiabilities 65.3m There is therefore a working capital deficit of c.15-20m USD depending on current position. In addition the company needs to find an additional 20.5m USD to fund the balance of the Centrica purchase. the board have stated that the debt to Citi will be repaid from proceeds realised from the strategic review. I have no doubt there will be a refinancing and likely project finance available for gas fields but this would be post liquidation of the Citi principal.Objectives of FSP (As I see it)In my view it is pretty simple:1. Through whatever means necessary plug the working capital deficit and ensure that gas deals can complete. Ultimately this means raising in my view 45-50m USD whilst ensuring that the company can be relatively self supporting going forward.2. Work out the least dilutive and most value accretive way of doing this. The Board in their recent analyst call stated that this would most likely take the form of a combination of sales, farm outs and potentially a strategic investor. This seems sensible but it is admittedly a lot to achieve in this market. We can take some comfort from the fact that Trinity was approached with a number of offers/proposals for a range of its assets so whilst encouraging, we would hope that the recent oil price weakness or any lack of competitive tendering as a result does not hinder them moving towards simultaneous closing of deals.Encouragingly, more recently Monty stated in the AGM statement that the progress made to date had underlined their belief in the value of the companies assets.Value realisationThere are clearly a number of routes that Trinity could proceed along. I would suggest the most likely is the following:1. Sale of onshore assets for up to $25-30m.2. A strategic investor who will take up to 20-30% of the company. (See similar scenario with IOG). I would also suggest that the price paid would be at a decent premium to the current share price.3.A farm out of Trients/TGAL to develop on a phased basis in accordance with their FDP4. GSA (supposedly ready) and farm out of of gas fields along with debt/project finance.Its a tall ask, but Trinity have been working on it for a while. Clearly there will be some dilution but this does not bother me one iota. The reason being, the current market cap is £10m and I think any equity would be via a strategic partner at a premium. The equity market directly I would argue is currently closed off on valuation grounds. given the upside valuation of assets below to believe there is not significant upside from 10p you would have to believe that the equity issuance would be so penal (ie 300% of current equity in issue). I think that is commercially not viable.From a valuation perspective, I refer to Jeffries Broker note which attaches a price target of 16p to Trinity until the upside scenario becomes more clear in terms of whether they can pull the above off. their upside case on a risked basis is 45p (unrisked of 102p).Individual Asset Valuations:Jeffries conservatively value the onshore assets on a risked basis of 25p per share (valuing each onshore barrel at $6.2) or in USD terms $39m.The Trientes undeveloped aspects and the TGAL discovery have risked values of 48p and 40p per share respectively. The unrisked values are set at 109p and 142 respectively. Clearly, these assets need to be farmed out. the value of the developed assets at Trientes are probably neutral at present until further capital can be injected to enhance performance. We have to hope they are not a liability. With farm out and higher oil prices/infrastructure cost savings via economies of scale Trinity should be able to access a good proportion of the risked and unrisked upside here.Then to the gas fields. These, I have stated before are the golden goose - if they can complete the deal by raising the 20.5m and funding the devt then the upside case is very significant. Jeffries value conservatively, with large discounts for success case ahead of financing the risked values of the 1a1b fields as 33p and the unrisked value of £2.13. Clearly this has been heavily discounted due to the fact the deal/financing has not been concluded. This is why I am relatively comfortable that even with some strategic dilution, it would take an enormous amount to render the current share price reflective of value. As it stands the share price represents the uncertainty of Trinity being able to consummate the various parts of the necessary financing rather than the value of the assets. They will have to give some away, but doing so should enable them to access a step change in production and valuation.Overall, its high risk high reward. Its a brutal market, and Trinity have not just one but potentially multiple deals to do to pull this off. I understand the GSA/farm out of the gas fields was almost ready pending completion. But, asset valuations will continue to be hit by lower prevailing oil prices. the big risk is that they cannot consummate deals. Whils tI believe equity will be issued at a premium I would be surprised if equity was issued as part of the FSP on current valuations. Equally, they need to turn the VAT debtor into cash and we need to be updated on progress here otherwise this will hold up recapitalisation. The book on Trinity is now very tight. 20k of stock will move the price a penny. In these markets uncertainty is penalised so Trinity must now secure the deals they have promised. Is they do, the upside from here is very significant. If they don't, the gas fields must be relinquished. Not one for the feint hearted but still potentially massive upside at this level. They have an extremely strong board with a strong track record. I think this could drag on for longer whilst Trinity put their ducks in order. All the pieces need to fall together for it to work.Twitter : @oilinvestorlanc
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