Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[whiskeyinthejar] 01/6/2018 11:42

Nice one. Showing a sell as you got them under midprice.

[mount teide] 01/6/2018 11:08

Could't resist that 54,000 on offer at 22.92p!

[whiskeyinthejar] 31/5/2018 21:43

Mark, they don't sell in Brent. Petrotrin has internal pricing that they dont publish.

Management of Trinity decide to guide shareholders by referring them to wti, but wti nor Brent dictate Petrotrin prices.

[mark10101] 31/5/2018 21:32

Otemple, yes TXP sell in Brent but typically at a much steeper discount to us on WTI, and like we saw at the end of last year if conditions prevail we can sell above WTI prices. I suspect in a free market (we sell via Petrotrin) our medium density oil (like Brent) will be selling nearer to Brent than to the discounted prices WTI is suffering due to infrastructure issues.

[whiskeyinthejar] 31/5/2018 21:26

Yes Trinity also sell at a discount to Brent. ;) It's just a different way of saying the same thing.

But the price received by TXP and Trinity for oil, say in 2017, differs little.

It's just that management have decided here the best way to guide shareholders is point to a discount to wti. Petrotrin use wti in their reporting, so do Trinidad government.

So what Im saying is discount to wti might be a poor guide now. Or discount might be lessening.

[otemple3] 31/5/2018 20:50

WITJ, interestingly on the txp board someone has just said (and given quotes to prove) that they sell based on a discount to Brent - odd that we use different market prices as a base!

[whiskeyinthejar] 31/5/2018 20:04

Yes, perhaps nice to have as you say. I think you're only allowed to buy back shares using profits.

wti discount to Brent is now over $11. This they say is down to capacity issues:



Trinidad uses wti benchmark but Im thinking capacity issues in Texas has little to do with Trinidad so our sale prices may be better than the usual model.

Last year we got detailed update with agm, expect we'll get same again on June 19th.

[esmerelda] 31/5/2018 17:08

Surely it is no more than one of the standard AGM motions that I see most companies put forward (the other being permission to issue shares)? Even if they sold West Coast assets and repaid all the debt/CLNs it is difficult to see how a share repurchase rather than investment in new drilling could benefit shareholders more. However it is good governance to have that flexibility in place.

[mark10101] 31/5/2018 12:33

Hi GO, yes I really liked that when I read it in the AGM circular. There is certainly work to be done to pay down CLN’s and government debt first, but this will provide a very positive boost sitting there in the background. Essentiallly an inverse CLN effect.

[trulyscrumptious] 30/5/2018 20:46

Hi FFP. Nothing goes up in a straight line for long. Look at the chart, it goes up, has a rest, goes down a shade, goes up a shade, another little rest, jump up, another little rest... get the idea? The company seems to be well run and the oil price is unlikely to come crashing down. I have no worry about the daily fluctuations in the share price, the general long term trend is up.

[ffp] 30/5/2018 20:25

Just need to keep my confidence up.. I am a very inexperienced investor. Sort of got into TRIN more by chance that skill but really glad I am here with you lot.

[melody9999] 30/5/2018 19:30

OP increase bodes well for share price rise. Nothing wrong with a quiet thread though.

[wwick] 30/5/2018 19:30

ffp I was buying today, looks good to me

[ffp] 30/5/2018 18:57

All looking a bit sad at the moment...and very quiet here?

[mark10101] 28/5/2018 11:19

Absolutely, I was investing in a fracker in the Permian basin in 2014 when the articles were trashing them, they moved IP from 600bopd to 1600bpd in under 2years, such great advances that could not be ignore. £30m of bebt and $30 oil means somone else is enjoying some of the best acreage in the Permian basin atm. So much at stake with the most important commodity on the planet, it is hardly surprised political and fundamentals are in constant flux.

[mark10101] 28/5/2018 10:14

MT, we are certainly in an interesting space in the coming years, plenty of twists and turns to come.

[mark10101] 28/5/2018 10:12

Ross yes on the long view the day to day movements are not of interest anymore, and on reflection that article was interesting as it’s style/stance indicates to me this is a political move to nip what looked like a very rapid rise into the $80’s nicely in the bud. However over the long term interventions to stop oil racing too far ahead will help us. Your previous posts about higher oil damaging demand is a real fear at higher prices, would much prefer the boiling the lobster approach. As far as TRIN is concerned we are in a good place atm.

[mount teide] 28/5/2018 01:11

’Biggest Ever Change’’ In Oil Markets Could Send Prices Higher - OilPrice.com today



'An upcoming regulation that analysts have called “the biggest change in oil market history” and the “the most disruptive change in the refining industry” is lurking just around the corner, and experts say that it will drive oil prices higher as it will fundamentally shift the demand pattern for fuels.


“This is going to be the most disruptive change to hit the refining industry in its history,” Chris Midgley, global head of Platts Analytics, said. “Unlike other specification changes seen by the industry, this isn’t a little bit of tweaking.”

The regulation will send demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil soaring, and refiners will have to shift some of the products they will be processing from crude oil, analysts concur.

The stricter regulation on the fuels used by the shipping industry will result in booming demand for middle distillates that would boost crude oil demand by additional 1.5 million bpd, potentially sending oil prices to as high as $90 a barrel in 2020, Morgan Stanley said last week.

In fuel oil prices, the forward curve has not yet fully priced in the new regulation, according to research from S&P Global Platts Analytics last month.........

According to Rick Joswick, managing director for downstream oil analytics at Platts, the forward curve for middle distillates currently shows little change between 2019 and 2020—underestimating the impact of the new rules. “The market has not appreciated yet the degree and scope of these changes,” Joswick said.

“While there has been breathless attention paid to prompt Brent prices climbing to $80 a barrel for the first time since 2014, what has received less attention is that the entire Brent forward curve is now trading above $60, including contracts for delivery as far out as December 2024. This development is an important psychological milestone for the oil market. The market is, in effect, saying that ‘lower for longer’ is dead,” Sen and Elguindi wrote.

Looming shortages of supply and strong demand will combine with the marine fuel regulation in 2020 to put additional pressure on the physical oil market. Demand for diesel and ultra-low sulfur fuel is expected to jump by 2 million bpd-3 million bpd, Energy Aspects analysts noted.

“Nothing ever moves in a straight line, but the broader oil market is perhaps not prepared for what will happen to oil prices over the next couple of years,” they concluded.'

[mark10101] 27/5/2018 21:16

Wow, Ross you read that and thought it was worth posting...

An article that attacks hedge fund managers for getting ahead of themselves because they think they understood the market, which then proceeded to provide no market relevant information at all.

Who knows oil may fall further from here but there is substantially more data suggesting the market is tightening rapidly than this awful piece of journalism. It is quite possible Friday fall was a cascade of stop losses from traders putting in protection for the long weekend in the US, so largely technical.

One thing I do agree with the article is that it is a very political commodity so fundamental analysis is not all you can rely on.