Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[mark10101] 25/5/2018 14:02

I have put the 2017 Annual report in the header in the links section.

[mark10101] 25/5/2018 11:33

TBF it looked like it was wanting to back test $70 WTI, also Brent failed to take out $80 so hopefully a bit of a pause rather than a reversal. See what the US open brings.

[the big fella] 25/5/2018 11:00

Oil off a touch recently

[bones] 25/5/2018 10:27

Agreed Shrewdmole. Shake out the weaker hands.

[shrewdmole] 25/5/2018 10:26

Bones

They are being soaked up well enough.

S

[bones] 25/5/2018 09:55

There's a persistent seller at these levels offering bargains up!

[shrewdmole] 25/5/2018 08:36

I've been adding including this morning.

Trin looks like it could and should be mid 30's very quickly.

Still on a pe of 5.

S

[trulyscrumptious] 25/5/2018 08:24

Great start to the day!

[bones] 25/5/2018 08:06

Excellent article by Michael C on LinkedIn:



EDIT: Apologies Mark, already posted by you yesterday :)

[mark10101] 24/5/2018 16:14

Yep, 26p is just a step on the bigger journey we are taking.

[wwick] 24/5/2018 16:05

I am so blase at 26

[mark10101] 24/5/2018 13:50

Another Excellent write up by Michael C.

[shrewdmole] 24/5/2018 13:31

Definitely

[phowdo] 24/5/2018 13:10

Someone is bidding for stock...

[mark10101] 24/5/2018 12:59

With yet another UT looks like the MM are still working some sort of deal, but with oil in the $70’s the market knows this should be in the 30’s as a base for the more exciting news that could come.

[shrewdmole] 24/5/2018 10:27

nice chunky buy just gone through

[mark10101] 24/5/2018 09:54

TRIN on the move again, at a forward PE of 5 hardly surprising.

[mount teide] 23/5/2018 09:56

The global shipping fleet which represents 5% of global oil consumption is currently the last outlet for low cost, high sulphur 'dirty' oil.

New International Maritime Organisation Rules(IMO) effective early 2020 require shipowners to comply with a seven fold reduction in the concentration of sulfur used in their engine fuels.

Although shipowners have a number of options regarding compliance, the least expensive over the short/medium term is the capex free route of switching over to low sulfur fuels such as gasoil.


The Regulations That Could Push Oil Up To $90 - OilPrice.com today




'The IEA says that by 2020, demand for gasoil will shoot up to 1.74 million b/d, an increase of over 1 mb/d relative to 2018. That will displace the heavy fuel oil that is currently widespread. The IEA says that high-sulfur fuel oil demand will crater from 3.2 mb/d in 2019 to just 1.3 mb/d in 2020.

“We foresee a scramble for middle distillates that will drive crack spreads higher and drag oil prices with it,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.

The investment bank said that Brent crude prices could jump to $90 per barrel, aided by the IMO regulations and the rush to secure compliant fuel. “The last period of severe middle distillate tightness occurred in late-2007/early-2008 and arguably was the critical factor that drove up Brent prices in that period,” Morgan Stanley wrote.

Already, stocks of middle distillates have declined below the five-year average in Europe, the U.S. and Asia. “The additional gasoil needed in 2020 is likely to trigger a spike in diesel prices. In our forecast, we assume an increase of 20 percent to 30 percent in that year,” the IEA said.

The intriguing conclusion from this scenario is that U.S. shale can’t be the solution. The flood of oil coming from the Permian basin is light and sweet, which tends to be transformed into gasoline, and is not suited for the production of middle distillates. Medium and heavy blends are more preferable for the distillates needed for maritime fuels, but those barrels are being held off of the market right now by the OPEC cuts.

“We expect the crude oil market to remain under-supplied and inventories to continue to draw,” the bank said. “This will likely underpin prices.”

[mark10101] 22/5/2018 23:28

Not wanting to derail things any further talking about a stock not related to TRIN. But my observations from their 2018 QRT 1 results.

hxxp://www.trans-globe.com/upload/financial_reports/18/02/2018-q-1-interim-report.pdf

- Reported a net loss of $10.1 million, which included a $6.0 million unrealized derivative loss on commodity contracts (mark-to-market loss on the Company's hedging contracts)

- And $67m in debt (net Debt of $36m)

- Production is declining

The reason TRIN is catching attention is it is extremely profitable, production is increasing and we are looking to pay down all debt by the end of the year (currently net debt positive).

Looking at BOPD (in this case BOEPD) is not a simple route to valuation. Realised prices are important especially if a lot of gas is produced.

Having said that with oil at $70 a lot of companies will be moving into profitability, it is just TRIN is already there reaping the rewards.

[darola] 22/5/2018 22:12

Netbacks on slide 17. Circa $20 at current oil price.