Tricorn Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 07/12/2016 16:26

EPS rose by 1.8p between 2010 and 2011 as its markets recoveed. Why do you think a 2.0p rise should be impossible between 2016 and 2017 if the company is now a bit bigger and its markets have started to recover?

[discodave4] 07/12/2016 16:04

So you expect eps to increase 110x for next year in line with the single (house broker?) broker f/cast?. Good luck with that!.DD

[aleman] 07/12/2016 14:29

I said next year. Your figures are for this year which have the weak H1 in them. Komatsu only started showing strong sales growth in the last few months and TCN interims end in September. TCN's markets look like they should have picked up a bit for H2 and we have new contracts which suggest better to come. I hope to see next year rather stronger if Caterpillar start to pick up as well - not that these are TCN's only customers; they are just companies that do monthly sales figures which help indicate market activity.

[discodave4] 07/12/2016 14:10

AlemanFair points, but a lot has changed since the last recession. They do seem to be turning the corner.That said don't know how you get a PE of 5.7, this FY on forecast eps (0.2p) its 62x, but doubt they will achieve f/cast eps, H1 was 0.01, so annualised 0.02 that's a PE of 625....unless I'm missing something doesn't look value to me!.DD

[meijiman] 07/12/2016 11:38

Reinstatement of the dividend as well.

[meijiman] 07/12/2016 10:49

What is the Stockdale eps forecast for the year ahead? Tricorn would normally be confident of doing a bit better on the under promise/over deliver model.

[aleman] 07/12/2016 09:52

I presume you would have said the similar after the interims at the end of 2009, then, when the business stabilised with negligible earnings and similar adjusted operating cashflow. (Revenue down 42.5%, PBT down 87%, and basic EPS down 92%.) The numbers and outlook then were broadly similar - the only significant difference is the business now has twice the debt and 3.5 times as much property, plant and equipment and a Chinese investment whose 660k valuation almost certainly does not represent its ability to contribute future profit and cashflow. The share price is slightly higher now than then but the company has stabilised as a bigger business. The shares nearly doubled between reporting H2/2009 and H1/2010, as the second half 2009 numbers made it clear that a recovery had set in, and then doubled again by the time H2 2010 was reported. Any time after the interims in 2009 would have been a very profitable time to buy. Hopefully we will see a similar recovery this time as the outlook and the Stockdale forecast suggest, although nobody knows what is to come with the messy political outlook in the US, UK and elsehwere at the moment.

[discodave4] 07/12/2016 08:01

Looks good when compared to the last 6 months (which was dire), but compared to the same period last year it doesn't look so good. Revenue down 12% but pbt down 90%, also after restructuring costs, intangible asset amortisation, share based payment charges and credits relating to foreign exchange derivative contracts the Group made an operating loss of £0.066m (2015: operating profit of £0.098m).Eps doesn't support the current share price IMO.DD

[aleman] 07/12/2016 07:51

Interim results seem very much in line. The balance sheet showed a small decrease due to lower intangibles. Adjusted for working capital movements, operating cashflow shows a modest but significant rise which, added to contract news, bodes well for the near future. I suspect the market will be underwhelmed but it looks like the company is on a sound footing, growing again and I would hope the full year forecast could possibly be beaten slightly.

[meijiman] 06/12/2016 12:51

The interims are tomorrow. I'm finally looking forward to reading what they have to say after several years of being rather anxious about the results.The US business seems to be coming together nicely. Less sure about China but costs have been taken out of this operation.

[aleman] 06/12/2016 12:46

Grinding higher like 2004 or about to shoot up lke 2010? Or something else?

[aleman] 05/12/2016 15:51

Komatsu usage stats (not sales) look to have improved again in September. I think China lifted some restrictions on domestic miners after import prices rose strongly.

[charo] 30/11/2016 08:21

Absolutely not new business but secured existing business,volumes in my experience will not be guaranteed.If PE TRUMP breaks the habits of a lifetime and actually carries out major infrastructure investment then cat and deere will gain big.
However the NEW YORK TIMES THIS WEEK SHOWED THAT SO MUCH OF TRUMPS SO CALLED INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS is in deep trouble and his business insolvency record should be deeply concerning.

[aleman] 30/11/2016 07:49

It does not look like the contract annnounced today is all new business but £1.55m per year does seem to be a big vote of confidence and underpin prospects for recovery.

[aleman] 24/11/2016 08:01

Deere and Caterpillar shares rise:

[ansc] 22/11/2016 12:41

meijiman

20 Nov '16 - 18:43 - 1704 of 1706 (Filtered)

[guerdale] 22/11/2016 11:20

Like DISCOdAVE,I suggest Meijiman changes his nom de plume to "Confused".

[discodave4] 20/11/2016 20:10

Nope, you seem confused, did respond to your posts because didn't agree.....but yep, will ignore them from now on as you don't seem to know what you think.DD

[meijiman] 20/11/2016 18:43

Your best bet then is to ignore them. You can then respond to posters you agree with.

[discodave4] 20/11/2016 15:34

Perhaps you should re-read your posts, and mine, as it's clear you do not understand the meaning of sarcasm, I am anything but confused by your posts!.You have posted more than once that this could not be taken over and that they do not care about the share price - which you have also mentioned a couple of months ago, that does not constitute a "flippant" remark and I also fail to see the irony.DD

[meijiman] 19/11/2016 14:25

No need to be confused -perhaps you need to understand irony a bit better.
A flippant remark not intended to be taken entirely seriously.
Probably a modest reaction to holding TCN for years with no capital appreciation and seeming inertia from the management in comparison with say Avingtrans which might be seen as a near comparitor.
Anyway I am feeling rather perky post Avesco and wondering why I had never topped up on my fairly modest holding there.
There is no way of knowing what views RA has about his holding but to my mind there must have been a considerable opportunity cost in holding such a large slug of TCN and with no divi in recent times. Avesco is an example of a company where there was a large holding -in this case the Chairman with 30% who decided he wanted to exit. RA's holding could well act as a catalyst for something to happen at TCN on the corporate front.Equally RA could be holding his stake when he is 83 or 93. Who knows.
Your second point is entirely valid -I truly hope these options do incentivize the management to deliver something for shareholders as well.

[discodave4] 19/11/2016 13:17

meijiman - 10 Nov 2016 - 10:02 - 1694 of 1700 - 0"..... and they can't be taken over, they may not be bothered whether the share price is 2p or 20p."Slightly confused - 1) why can't they be taken over?, Roger Allsop is 73 and must be thinking about retiring and possibly offloading his shares. If someone took them off his hands they would have to formerly put an offer in for the Company.2) may not be bothered whether the share price is 2p or 20p?, The BoD have share options and LTIP's from 17.5p to 20p and beyond. Think they are sufficiently incentivised to not only keep taking their salaries but also to drive the share price up in order to exercise their options.DD

[meijiman] 11/11/2016 11:00

I agree with alter ego! In fact I was thinking about when the shares were once high flying (over 30p)-don't recall them using their paper to do deals.
Obviously there are lots of reasons why a company would like the share price higher-but one of the factors which differentiates TCN is that it can't really be taken over.

[alter ego] 11/11/2016 10:44

I agree with meijiman - all he said was they are not bothered about a low share price as they don't use their stock for acquisitions. Nothing there that says they should IMO.