Tricorn Share Discussion Threads

[guerdale] 11/11/2016 10:22

meijiman. I suggest you reread your comment and then issue a correction.

[meijiman] 11/11/2016 10:10

I'm obviously not suggesting that.

[guerdale] 11/11/2016 08:54

If Meijiman thinks the company should issue paper at this level and massively dilute shareholders he should be investing in Premium Bonds and not equities.

[aleman] 10/11/2016 10:49

The company has grown quite a bit over a couple of economic cycles. It seems to prefer to spend generated cash on aquisitions, which has limited dividends to only the better years. Overall, though, it seems to be on an expansive path without dilution. It does need a lot of patience for shareholders, though, as the market often does not seem to want to recognise the progress. It is quite hard to maintain the faith at the bottom of the downturns but I think sharholders will see the progress better in the next upturn.

[meijiman] 10/11/2016 10:02

Aleman-If the company agreed with these numbers (which certainly seem sensible) wouldn't they tell their adviser to put out a note with them in it. What concerns me is that as they don't use their paper for acquisitions, and they can't be taken over, they may not be bothered whether the share price is 2p or 20p.
That hardly represents an alignment of interests with shareholders.
Still things may be finally looking up here.

[aleman] 10/11/2016 09:26

EPS for next year were forecasted at 2.2p on £900k PTP. The new Volvo contract might nudge us up to, say, £1m and 2.4p EPS? Forward p/e around 4? Seems harsh for a company recovering from a very deep cyclical recession in heavy industrial equipment. If we can get through the interims satisfactorily, we might see a 2018 forecast of 3p+. If all goes well, the 2018 P/E looks to be around 3 and market cap/EBITDA might be nearer 2. I know there is water to pass under the bridge but the bottom might now be behind us, with the help of this new contract.

[gingerplant] 10/11/2016 07:36

Contract worth 8.2pps in gross value; not too shabby. Turnover of £2.8m over 4 years.

[aleman] 09/11/2016 16:36

Komatsu now producing strong numbers outside North America and the Middle East.

[meijiman] 27/10/2016 08:43

Why indeed. Why is the large shareholder content to watch years of drift?

[charo] 26/10/2016 21:47

Cat down yellow goods down across board 2017 forecast poor.this is a mickey mouse operation pretending to be godzilla. Inadequate board but supportive shareholders over many years ,why?????

[aleman] 26/10/2016 09:57

Caterpillar Q3 results out. Guidance suggests a very small (negligible?) fall in revenues for 2017. I think this is good because we know Komatsu has been doing better than Caterpillar and this seems to almost confirm that Komatsu will see sales growth since they have a stronger presence in Asia which even Caterpillar says is doing better.



I suggest TCN's markets might see a return to growth in 2017 after bottoming in late H2 2016. This is the same prediction I've been making for several months now and seems to be becoming a reality. I should caution that I think the US and UK are going into recession , and Europe is still struggling with rumbling banking instability - these could easily undermine recent strength in commodity prices.

[aleman] 18/10/2016 16:24

Komatsu shares up by 1/3rd since July as industrial orders pick up strongly. Mining orders remain better but mixed.

[apad] 11/10/2016 08:48

I agree, Aleman. I am assuming that the China patch wont impact too much or they would have to say in the rns.
apad

[aleman] 11/10/2016 07:45

So, trading in line with forecasts on recovering revenue. It's worth remembering that the forecast is 0.2p eps this year and 2.2p and a dividend next year. That's a prospective p/e of less than 5 and a dividend that could be around 5% and rising quickly if all goes as anticipated. Komatsu and Caterpillar numbers suggests industrial equipment markets are beginning to recover after a deep recession so turnover should continue to rise. It's worth remembering the company recovred quickly in the last recession under the same management. Although nobody knows what the longer term will bring, oil and metals prices have continued to rise of late. All looks quite promising for now.

[aleman] 07/10/2016 07:40

Oh, well ... next week then!

[apad] 06/10/2016 13:50

The rns is all about the vibes on the chinese difficulties. If these are resolved then there might be some Value.
Personally, I'm running out of interest.
apad

[meijiman] 06/10/2016 13:32

Well there should be some benefits from rationalising what they have and getting it optimised. Then they can hopefully suggest there are some glimmers of demand picking up. One of the issues is that the company cannot be taken over due to the big shareholder. They don't tend to use the paper. So its less of an issue for them that share price goes nowhere for years.

[aleman] 06/10/2016 13:10

The last 7 years have seen the interim trading statement in the first week of October, so it is quite likely to be tomorrow. Hopefully, the company will see stability and some signs of improving conditions and reiterate a small profit in store for this year. Komatsu seems to be growing again but Caterpillar has not got there yet, even though seeing better sales to Asia. It would be nice to hear something positive about Asia in TCN's update, even if Europe and America are still weak.

[apad] 06/10/2016 12:13

rns due this month.
apad

[meijiman] 06/10/2016 12:10

Appreciate your work aleman. Got to hope there is finally going to be some good news here-its been going nowhere for years.

[aleman] 06/10/2016 11:47

Big jump in hydraulic excavator use in China, accordinng to Komatsu on-board analytics.

[meijiman] 26/9/2016 09:11

Yes Caterpillar on the up. When it will impact TCN who knows -it should. This share has been going nowhere for so long -needs a change of management.

[aleman] 26/9/2016 08:44

Caterpillar sales still bad but turn positive in Asia.



Green shoots reported in enquiries.



This still seems consistent with my suggestion that Caterpillar sales might turn up later in H2, a few months behind Komatsu.

[aleman] 16/9/2016 13:43

Komatsu updated sales figures to August - they are not as detailed as one would like but I'd say it looks like mining sales are probably on the up overall. Shares perked up to a 13 month high on the news.