Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[blackbear] 17/1/2005 21:31

evo has been caught out doing naughtys many times..

[blackbear] 17/1/2005 21:29

evo has been caught out doing naughtys many times..

[ards] 17/1/2005 21:00

very hard to read these trades. could be mm trick to think there is a floor then tree shake over next few days. I have been caught before. still if time period a few months should be ok as pe of 7-8 too low for what is still a profitable company which pays a divi and good growth prospects. may bounce of 40day ma. RSI around 10 suggesting this may be the case. Interesting the evo note advised sell and I could not really understand why. I note that evo is also a mm for TRB and they were probably aware that morley was looking to exit. Their sell note was therefore code for those in the know.

[hybrasil] 17/1/2005 08:56

desert fox
You took me up completely wrongly.
After all I want to invest in this company but not at the current share price. I thought I made that clear
4oooo odd of sales so far today but the price has remained firm.
EDIT

Nearly 250 k traded now 2.55 pm price still firm at 118 p bid. I find it hard to see it staying there but I may be wrong

[ards] 16/1/2005 23:01

just noticed that boa and mirabund have bought in recently. i think they took out morley but still morley overhang. sometimes when institutions rearrange themselves can be good opportunity.

[desert_fox] 15/1/2005 12:27

Wow! Thanks for reassuring us all. Please do a little bit more homework if you want to be taken seriously.
_______________________________________________________________________________
hybrasil - 15 Jan'05 - 08:54 - 80 of 80


"but I dont think the company is going under"

[hybrasil] 15/1/2005 08:54

It is not looking great- thats for sure- but I dont think the company is going under- I am encouraged by the earlier posters on this thread from some employee but I am reconsidering my buy in price. If it fell so decisively on such tiny volume what happens if a real seller comes out. 90/95 p sounds a good starting point and I'll buy over a couple of weeks. I never worry if I dont get the exact bottom. Equally I hope to be a shareholder by the end of next week

[blackbear] 14/1/2005 22:20

thanx chap ,. some things to think about.

[chap1889] 14/1/2005 21:46

Taking the company private would make a lot of sense, but the gearing would be frightening at that level so it's probably not an option. The liekly option for me is an outside offer, but that would mean someone getting to grips with the group structure - not an easy task.
As for director's holdings, the exec directors already hold quite a lot - not just Pitman at 25% or so, but also Lawton and Martin. Those two also have a lot of outstanding options. Interestingly, some of the options are due for exercise in 2005 ... at around the £2-3 mark I think.

[fncb001] 14/1/2005 16:35

For someone with his resources, if the price grossly undervalues the company then anything less than 100% would seem too little.

If there is such a lack of understanding from investors about Tribal, wouldn't taking this company private be a sensible choice? Alternatively, how do they correct this lack of understanding?

I'd appreciate your thoughts.

[blackbear] 14/1/2005 16:25

This is a big director holding.from 6 months ago

Following this purchase, Henry Pitman's aggregate beneficial holding of ordinary
shares of the Company amounts to 11,620,000 ordinary shares of which 1,200,000
are held by his wife and a further 811,760 ordinary shares are held by the
trustees of the Henry Pitman 2001 Accumulation and Maintenance Trust.

[fncb001] 14/1/2005 16:22

As shareholders, has anyone emailed Tribal to ask if they feel the current share place reflects a fair valuation?

I did and was told everyone at Tribal was 'very disappointed' by the price.

If this indicated a perceived undervaluation then I go back to the question asked above - WHY ARE THE DIRECTORS NOT BUYING? I'd be interested to know if anyone gets a response to that question.

[blackbear] 14/1/2005 15:54

Fair enough hybrasil , i would not think it will fall much further , i am very interested now in TRB , i use various ways of to put a value on a company , then wait for strength to appear in the price and use charts to put a stop loss in place.

I will wait for a reverse in share price say 3 up days in 5 to confirm a possible reversal trend , since the merry highs of 380p there has only been just 2 instances where i could have seen a possible reversal at 200p and 160p , third time could be the one.

The recent falls are probably due to a smaller overhang from these guys below , this slow but consistant dripping price reminds me of FWY , institutions sold out at 30-40p in the end days , now 150p


30 December 2004


Tribal Group plc
("the Company")



Tribal Group plc ("the Company") was today notified that as at the 24th December
2004 Morley Fund Management Limited (a Subsidiary of Aviva plc) and Aviva plc no
longer have a notifiable interest in the ordinary shares of the company.

[hybrasil] 14/1/2005 15:40

Blackbear
I normally do do it myself but when I invest outside my core competence (Assets.assets.assets) I take advice. Do you think they are going to fall further?

[blackbear] 14/1/2005 14:47

hybrasil , sack your broker , you look like someone with a few cells , doing it yourself is always the best idea in the end , learn the easy way it wont take you long.

[chap1889] 14/1/2005 13:39

DF - Funnily enough I had the exact same thought earlier this week with the last unexplained drop. TRB never struck me as the sort of company to be hit with shorting, but that would help explain these more recent falls. If shorting is going on, it is hopefully only a matter of time before they hit the bottom and those left with the shares they have picked up at a (currently IMO large)discount start to go long. As for picking the bottom though, I've already tried twice and failed!
Wonder if the election will have any impact on this share?

[hybrasil] 14/1/2005 13:35

Desert Fox
My research consistd largely of getting my by broker to look at it. They sent me all the baird (bard?) notes. These started saying buy at £3.30!!!

Now they think on a further price fall that there could be value there.
My brokers attitude was wait


The company has done a great deal and I have no doubt but that the directors will be very disappoined in the share price.

Unfortunately not disappointed enough however to buy shares.

We all see to agree that it will be value a bit lower down

[desert_fox] 14/1/2005 13:11

Chap1889,

I think we have similar views on this one. I wasnt going to buy any more of these, but with the recent fall, the risk/reward curve has shifted and will try to top up when I think we have reached the bottom, wherever that may be. I wonder if there is any concerted shorting going on, because the fall in the share price defies logic based upon fundamentals and I am not aware of any leakeages on underlying bad news from within the company.

[chap1889] 14/1/2005 11:51

DF - they had no choice but to put the aborted Mercury contract costs and the costs for the one they got through the P&L. Lawton had enough explaining to do to the institutions without adding that to the list. What they haven't put through are £500k employee costs (the EBT), which is frankly just remuneration in another form.
Agree with all you say on your post 64. Ultimately though people just do not understand what tribal do and until they get some sensible support the share price will continue to fall through to the results. All IMHO obviously.
All the news is out there. No further news is in the pipeline = nothing can be done to reverse the trend in the short term.
I obviously have my pessimistic hat on today. Everything I hear from within the company though is up up up - winning new and larger contracts all the time and continuing to be extremely cash generative. The acquisitions have stopped and we should see some decent organic growth now. Until then, it's still a question of how far it will drop before going back up IMHO.

[chap1889] 14/1/2005 11:40

I'm far from ramping this company - certainly not one of my better choices! There's a lot wrong with it and this is a bit like a run on the bank. As I said above, it could be 80p or 180p after the March results come out in July. 100p would be a good buy in point, but I thought the same at 140p. There isn't likely to be any news from the company (good or bad) for a long time now. That means there is nothing that I can see likely to stop the fall, so if the selling trend continues through that period it could well hit 80p before finding support. Ah well, it's only a paper loss unless I'm ever forced to sell (or it gets taken private / acquired - very attractive at this low price) and I'm happy to wait for a return. If it doesn't start to come good in 2005 though, it could well be a very long hibernation!

[desert_fox] 14/1/2005 11:27

hybrasil,

I would be interest to learn more about your valuation philosphy of this company. It is trading at a massive discount to its peers in the public sector support services sector and this years profits (ignoring the non-cash effect of the goodwill write off)are still not bad considering that I believe the Board has been very prudent in charging Mercury's set up costs to the P&L.

[desert_fox] 14/1/2005 11:23

hybrasil,

With regard to Mercury I think you will find that much of the non-recurring cost write off in the last few sets of accounts relates to the set up costs that were incurred during the delay in signing the contract. Many of these costs would have been incurred anyway, so my analysis of the situation is that Mercury will be more profitable in the early stages that the Board has previously indicated. In effect, there is a delay between the matching of income to costs. In addition, the quoted contract value was the GUARANTEED minimum contract value. This reduces much of the risk of this business since the focus is now on cost control of delivery rather than chasing revenue. In addition, Mercury is free to add volume to this guaranteed sum and has the attraction of being able to charge the full NHS national tariff from a cost base, which has already been underwritten from the main contract. In other words, it can deliver additional income at a low rate of marginal cost.

[hybrasil] 14/1/2005 09:51

chap1889 Dont get me wrong I like the company. I just think at current levels they are a clear sell as I believe they will fall to the £1 region. At that level as I have said I am a buyer