Triad Share Discussion Threads

[arthur_lame_stocks] 01/7/2024 08:23

Who wrote that for you sunshine?

[sunshine today] 01/7/2024 08:16

Research.


As you'd find in almost any statistics textbook, the normal curve assumes that that close to two-thirds of a population – in this case, employees – is clustered around the average. Only a very small percentage (2% to 5%) of employees are top performers meaningfully above (1-2 standard deviations) the average.

An assumption that has often accompanied this distribution is that very top performers account for a small portion of the organizational output, and the key is to find more top performers and raise the overall average output. This seems logical, and in fact, many of our selection and development programs are aimed at raising the overall average level. However, evidence suggests a much different – and potentially sobering – story.

Examining the peer-reviewed research reveals data collected on hundreds of thousands of employees across a diversity of performance domains and industries. This data suggests performance does not form a “normal distribution” (as described above) but rather a “Pareto” type of distribution, wherein most people don’t produce very much output at all, and only a small number of people produce a significant proportion of the overall output.

In fact, the data suggests that the top 1% of workers produce 10% of the output, or 10 times what we have assumed to this point, while the top 5% produces a whopping 26% of the output.

In other words, it seems more a fact that a surprisingly precious few are driving far, far more output than we've ever considered.



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Triad staff are everything, they are the business : Full Stop.

Those staff have been hand picked , with an extremely high bar. They are the elite of the software consulting sector. They are not the top paid within the industry. They work in teams and as a team. Triad has 35 years of experience of hiring staff, in house, developing its own software, to find the cream, plus,they also benefit from having an FD who runs the Department, using his own vast experience.

The staff get to work on the best projects, often for the greater good, that as share holders, we can be very proud of. !



Proof of that today is beginning to emerge in the form of contract wins and peer reviewed industry awards.

The end result after 6 full years of transformation of this company has arrived.

Shareholders will know the numbers at the next set of interims,( in terms of profits.)

Last week’s Chairmans outlook statement said as much, ( without the numbers ).

[netcurtains] 01/7/2024 08:02

As a coder....

[arthur_lame_stocks] 01/7/2024 08:00

They win contracts from Westminster and none of them have ever gone wrong? Depends on your perspective I suppose.

[netcurtains] 01/7/2024 07:19

The reason for the rapid growth in share price has been the strategy of moving from contract programmers to permanent programmers.
The big advantage of permanent programmers to the end employer (eg the government) is that they get what they paid for.
With contractors they could end up with anyone.

This strategy has lead to triad RECENTLY winning a significant number of NEW LARGE contracts.
The shareholders are rightly excited in anticipation of seeing these contracts appear in next years profit and loss and balance sheets.

Once traid get a name for being a "class act" contracts will start to flood in......
Its all about PROVABLE quality - too many IT projects have gone horribly wrong (eg Horizon) - I cant think of a single triad contract that has gone pear shaped....

[arthur_lame_stocks] 01/7/2024 07:05

I think you're possibly cherry picking apox. The price may well have increased by a huge multiple over that period but as far as I can work out it hasn't been matched in profit or dividend returns.

[apox123] 30/6/2024 20:51

Many people have pointed out that the words in the annual report don't match the numbers. Reviewing previous annual reports is a good way to assess management's integrity and ensure that their statements align with actual outcomes.

Consider these statements from the Chairman in the 2015 annual report(does it sound familiar?):

“The Group's results for the financial year ended 31 March 2015 demonstrate the significant progress made in all areas of the business, and represent our strongest performance for over 10 years…”

The profit after tax for 2015 was £0.35m. However, this was followed by a significant increase in 2016, with profit after tax reaching £1.21m, as per the annual report. This represents a threefold increase in profits within a year.

The stock has performed exceptionally well over the years, illustrating the benefits of long-term investment. Despite numerous challenges, such as the legal battle with a previous shareholder, the COVID-19 pandemic, and governmental uncertainties, the stock has shown remarkable resilience. Since 2012, it has been a 50 bagger. Anyone who has held onto the stock for this period has been richly rewarded.

[bones] 29/6/2024 10:27

Whichever it is, net, the important thing is they maintain and don’t dilute top quality service and staff. I think they know that is their hard won USP.

[netcurtains] 29/6/2024 07:36

I'm trying to work out if it is better for shareholders if Triad went for profits of £3m/£4m this year
OR
carried on with growth (increasing staff numbers).....

I'm inclined more towards growth than profits but I can see it either way.

[1maxreward] 28/6/2024 15:23

Copied from LinkedIn mentioning details about a 5 year contract and partnership. Best thing about working at Department for Energy Security and Net Zero? The bins! Man, these guys walk the walk!Thrilled to have the opportunity to be working with the brilliant Data Strategy and Governance team here to shape their data strategy for the next 5 years. Working with friends at Triad Group Plc to help the department set the ambition and plan to supercharge their ability to make data work for them. Exciting times!https://www.linkedin.com/mwlite/profile/in/katharine-purser/recent-activity

[sunshine today] 28/6/2024 13:27

Digital Outcomes and Specialists is a government framework with a low barrier of entry in which tenders are aimed at commissioning digital teams or individuals to complement public sector internal teams in delivering agile digital services.

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The Government Spend from just this one platform on Triads services has hit £3M for the first five months of the year,( up to the end of May.)

If it was to continue at that pace ,you’re talking a run rate of £7M a year.


Source Advice Cloud

Knowledge Hub.

[sunshine today] 28/6/2024 12:39

Apox123

On that point may i offer my view.

The Government wants value for money to enable it to slash costs for services and lower the civil service pay roll.

They want the public to have use of fantastic government IT services.

That requires real talent (thats is very, very short supply,).

Poor coding resulted in the Horizon scandal.

In Oct this year the government stops buying IT services just on PRICE.

They start buying on the value ( it’s here Triad can excel ).

They have solutions and can partner with other vendors.

They have massive expertise that others do not. ( awards and case studies ).

The police for instance is extremely specialised, as is, other secret work Triad delivers .

The private sector comes with standard issues inc late payments.

[apox123] 28/6/2024 11:57

These are some of Triad’s private clients.

Volkswagen
BCA
Footanstey
Westcoast
RES (Renewable Energy Systems)
Dalcour Maclaren
Lightsource BP

It would be great if the company could continue focusing more on growing their private portfolio. This would help diversify their revenue streams and make them less dependent on government contracts.

[sunshine today] 28/6/2024 09:08

“I believe that the recent excellent performance in the share price is further proof that our status as a quoted company (Main Market, Premium Segment) is of great value to the Company, combined with the fact that we continue to be an SME and have substantial headroom for further expansion within the SME category”

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The new procurement act comes into force in October, that favours SME”S over the larger players in the sector.

Those larger players inc the most direct listed competition for Triad, MADE TECH and TPX IMPACT.

The very large companies within the sector are also suffering,being pushed out ,mainly for their previous sins of stitching up the Government with long term liabilities to service their software offerings, not to mention general overpricing, and underdelivering.

[sunshine today] 28/6/2024 08:57

RNS Number : 9982F
Triad Group Plc
07 March 2024

Legal Entity Identifier (LEI) No. 213800MDNBFVEQEN1G84

Triad Group Plc

Trading Update

In my overview of results dated 20th December 2023, I said "I personally have never felt so confident and enthusiastic about the state and prospects of the Company for more than 20 years" and "I believe that we are at the beginning of a period of increasing major success and growth". I am delighted to confirm that both these statements are proving to be more than amply justified.

Since 20th December, we have continued to win major and long-term pieces of new business. We returned to profit in November and, apart from the Christmas/New Year holiday period, have been on a strongly rising trajectory ever since. Cash flow, as normal, is following closely behind the profit trend. We have been nominated for more national awards. Our recruitment process is operating at full steam ahead with great success. I should point out that the costs of setting up the new projects and hiring will be absorbed in the fourth quarter; however, this will enable us to get off to a flying start for our new financial year beginning in April. I shall provide a much more extensive account of developments in my statement accompanying the full year results.

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26/06/2024 Report and accounts


Outlook

In my Trading Statement dated 7th March 2024, I indicated that we should expect "a flying start for our new financial year beginning in April". I can now confirm that our progress since the year end has shown that my words have turned out to be a very substantial understatement. A transformation of our results is now being achieved in the current financial year.

We are continuing to recruit at pace and of the highest quality. Our cash flow is very strong, and we are bidding for major further lines of business. Our orderbook is also extremely healthy and we are already aiming up to two years ahead in our efforts to win new major contracts. Further detail follows in the Managing Director's statement below.

I believe that the recent excellent performance in the share price is further proof that our status as a quoted company (Main Market, Premium Segment) is of great value to the Company, combined with the fact that we continue to be an SME and have substantial headroom for further expansion within the SME category

[arthur_lame_stocks] 28/6/2024 04:40

Massively overvalued.

[sunshine today] 27/6/2024 17:40

For Triad to grow rapidly (and produce a handsome ongoing income for investors), shareholders require increasing revenues , combined with substantial gross, and net margins.

One clue to this can be found in yesterday’s results, on the gross margin side of the equation.

These margins were 14.9% at the half year, 20.1% across the full year.

Thus the gross margin in the SECOND half jumped to 25.3%. !!

Those margins increased to 25.3% DESPITE start up costs of the new contracts, being expensed in the second half of the last reporting year. ( 2023 - 2024 ).

If one reads the trading updates back to the interims, it is clear, that even in the second half (where margins jumped to 25.3%) October, and December were a washout. That left just 4 months to produce that result. Of those 4 months 2 months of gross margin may have been required to cover any loss in the months of October and December. That would leave just two months of perhaps 40% to 60% gross margin to produce an overall 25.3% gross margin for the 6 months.


I personally believe one of the reasons the chairman is so upbeat about current trading is a combination of a staggering improvement in revenues, we are about to witness in the first half of this financial year, plus gross margin expansion towards the 40% - 50% sector average, combined with a tight control central overheads

[apox123] 27/6/2024 15:11

From yesterday annual report (2024)

"...During the year, the Lloyds invoicing facility was deemed to be not appropriate to support the business model and was terminated. Due to the robust cash flow forecasts, the Directors do not believe a replacement facility is required in the foreseeable future. The facility was not utilised during the year..."

Zero debt. The costs for staff hiring and contract setup were covered using cash reserves rather than borrowed funds.

Patience is needed.

[apox123] 27/6/2024 14:56

I always like to consider the downside when buying a stock.

Triad received the following amounts from the government last year:

G-Cloud spending (May 2023 - May 2024): £2.23 million
DOS spending (May 2023 - May 2024): £4.84 million
Total spend last year: £7.07 million

According to the managers, this has been the best 20 years in the company's history. Therefore, even if Triad earnings matches last year's government spending on the above, it will mean an additional £7.07 million on top of the recently awarded £25 million.

Looking at previous years' earnings, the best year of profit for Triad was 2017, with £1.75 million (profit after tax). If the managers are correct and this is indeed the best period in the company's history, I would expect long-term profits to exceed £1.75 million. This would put the company at a PE ratio of 27, which is lower than most other IT companies in the industry.

Additionally, as Sunshine mentioned, approximately 20% of contracts are through the private sector.

The business model anticipates that contract spending (setup and staff hiring) occurs before profits are achieved. The business is very capital-light, with ongoing staff salaries being the primary cost. Thus, there shouldn't be too many additional expenses moving forward, leading mainly to an increase in profits and cash reserves.

This information should hopefully provide some downside protection for the stock.

[1maxreward] 27/6/2024 12:15

Decent share price recovery, other people can see value and a big return on their money next year. Might've topped up a bit myself.

[sunshine today] 27/6/2024 06:36

Apox123

Well done with your research.

Triad were awarded just £3.3M in the public sector large order category, in the year 2022 - 2023 yet total revenues came in at £14M.

The private sector accounted for around 20% of revenues in both 2022- 2023 and 2023 - 2024.

In essence the large public sector contracts of £25M awarded over the last few months, don't reflect the full picture, by a mile.

Bread and butter smaller workflows are delivered on a monthly basis inc DOS and G Cloud from the uk Government. This spend can be publicly tracked, its substantial.

To sum up, the large contracts provide the bedrock for fast growth.

Help that helps you with your sums.

[1maxreward] 27/6/2024 03:29

They've also been working with Stratis and the STRAX coin and stable coin for the UK. No solid details on the contract they have though.

[sunshine today] 26/6/2024 12:39



I note this company suffered a sell off on the half year results, (that was followed by a very substantial rise.)

Those that believe this company is expensive, might like to look at the progress thats been made, I refer you to Triads : Annual Report and Accounts, published today.

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From the Chairman, Outlook.


“In my Trading Statement dated 7th March 2024, I indicated that we should expect "a flying start for our new financial year beginning in April". I can now confirm that our progress since the year end has shown that my words have turned out to be a very substantial understatement. A transformation of our results is now being achieved in the current financial year”

Note the use of the word SINCE year end.

“I can now confirm that our progress since the year end has shown that my words have turned out to be a very substantial understatement.̶1;



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Note 15

Trade Receivables £2.734 M: Up from £2.006M last year.

Note 17

Trade Payables £419,000: Down from £666,000 last year.


This shows income is going up at pace ( no bad debts ) and a big reduction in trade payables.




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Since year end, the office tenant that sub let part of one of Triads offices has settled to leave early, no doubt, on advantages terms for Triad.

The other office Triad rents appears to be approaching the end of its lease.



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Staff consultant numbers jumped to 116 by year end and are now over 130 and growing at a rapid pace, as per vacancies on the Triad Home page.