Travis Perkins Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 11/10/2012 16:35

The brokers are largely with you here;

2012 2013
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Panmure Gordon
10-10-12 BUY 311.00 95.00 25.00 320.00 97.80 30.00
ING Financial Markets [R]
09-10-12 HOLD 95.38 31.79 105.70 35.22
Davy Stockbrokers
08-10-12 None 93.50 24.00 98.50 28.00
Peel Hunt
08-10-12 HOLD 309.97 96.95 25.00 363.63 112.23 32.00
Goodbody Stockbrokers
08-10-12 BUY 93.17 24.00 105.29 30.00
Shore Capital
05-10-12 BUY 310.10 94.40 24.00 344.60 107.00 27.00
Numis Securities Ltd
03-10-12 HOLD


When it comes down to it , it is ultimately all a gamble , in the absence of insider info.
A Eurocrash may be priced in to the market but I am not so sure .If there is one thing I hate more than watching something I have sold drift up further , it is watching something I didn't sell drifting down .

[jeffian] 11/10/2012 15:36

Well done. I agree with you about market stability. I've been holding a substantial element of cash for a while now in anticipation of a Eurozone-inspired wobble. It's hurt me in the short term as most of the things I'd earmarked have gone up substantially, but I'm sticking to my guns as I don't see how the Euro thing will pan out without a lot of pain along the way, whether the Southern states secede or they all soldier on indefinitely in the current Living Death.

[wad collector] 11/10/2012 15:17

I don't have a big holding and I am concerned about market stability - temporarily (I hope )turning a few of my holdings to cash.I agree safe in the long run.
I'm out at 1135 with a tidy profit.

[jeffian] 11/10/2012 13:09

I'm surprised you're so keen to exit these, wc. Currently on a PER around 11x, have traded well though the bottom of the building cycle and look poised to reap the rewards of any improvement in the depressed construction market. They've achieved continued expansion in difficult times by taking market share and they're also able to grow by bolt-on acquisitions. I can understand that there might no be much to tempt traders here but for investors, on fundamentals, they look a pretty solid hold to me. (Mind you, I didn't sell'em when they were over £20!)

[wad collector] 11/10/2012 08:44

Perky little rise this am to 1127 - I can feel exit time coming.

[wad collector] 06/9/2012 07:52

I would rather hold Shell at 5% today not tomorrow!
I think I will exit if todays sharp rise of 4% continues up a little more.

[jeffian] 06/8/2012 16:31

Remember this, though


"jeffian 22 Feb'12 - 10:06 - 417 of 422 edit

Aye, but did you see this bit?

"The Board's stated intention is to reduce the multiple by which dividends are covered by post tax earnings to between 2.5 times and 3.5 times over the medium term from the current cover of 4.7 times."

Potential to nearly double divi at today's eps, with scope for further growth going forward."

They clearly won't go there in a single jump but the maximum potential on those forecasts is nearer 3.75% than 2%. Not exactly 'high yield' but then not many quality companies are. That would be perfectly acceptable in today's low-interest rate environment with scope for further growth going forward.

[wad collector] 06/8/2012 15:56

Yield still looks unimpressive at less than 2% rising to about 2.6% even on the most optimistic forecasts for next yr.

Brokers seem more positive;



2012 2013
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Davy Stockbrokers
01-08-12 None 93.50 24.00 98.50 28.00
Peel Hunt
31-07-12 HOLD 309.97 96.95 25.00 363.63 112.23 32.00
ING Financial Markets [R]
31-07-12 HOLD 95.38 31.79 105.70 35.22
Shore Capital
27-07-12 BUY 310.10 94.40 24.00 344.60 107.00 27.00
Panmure Gordon
27-07-12 BUY 320.00 100.00 26.00 340.00 105.00 32.00
Goodbody Stockbrokers
18-07-12 BUY 93.17 24.00 105.29 30.00
Seymour Pierce
02-07-12 BUY 324.90 98.00 355.00 107.10

[jeffian] 26/7/2012 11:05

Very solid results today from TPK but particularly impressive when the GDP statistics* are showing construction significantly down. Imagine what they can do when things pick up again!



* mind you, I'm pretty sceptical about that. Employment up, VAT revenues up, tax take up......and we're supposed to be in the worst 'double-dip' ever? Something doesn't add up.

[wad collector] 30/4/2012 14:17

I just noticed your posting about the dividend cover - improves the taste.
I have a small holding here ; don't think I want to increase it yet , but a bit more weakness would be enticing.

[jeffian] 22/2/2012 10:20

Talking of dividends, TPK was one of several companies in my portfolio (which was built around a high div/low PER strategy) which seriously hacked me off by being quick to cut or waive dividends altogether when the credit crunch blew up in 2008. I suspected at the time that it was an over-reaction, and history suggests I was right.

................2006....2007.....2008.....2009.....2010

DPS.............27.67....31.37...35.39......-......5.00
Reported EPS....107.83...119.73...67.87...86.20...67.20

[jeffian] 22/2/2012 10:06

Aye, but did you see this bit?

"The Board's stated intention is to reduce the multiple by which dividends are covered by post tax earnings to between 2.5 times and 3.5 times over the medium term from the current cover of 4.7 times."

Potential to nearly double divi at today's eps, with scope for further growth going forward.

Great company; great results.

[wad collector] 22/2/2012 09:04

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

* Group revenue up 52% at GBP4,779m, up 6% on a
like-for-like basis
* Adjusted profit before tax up 37% to GBP297m

* Adjusted EPS up 21% to 93.1p

* Proforma adjusted group operating margin maintained at 6.6%



* Net debt reduced by GBP191m to GBP583m with adjusted
net debt to EBITDA of 1.3x (note 15)

* Total dividend per share up by 33% to 20p, including
a final dividend of 13.5p


A 33% dividend increase is impressive until you recall that it only takes the yield to about 1.8%.Better make this a capital share then...

[wad collector] 15/2/2012 13:40

This board is humming.

2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Panmure Gordon
14-02-12 BUY 296.00 88.70 19.90 340.00 102.00 25.00
Davy Stockbrokers
13-02-12 None 87.00 20.00 91.00 22.50
ING Financial Markets
09-02-12 HOLD 85.18 21.30 95.38 31.79
Peel Hunt
09-02-12 HOLD 284.99 87.32 20.00 300.05 91.37 25.00
SG Securities
06-02-12 HOLD 80.89 19.50 85.23 27.00
Shore Capital
03-02-12 BUY 287.20 87.40 25.00 317.10 98.40 29.50
Goodbody Stockbrokers
26-01-12 ADD 90.68 20.00 85.90 22.00
Seymour Pierce
24-01-12 BUY 292.50

[wad collector] 23/11/2011 10:00

420p? Errr.. sounds like a carefully researched conclusion from an obvious expert.
Not sure it is breaking out either.I think it is just bumbling along, ; won't start to make much progress until the recession in the building trade really starts to disappear.

[nigel123] 11/11/2011 16:14

lol, now now max, it and many others.

[maximillian1] 10/11/2011 12:27

420p soon....thats were it is going..

[maximillian1] 10/11/2011 12:26

420p soon....thats were it is going..

[nigel123] 26/10/2011 13:38

C.R. Where do u see this going, with WOS also making significant recent gains?

[cockneyrebel] 26/10/2011 13:22

Making new recent highs today.

CR

[wad collector] 24/10/2011 11:55

This is the nearest I get to housebuilding shares, except a few Bovis.Has been a good recent run here ; I can't see it being back at a tenner soon.

[cockneyrebel] 24/10/2011 10:13

A breakout through the recent high here looks imminent imo.

CR