Travis Perkins Share Discussion Threads

[weemonkey] 17/10/2008 07:51

this mob will survive

price may go lower but will survive.

dominant market position should ensure that.

[manners2] 16/10/2008 11:57

imo - first point is right - were trading at silly levels last spring; 2nd point - well rememeber the markets in acting 18 months in advance so I think these prices are correct and perhaps should be lower - if no business in future then stock price is justified!

[sportbilly1976] 16/10/2008 11:53

yet another stock to have lost over 90% of its value in under 18 months here then.....

it either shows what silly levels stocks were trading at last spring, or that there are a vest number of stocks which are currently trading at well below fair value.

[manners2] 16/10/2008 11:42

in my totally honest opinion I don't think this stock will be a buy for a t least 3 years.....at any level.....on the premise that fund can be used better elsewhere than in a non-divy paying stock which be struggling to make any margins and will only be alive, if your inside information is correct.....maybe a bit gloomy a view though!!?? ha

[manners2] 16/10/2008 11:42

in my totally honest opinion I don't think this stock will be a buy for a t least 3 years.....at any level.....on the premise that fund can be used better elsewhere than in a non-divy paying stock which be struggling to make any margins and will only be alive, if your inside information is correct.....maybe a bit gloomy a view though!!?? ha

[maximillian1] 16/10/2008 11:38

What price do you think will be a buy?

[manners2] 16/10/2008 11:36

'boys in dark glasses'??

[maximillian1] 16/10/2008 11:30

So that would give the boys in dark glasses an upside of £5 think about it

[maximillian1] 16/10/2008 11:28

You pick one..200 down on a day seems enough blood..or they will kill the goose that lays the golden eggs..after all when it rallys ,it can move 200 up in no time,so one would assume they will want to keep this bouncing long and short!!

[manners2] 16/10/2008 11:23

hi - do you think that 2.80 will be a very relevent level then?

[maximillian1] 16/10/2008 11:07

1995 price £280

[maximillian1] 16/10/2008 11:05

Crystal ball telling me 280

[manners2] 16/10/2008 10:53

ha! sure ok thanks

[maximillian1] 16/10/2008 10:31

Oh ....for a crystal ball,i like bottoms large and small

[manners2] 16/10/2008 09:51

still even with loan in place - surely there will be a direct impact on the buiness from plunging property prices falling demand for housebuilders?? + technically think it looks in trouble

[maximillian1] 16/10/2008 09:38

They secured it before this lot started..have inside info from a friend who works there..only by chance or it could be another bdev situation.

[manners2] 16/10/2008 09:35

hi max - could you possibly tell me a bit more about the loan facility?
markets I feel are jittery because we are about to fall into deep recession, and I expect us to test lows of '02....property and housing wont recover for years so dont see any immediate way back for travis??

[maximillian1] 16/10/2008 09:23

jittery markets ..time to buy..there loan facility is secured!

[manners2] 16/10/2008 09:23

cant see how this stock will have any suppost whatsoever above £4 - clear technical breakaway gap this morning on the bad news - in thses conditions doubt will have ability to close gap and risks very much to the downside - would be short......any thoughts??

[tsmith2] 16/10/2008 08:58

very jittery markets.

expect it to recover to £3.9-4.2 by end of play

[safari7] 16/10/2008 08:49

Is the 30% drop just due to shorters or what - ??

[tsmith2] 16/10/2008 08:42

highly oversold. bought in

Travis Perkins (HOLD) - 3Q08 IMS
TPK.L 481p (Target Price 450p) Market cap: £592m
Given the current state of the UK house building market, it would have been optimistic in the extreme to expect much good news from Travis Perkins in the third quarter. The only questions were how bad would it be and was the outlook so bad that debt covenants were soon to breached. The answers are that things are trading is worse than expected but current debt covenants appear to be secure for the time being at least.

In the merchanting business sales in the first 9 months were up by 3.1% but down by 1.2% on a like for like basis. This was inline but the last two months has seen a marked decline with like for like sales down 10%. Wickes 9M08 like for like sales were down by 2.6% which was better than we had expected but the gross margin was down. The company has warned that profits will come in at the low end of analysts expectations and we consequently cut our pre-tax estimate from £232m to £217m and EPS from 130.9p to 122.5p. The final dividend will be passed.

Cash flow continues to be OK due to working capital gains and property sales but capital expenditure will be cut drastically for the rest of this year and next The company is focussing on reducing net debt. We do not believe it will breach its debt covenants.

The shares have been battered in recent months, underperforming the market by 45% in the past year. However, Travis Perkins is a well-run company and is performing ahead of its peers in this market. We believe that much of the bad news is already in the price.

The balance sheet is reasonably secure, although it still has £911m of net debt relating to the Wickes acquisition. Forecast interest cover is 4.4 times and net debt/ EBITDA is 2.7x. On our revised EPS numbers, the shares are trading on around 3.9x FY2008 earnings.

[safari7] 16/10/2008 08:38

Looks way oversold. May bounce back to 400+