Travis Perkins Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 23/1/2009 19:40

Hi Willie, don't worry, I ain't long TPK, I'd be short if anything.

CR

[williemanjaro] 23/1/2009 18:47

Yes I understand that-still JUG--have to say that Seccombes and Castle blew Perkins prices out of the water thanks to Perkins Stock market listing and the rush for profit.
Now if only Screwfix sold Timber,sand & Cement---they`d shut Perkins for good--:O)

[jugears] 23/1/2009 18:18

Thats because most customers collect on the way to a job in the morning.

[cockneyrebel] 23/1/2009 16:01

Above story is a re-hash from an old story - I spoke to the FD - no news like that to be announced I'm told.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 23/1/2009 14:45

Shareprice seems very weak too.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 23/1/2009 13:59

Can any of you informed posters shed some light on this, I've not seen a warning RNS yet



"Travis Perkins issues profits warning amid reports of falling sales"

CR

[jugears] 23/1/2009 00:27

I am supplier to travis perkins & they also purchase from me, All the branches that have I spoken to say they are very buisey,This may be because they are now offering customers a better price, I beleive that a REP now goes out to a customers site & quotes a better price if they get the whole package.

[nigel123] 21/1/2009 19:21

hi max

touched 330 today,you in yet?

[maximillian1] 08/1/2009 20:08

Hi all


tpk looking very good,,hope to buy soon again at 330 ..first target 430..then 475 then top at 570 short till then

[jugears] 12/12/2008 17:00

NO I doubt it

[romi2nikki1] 28/11/2008 16:14

lowrdr

Are your comments based upon an authorative survey? One things for certain, small builders will not be able to use BnQ Trade Depots for much longer.

[topdealer2] 25/11/2008 17:01

interesting figures from Topps Tiles...................wonder how Tilegiant is fairing since being taken over by Travis???

[jeffian] 18/11/2008 11:33

Wolseley (WOS) interims today - redundancies + 200 UK branch closures - a pointer for TPK or an opportunity? Discuss!

[jugears] 17/11/2008 21:49

Can't understand why this share is being knocked so much, Tavis perkins sell mainly to the smaller builder,who still seem fairly buisy, Most large House builders buy dircect from the manufacturer rather than the middle man,so can not see why this should have such an effect on travis perkins share price.

[clompie] 03/11/2008 08:50

But had it drunk the coffee?

mb

[sleepy] 31/10/2008 01:39

Which one is that, cashbunny?

[cashbunny] 31/10/2008 00:06

at my local TP branch they found a dead rat in the back of the coffee machine.

[tsmith2] 17/10/2008 11:56

At £4.81 the shares were trading at 3.9 time 2008 EPS

at 2.6 they are at just over 2 times earnings - seems like an AWFUL lot of bad news is priced in already (if it hadnt been at £4.81!!).


Travis Perkins (HOLD) - 3Q08 IMS
TPK.L 481p (Target Price 450p) Market cap: £592m
Given the current state of the UK house building market, it would have been optimistic in the extreme to expect much good news from Travis Perkins in the third quarter. The only questions were how bad would it be and was the outlook so bad that debt covenants were soon to breached. The answers are that things are trading is worse than expected but current debt covenants appear to be secure for the time being at least.

In the merchanting business sales in the first 9 months were up by 3.1% but down by 1.2% on a like for like basis. This was inline but the last two months has seen a marked decline with like for like sales down 10%. Wickes 9M08 like for like sales were down by 2.6% which was better than we had expected but the gross margin was down. The company has warned that profits will come in at the low end of analysts expectations and we consequently cut our pre-tax estimate from £232m to £217m and EPS from 130.9p to 122.5p. The final dividend will be passed.

Cash flow continues to be OK due to working capital gains and property sales but capital expenditure will be cut drastically for the rest of this year and next The company is focussing on reducing net debt. We do not believe it will breach its debt covenants.

The shares have been battered in recent months, underperforming the market by 45% in the past year. However, Travis Perkins is a well-run company and is performing ahead of its peers in this market. We believe that much of the bad news is already in the price.

The balance sheet is reasonably secure, although it still has £911m of net debt relating to the Wickes acquisition. Forecast interest cover is 4.4 times and net debt/ EBITDA is 2.7x. On our revised EPS numbers, the shares are trading on around 3.9x FY2008 earnings. At this level they are hardly expensive although there is clearly some doubt over the outlook for 2009 too. We retain our HOLD stance and move our target price to 450p (from 550p).

[manners2] 17/10/2008 10:55

and you bud

[maximillian1] 17/10/2008 10:50

Stop in place ..no gamble ..do not hold for long periods..the market will have this up and down a few times yet..money to be made in these swings.. oversold at the moment...agree with all the above ..except £1 ..not till after the next profit warning..US election should just about keep things bubbling for a bit longer. Life is a gamble and all those that wait for a certainty miss the boat!!

Good Luck as we all need a little of that.

[manners2] 17/10/2008 10:39

maximillian1 - I am really surprised you have done that - the property market will be on knees for 5 years....as was the case after the japanese and nordic banking crisis which are extremely similar to ours....this being the case travis perkins will be under pressure and not a fashionable stock.....it maybe secured but it will probably not pay a dividend during this time, UNATTRACTIVE to investors.....I just dont understand why people always buck the clear facts and trend!! what stop this share trading at £1 or less for the next 5 years!??

It certainly will not trade above 4.00 for a long period of time

[maximillian1] 17/10/2008 10:31

Have just bought at 270....470..before the final profit warning in the next statment £2.not to be sniffed at...stop on place.just in case

[maximillian1] 17/10/2008 10:25

I say again they have a £1 billion secured banking facility ,that can not be withdrawn!!!