Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[hydrus] 07/9/2016 08:56

Absolutely Michael - probably the consequence of the negative articles over the last few months. The company is not being rated in the market as a high quality growth company. I suspect it will require a year or two of high growth coupled with profit and cash generation before it becomes rated in that way. Obviously the question is whether TRAK can achieve that and any uncertainty will have a disproportionate effect on share price. The management record here is very good so that should give holders some confidence.

[michaelmouse] 07/9/2016 08:45

I'd agree that we need some clarity about profitability in the first half of this year. Hopefully resolved at the AGM.

However, let's say they miss the 17p EPS end of year target and achieve EPS of 13.38p (quite a miss). That would still be 20% growth over the year, and the p/e ratio would be 14.5 (at the current 195p SP) which is still very cheap for a company producing 20% growth.

The fact is the company remains on target to achieve around 40% growth, supported by orders 37% higher (organic 27%).

That's a considerable margin of safety for a growth company.

[knowbodyyouno] 07/9/2016 08:43

Agreed Hydrus.

This share price always has been susceptible to wild swings - even with little volume.

However, what's encouraging is that the BOD's outlook for the year (overall) remains unchanged.

Long-term holder here and that remains unchanged.

Will top up when the dust settles a little.

GLA

[blondeamon] 07/9/2016 08:41

Look at the low volume and ratio of Buys/Sells.

MMs are having a field trip with PIs, grabbing everything in the cheap. Now is the time to buy not sell.

[knowbodyyouno] 07/9/2016 08:37

Agreed Hydrus.

This share price always has been susceptible to wild swings - even with little volume.

However, what's encouraging is that the BOD's outlook for the year (overall) remains unchanged.

Long-term holder here and that remains unchanged.

Will top up when the dust settles a little.

GLA

[hydrus] 07/9/2016 08:29

Michael - if they do achieve that full year then agreed will look very cheap

[mad foetus] 07/9/2016 08:28

I don't know anything about this company but am interested through my holding in RMMC. I can only say how refreshing it is for the board to publish a statement like this before an AGM rather than after, Price action looks absurd.

[hydrus] 07/9/2016 08:27

I think it's fallen simply because there is a profit warning:'Half year profitability is expected to be less than the first half of last year'

[michaelmouse] 07/9/2016 08:25

"A "satisfactory" opening paragraph just won't cut it now so am not surprised by the reaction"

Traders often read reports superficially and it could be why the share price dropped by 20% in the first few minutes (shares are highly illiquid).

Context is everything. It's "satisfactory" in the context of achieving an EPS figure of around 17p this year since trading is in line.

If they achieve that figure then that's more than 40% growth in EPS this year, that puts the p/e at just 11 (can't be many companies growing at 40% on p/e ratios in low double digits).

Looks good value to me, but DYOR.

[blondeamon] 07/9/2016 08:20

It seems to "cut it" for QTX which has multiple times our PE and only a meagre 6% growth in devices.

TRAK is a powerhorse, continuously adding new clients and devices and with good acquisitions increases market share.

We are the 4th largest fleet management provider right now and could be #3 by end of the year. Order uptake is 37% and last year was a really strong year so to be that much up on that is commendable.

Above all, I trust the board here. They always deliver and they will again.

In the meantime I just topped up massively at 190p, let the punters sell and chase this again later. If you know the company and liked it at 3£ and 2£ why wouldn't you absolutely fall in lovew with it now at 1.85£

[melody9999] 07/9/2016 08:19

fortunately the Board will have the chance to answer questions at the AGM today to set the record completely straight. cannot make it but would be grateful for anyone that does to feedback here.

[knowbodyyouno] 07/9/2016 08:19

Well luckily the vast majority of shares are held by longterm holders. Massive overreaction in my opinion. However, more detail needed from the BOD.

Back to 200p on google.

[salpara111] 07/9/2016 08:18

Well, it looks like I will be exiting with a large loss here.
I get the feeling that picking aim stocks is little better than going down to the casino.

[davr0s] 07/9/2016 08:16

My take is that the period of above expectations RNSs has passed for now and this was driving the price. A "satisfactory" opening paragraph just won't cut it now so am not surprised by the reaction

[melody9999] 07/9/2016 08:12

ridiculous price action. mm's are mugging weak holders.

[nfs] 07/9/2016 08:08

Surely the trading update says expectations unchanged,apart from the fx impact which is estimated at £0.5mI can't recall the extent of upfront set up costs for new devices,is it really that much? Still trying to understand the lower H1 2016 vs H1 2015 as it is referred to in a separate paragraph to the fx comment

[michaelmouse] 07/9/2016 08:06

Yes blondemon. Looking forward to the AGM video and my dividend on 13th September.

[blondeamon] 07/9/2016 08:06

Buy when there's blood on the street. Company increasing sales profits, devices yet price declines declines declines.

Peg less than 0.7

[knowbodyyouno] 07/9/2016 08:02

Brexit realities and we know that the nature of the business is that the second-half is uniformly stronger due to recurring revenues.

[gwr7] 07/9/2016 07:59

Oh dear, profits declining, brexit excuses and the old chestnut reliance on the second half.

[blondeamon] 07/9/2016 07:59

Yes MM but see how they mention only Scottish Power devices? I think Allianz not done yet as contract was just received so those 5000 will be added later although we know they are there, taking it up to 174,000.

Let's see the AGM video, I'm sure like last year lots of things will make sense.

Happy holder, might add on weakness as this is silly oversold for such growth.

[knowbodyyouno] 07/9/2016 07:58

Agreed and a huge spread as well. Does this indicate pre-opening sell orders?

[melody9999] 07/9/2016 07:57

They have obviously taken a hit in terms of exchange rate movements but this is an external factor and at least they have quantified. The £ has strengthened recently so maybe the full year impact will be lessened proportionately if this continues in coming months.

[tallprawn] 07/9/2016 07:55

Market Makers don't like the update looking at pre-open positions... Seems very harsh to be marking this down on open.