Trafalgar Property Share Discussion Threads

[harrytuesday] 13/11/2013 07:36

Volume suggests we may see 6p today. A great investment imo. Dividend and growing profit predicted over the next few years. Also this big planning application (not factored at all in the sp) they have in since September is worth the market cap and more on its own.

[cammy3] 12/11/2013 23:11

Thanks chaps.

[harrytuesday] 12/11/2013 22:18

Ambrian capital are forecasting 1.4m profit this year

[dwalton] 12/11/2013 22:17

The broker's note on floatation on AIM said net profit of £1.65m expected for fiscal year 2013/2014. I believe, but could not swear to the fact, that this expectation was reiterated in a second broker's analysis more recently.

This is dependent on expectations of selling all remaining properties at Edenbridge (all sold now except 1 final unit "under offer"), Hildenborough (definitely 2 sold STC, reportedly possibly up-to 7 - of 12 built)and some sundry smaller projects (all sold), in the fiscal year 2013/2014.

This now looks like a very real probability.

The directors have also indicated their intention to pay a dividend for the 2013/2014 year.

At current share price this would put them on a PE of around *7.5

Other smallish house-builders are on a current PE in the range *17-25 (for example:- Redrow *18.4, Mar City *28.85). Using the range *17 to 25, that would imply a true current value per share (mid) of between 12p and 18.25p per share.

The same brokers predicted a pre-tax net profit of circa £3m for fiscal year 2014/15 (equivalent on the same PE basis to between 22.25p and 33p per share).

As I understand it, this 2014/15 prediction is heavily dependent on them obtaining planning permission for their site at Staplehurst (large development eventually for 53 units - outline planning application made 2/09/13 but no decision yet).

A final factor likely to benefit TRAF holders is that there are only 42m shares in free float, the remaining 81.7% being held by the chairman. As we have seen recently, this means that when it rises it tends to do so very quickly, even on a relatively small (in financial terms) imbalance of purchases to sells.


Good luck to all and DYOR!

[cammy3] 12/11/2013 21:35

If you consider they only turned over 2.2m last year they returned a 30% margin with profits of 600k. We know they've already sold 2 units this early into their new financial year so already banked 1m of revenue.

[cammy3] 12/11/2013 21:29

Pyemckay I am looking for earnings of c0.4p for this year. However this could easily exceed

[pyemckay] 12/11/2013 21:03

cammy, what is the forecast eps and turnover for this year and next ?

[cammy3] 12/11/2013 20:58

Oh and the most important fact. The market cap if trafalgar is just plain stupid

[cammy3] 12/11/2013 18:35

Should see 10p comfortably. Help to buy scheme, planning permissions and unit sales along with any new land acquisitions. If there was ever a time and an environment for house builders to flourish then it's most definitely NOW.

[zed2002] 12/11/2013 18:27

vivgav,

Same Here. 10p before Christmas would be nice.

[endnas] 12/11/2013 18:25

Huge volume today, something brewing.

[vivgav] 12/11/2013 18:25

Hoping for at least 10p here on any news this side of Crimbo.

[moreforus] 12/11/2013 18:16

Blue sky until 8... With a chance of testing 10...

[cammy3] 12/11/2013 18:06

Oh come on vivgav I wish. There are 228m shares in issue and you know how many I had before Friday and todays accumulation !! I would love 3% but dont have your kind of cash mate

Fingers crossed for an update this week. Nice little flick on the charts with its nose firmly pointing north as you say

[vivgav] 12/11/2013 17:49

It is for you! You over 3% yet? :-)

[cammy3] 12/11/2013 17:40

Getting interesting now vivgav

[vivgav] 12/11/2013 16:34

Nice chart close.

[doodlebug4] 12/11/2013 16:05

Whether the update is this week or next, I'm sure it's going to make very positive reading.

[cammy3] 12/11/2013 15:57

Small update tomorrow or Thursday would be nice

[doodlebug4] 12/11/2013 15:45

MMs love to mess around with the bid/offer spread here in the afternoons.:-)

[moreforus] 12/11/2013 15:11

yep higher lows all day and gathering strength to break 5.5-5.75....

[endnas] 12/11/2013 15:09

4m traded up 15% so far.

[cammy3] 12/11/2013 13:31

Just a matter of time now. 15p before year end

[endnas] 12/11/2013 13:09

3m vol - follow the money on AIM