Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 23/8/2012 14:18

little pennant on the chart breaking to the upside here.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 23/8/2012 11:40

Last mm on 129p chart looks set to rally from here imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 16/8/2012 14:32

ta cestnous.

Dip soon got bought today again.

CR

[cestnous] 16/8/2012 07:15

very nice buy rec in 'Shares'mag today.

[stegrego] 14/8/2012 20:28

Looks like Giles Hargreaves had picked up some more shares, which can only be a good thing.

[jeanesy2] 14/8/2012 19:21

Seems i was right with trades, one further trade to be announced still

[apad] 14/8/2012 07:02

I can't make sense of this price.
apad

[jeanesy2] 13/8/2012 20:37

More large trades later in day.will we see a holding rns soon as not many shares in public domain?

[jeanesy2] 13/8/2012 12:41

Some large trades gone through today, they look like sells to me , strange!

[cockneyrebel] 13/8/2012 09:53

Looking good today - a test of that high again soon?

CR

[cockneyrebel] 10/8/2012 15:12

Another 25K at the full ask

CR

[cockneyrebel] 10/8/2012 11:39

25k buy - any sellers will get gobbled up with a few more of those I suspect.

imo

CR

[cockneyrebel] 10/8/2012 09:34

Profit takers kicking themselves now I suspect.

Trading update a bit late for SCSW tomorrow but reckon they'll mention the trialing in Scandinavia announced two weeks ago imo.

CR

[cestnous] 10/8/2012 07:12

TraHome > Tips & ideas > Share tips & updates
Tracsis building a head of steam

SHARE TIPS AND UPDATES
Tracsis PLC (uk:TRCS)
GROWTH
MEDIUM RISK
Bull points
Riding on the need to make railways efficient
Rail franchise schedule looks supportive
Potential for expansion overseas
Share price momentum
Bear points
Reliance on few customers
Acquisition risk
Witness the grim expressions of rail commuters passing through the country's main transport hubs on any morning of the week and the scale of Network Rail's task to drag the UK's rail network into the 21st century becomes apparent. But progress is being made and Tracsis is in the vanguard.
For an industry that is heavily unionised with relatively inflexible working patterns - the average train driver is thought to be driving for about 44 per cent of his or her working day - significant shifts are occurring. The McNulty Report into the railways, published in May 2011, highlighted cost reductions as a priority for the industry and recommended train operators use optimisation technology for scheduling and crew rosters. This was followed by a Department of Transport report this year, which identified labour efficiency savings of £173m over the coming seven years.
Tracsis offers a suite of software and hardware designed specifically with transport industries in mind and fits well with Network Rail's drive to transform the UK's rail network through its 'intelligent infrastructure' programme.
The most widely used of Tracsis' products is its core TrainTRACS software, which helps optimise the use of crews across a network using algorithms rather than the traditional blackboard and chalk. Crucially, the software takes into consideration the vagaries thrown up by legal, health-and-safety and labour agreements specific to each train operating company. In total, 14 out of the UK's 20 train operating companies use TrainTRACS, leasing the software for between £50,000 and £110,000 a year dependent on size. Tracsis reckons using TrainTRACS can generate a 12 per cent improvement in efficiency, potentially worth up to £5m a year. True, relying on just a few customers is a risk, but Tracsis' software tends to be very 'sticky', with operators renewing throughout their operating franchise.
TRACSIS (TRCS)
ORD PRICE: 138p MARKET VALUE: £34.2m
TOUCH: 125-138p 12-MONTH HIGH/LOW: 138p 55p
DIVIDEND YIELD: 0.4% PE RATIO: See text
NET ASSET VALUE: 35p NET CASH: £5.95m
Year to 31 July Turnover (£m) Pre-tax profit (£m) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2008 0.8 0.39 2.5 nil
2009 2.3 0.67 2.7 nil
2010 2.6 0.58 2.5 nil
2011 4.1 1.12 4.5 nil
2012* 8.6 3.2 10.1 0.5
% change +111 +184 +125 -
Normal market size: 2,000
Market makers: 5
Beta: 0.3
*Broker forecasts
The core product was extended with the introduction of TRACSRoster last year, which can be used in conjunction with TrainTRACS or as a standalone product. It is used by six train operating companies and talks are ongoing with several others. In addition to software, Tracsis acquired hardware last year when it bought MPEC, its fourth acquisition since floating on Aim in 2007. MPEC's rugged data loggers are used to monitor the condition of rail track and points to spot potential problems. Further acquisitions could bring risks, but MPEC has been such a success that Tracsis has paid out a £1m deferred consideration that was not due for another year. Indeed, much of the impetus behind analysts' forecast upgrades in April and June was down to MPEC's performance. MPEC equipment has also begun trials in Scandinavia, suggesting potential for expansion overseas.

The third leg of the Tracsis business, consultancy, should come into its own as the rail refranchising cycle picks up in the next two years.
SHARE TIP SUMMARY:
With significant momentum behind the drive for efficiency across the UK's rail network, Tracsis looks well placed. True, the share price is starting to respond. Even so, strip out the group's £6m of cash from the rating calculation and the shares trade on an earnings multiple of just 11 times. That seems undemanding. Buy.csis in IC today

[stevemp2000] 09/8/2012 21:23

CR, I think you may well be right about profit-takers regretting selling out.

Tracsis has a very strong business franchise serving a highly profitable, niche market with significant barriers to entry. It also operates in an industry which is seeing a structural increase in demand and attracting a lot of investment .

On top of this there is :

- a very strong balance sheet
- excellent cash generation
- high operational gearing
- explosive growth in both revenue and profit
- potential for international expansion

Assuming 2012 EPS of 10.1p (as indicated in today's update) and stripping out net cash of c. 30p per share, Tracsis is effectively trading on a single digit 2012 P/E.

As a small cap there's likely to be a fair amount of volatility, but in my opinion the current share price fails to reflect past performance, let alone future potential.

By the way Tracsis has just been tipped by Investors Chronicle.

[penpont] 09/8/2012 20:53

Agree with your analysis CR and feel it was slightly unfair and misleading of the article above to say 'Outlook for the 2013 financial year looks unclear'...could be taken to mean anything really but sounds distinctly downbeat. I'd be surprised not to see another upgrade during the course of the next year.

[penpont] 09/8/2012 16:00

From investorschampion.com website - free to register:

The developer, supplier and aggregator of resource optimisation, data capture and reporting technologies to the transport industries has provided an update on trading for the full financial year to 31 July 2012 which unfortunately disappointed the market

Download Tracsis PLC comments
The company provided somewhat mixed expectations for the 2013 financial year, leading the shares to fall 8% to 121p.

On the back of three upgrades this year, the house broker has reaffirmed their FY12 expectations for revenue of £8.6m, PBT of £3.17m and EPS at 10.1p. Outlook for the 2013 financial year looks unclear, with the Group confident of achieving further organic growth off the back of a strong sales pipeline.

This mornings share fall leaves them trading at 12x current year estimates, falling to 11.7x for 2013.

Management are anticipating a significantly slower growth rate for 2013 unless any acquisitions are made. Certainly a few potential opportunities have been earmarked, particularly international targets, yet nothing has come to fruition thus far. The Group benefits from a strong cash position (there is plenty!), with available cash of c.£7.5m at end July putting them in a good position to capitalise on opportunuities should they arise.

The house broker has alluded to the shares trading at a discount to the Software & Computer Services sector and maintains a Buy recommendation, raising their target price to 147p.

The Group's full year results will results will be announced on or around Tuesday 30 October 2012.

This entry was posted 4 hours, 1 minute ago and was filed under Tracsis PLC.

[cockneyrebel] 09/8/2012 09:41

I'm holding and not taking profits myself.

a) too illiquid - when it starts ticking up you can be locked out imo.

b) Scandinavia 30th July: "Tracsis, a developer and aggregator of resource optimisation, data capture and reporting technologies to the transport industries, is pleased to announce that it has commenced field trials of a new on-train condition monitoring system in Scandinavia. " I reckon that has massive potential - Sweden, Norway, Denmark - reckon if they sell into one country they sell into all three - up 10-20% at the open or more on solid news regarding this imo.

c) ride your winners - I'm sure that's what SCSW will be saying over the coming months imo - the stocks I've done best with like JDG I've bought and held.

d) market is changing and feeling much more bullish, AIM turing up, these AIM gems will do great in that sort of market imo.


All just my opinion - just don't want to be chasing it when it rallies myself but obviously each to their own.

CR

[pj 1] 09/8/2012 08:19

I have taken some off the table until things calm down a little. Will be holding the cash to come back.

This is still a large chunk of my Portfolio and looking forwrd to following the Growth story here.........

[stegrego] 09/8/2012 08:09

Incredibly shortsighted to be selling here IMO. Of course growth is going to be less than this year! I guess it's hard to turn down a 100 percent profit without taking some off the table, but I get the feeling people's mentality these days is to nip in and out and maybe grab 5 to 10 percent here and there.

[cestnous] 09/8/2012 08:04

Underpromise and outperform here I think will be the scenario here. I will be staying in for the longer term and buying any serious dips

[jeanesy2] 09/8/2012 07:21

Seems like some will take profits here, october is quite a way off, unless we get positive news before then .

[apad] 09/8/2012 07:18

The big share price rise story is over for a while, I think, CR.
Period of consolidation would do no harm.
I note the careful comment on possible acquisitions - but they all say that.
Needs a new category of news for a major change - the french using their systems for example:-)
I suppose I should top slice.....
apad