Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 28/11/2012 09:24

My last buy was at 125, which is about halfway between the 200 and 50 ema.
Put in an alarm to consider adding more at or below this price.
apad

[marlint111] 28/11/2012 09:17

A bit of a mention of Tracsis in this fool article: (talking with Guy Feld, co-manager of the Marlborough UK Micro-Cap Growth Fund)

[jamielein] 20/11/2012 13:49

I sold right at the top of the peak at the best possible price. (only joking)

I have a feeling I'll be holding for some time, unless something changes.

[cestnous] 20/11/2012 13:28

Nice to see an honest man Steg. We've all been there but not so many admit it.

[stegrego] 20/11/2012 12:45

I sold at the bottom of the dip. Twas ever thus.

[pj 1] 20/11/2012 12:00

L2 Has strengthened on the BID, I'm hoping leak of some News

[cestnous] 20/11/2012 11:54

Maybe an acquisition in the offing?

[cockneyrebel] 20/11/2012 11:13

Nicely back on the up today.

CR

[protean] 20/11/2012 10:46

Starting to move up again following the recent retracement after the results.

Revenue +112%, EBITDA +164%, Profit +169%

"There is a significant growth opportunity available to Tracsis both in the UK market and overseas and we will address this both organically and through acquisitions as appropriate."

[bigbigdave] 19/11/2012 16:20

Can't keep a good 'un down, also intending to hold this for some time.

[marlint111] 14/11/2012 09:56

Happy to see this. Lots of the short-termers who got in post results (and corresponding IC recommendations etc) have now probably got bored and selling out.

If we get down to the 130-140 level again- I'll be looking to top up (remember this is the level we had directors buying pre-results).

[cestnous] 14/11/2012 09:45

Being punished on low volume. Longish term hold for me here.

[apad] 05/11/2012 16:50

m...
Couldn't agree more.
Doubled my money in ARM in no time flat and sold at just over £2.
apad

[marlint111] 05/11/2012 13:49

I'm still planning on sitting tight here for now. I don't really believe in top-slicing profits- I think it ends up with the investor taking money out of their best ideas/shares, and putting it into worse ones (I think a few did this around the 150p mark)!

My short term price target is around 210p. That would see Tracsis on a prospective P/E of around 15 (based on the company's indication of next year's growth, not the WHI forecasts).

If we get towards that I might consider selling a chunk.

[cestnous] 05/11/2012 13:37

Off we go again.

[marlint111] 04/11/2012 12:03

Ghf. I simply don't understand the whi forecasts. As steg pointed out in his post, the company indicated that without acquisitions they expected to maintain the current rate of organic growth (40 percent). As we're already a few months into the year I imagine that ytd revenue growth has been in line with that.

The company has no history of over egging guidance for the year ahead. On fact they've often had to upgrade multiple times in the year.

This gives me good confidence that next year we will hit at least 14p eps.

[cockneyrebel] 04/11/2012 10:31

WHI done the same with GTC Stegrego - seems to be the way they like to guide with their small caps - let the co come out with a significantly ahead and get the attention seems to be the broker's guiadance imo.

CR

[stegrego] 03/11/2012 12:37

'Tracsis has performed well in the past year, as illustrated by significantly increased levels of revenue, profit, and a resulting strong cash position. The Directors are confident of achieving further growth in the future, and our underlying organic growth should remain on a consistent trajectory given the robust nature of the UK rail industry. The industry is undergoing widespread changes which provide new opportunities for the Group: This includes the alignment of Network Rail with train operators and the general devolution from a centralised structure to planning on a route by route basis plus the large amount of refranchising work which will be undertaken in coming years. Whilst organic growth should remain buoyant, the largest challenges to the business remain in finding new investment opportunities, the timing of which are always difficult to predict.'

The above paragraph suggests that organic growth will continue apace. I can't see how that can lead to the same eps for next year.
Aren't WHI forecasts dated August 12?

[cestnous] 03/11/2012 11:35

GHF

As far as I can establish, it looks like the re-franchising debacle will result in more consultancy work, not less, as TRCS prepares reports that are required by all potential franchisees in order to produce forward looking cost estimates.

[gymfit] 02/11/2012 23:20

God what a beaut,
Bound to be some coverage in SCSW as they tipped it recently

[glasshalfull] 02/11/2012 19:24

Stonking results from TRCS (& GTC). Just goes to show the value in concentrating on under-researched companies in the small cap sector ;-)

I had top-sliced GTC by 60% prior to results believing that the shares were up with events (more fool me!) but only decided today to lock in some of my profit from TRCS shares bought in the 70's and 80's. This partly follows WHI's forecast for 2013 which indicate no earnings growth over 2012, which I found astonishing at first glance, & also taking into consideration the considerable rise in shareprice following results.

Now I know that WHI were miles out this year, requiring to upgrade forecasts on 4 occasions as it happened, which I documented a number of time here and on the ZULU thread. However, although there are clearly significant opportunities for TRCS to open up International markets, the debacle of the UK rail refranchising may well impact on consultancy revenues in the coming period (consultancy grew 40% in 2012). I therefore now believe that WHI may have called this right in the short term, with the hiatus in rail refranchising offsetting growth elsewhere during 2013.

So, locked in profits by selling 60% of my TRCS holding today into the increasing demand for stock, while I intend to run the remainder.

Regards,
GHF

[ross1314] 02/11/2012 17:54

Looking good here and with the next phase of the RCM project within network rail being the monitoring of level crossings and all existing AOCL Conversions to AHB style crossings being fitted with monitoring equipment I foresee Mpec bringing in some considerable funds this coming year.