Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[cestnous] 02/11/2012 15:44

Roll on SCSW

[pj 1] 02/11/2012 15:04

The Resistance @ 165 looks to have gone at the mo..... :-))

[cestnous] 02/11/2012 11:17

We've all been there HB; you know I have!

[hairyback2] 02/11/2012 11:03

nice one cest
.......now no twitching,still reeling from selling LGO at 0.89p ffs
HB

[cockneyrebel] 02/11/2012 10:15

Hmm, not sure they have got ahead of themselves APAD, think they just got a lot of coverage that's attracted buyers short-term and like many AIM these are petty illiquid.

If I had any gripe it's the divi being so small compared to earnings. GTC put out a 1p divi with their results this week on 3p of earnings, from nothing last year. Divi's are a signal that the co understand they are looking after investors ultimately. 3-4p divi for TRCS would have been nicer and more convincing imo. They want to make acquisitions tho so probably trying to retain cash and probably don't have the visibility and growth GTC has.

All in all I tend to think results tend to prove the value in a stock and while you might not think TRCS looks cheap here then once further results come out then these will look cheaper imo. When the gov get their act together re the rail bidding process then these will look even more attractive imo, tho this gov seems to dordle and drag their feet over so much.

All just my opinion/dyor etc.


CR

[apad] 02/11/2012 09:52

M...
There is a stream of PIs jumping aboard, which must mean the share price is running ahead. Agree with your PERs but the Price to Net Operating Cash Flow still says CHEAP to me! No balance sheet baggage either :-)
However, last added on the 24 Oct. and can't see me adding any more for a while.
It was the last acquisition that alerted me to the company, if the next one is as astute (from a technical not a financial perspective) I shall consider increasing then. I look forward to picking over the bones with you when it happens!
apad

[pj 1] 02/11/2012 09:35

Don't have the article =(Mail?) But Arthur claimed he had to fend of quite a few Vultures, and was planning to do so for the next 3 years or so.

Judging him on results so far that's good enough for me

[marlint111] 02/11/2012 09:19

APAD. My feeling is the price is starting to get away from the story a bit. My base case prospective earnings for next year are 14p a share (based on no acquistions), giving a prospective P/E of around 11, and a historic one of 16.

However, I do feel there's a bit of risk here, as I think they're going to need to start getting some international success in order to hit those targets.

I'm not as worried by you about them advertising for acquisitions. They've got a lot of cash on the balance sheet (and have done for a while) and they've earned my confidence that they're not going to make poor, expensive or non-worthwhile acquisitions (the results said they had evaluated a lot of companies and turned them all down on valuation).

Nor am I worried about them partnering with other companies in Sweden or elsewhere. In the example in Sweden (I've read a bit about it), they are selling the Compass software. The Swedish company is effectively mobilizing that software so it can be used by train drivers, maintenance workers etc on the go. So great benefit to both companies.

As the Swedish company has existing links to a few European rail operators, this could provide a great way for Tracsis to enter the European market (and much easier than trying to sell to them 'cold').

[apad] 02/11/2012 08:46

What have folks discovered that is new?
I always worry when this sort of mutual agreement builds up. And now the IC has joined in!
My price to cash flow numbers don't make the price look high - anyone found any numbers they don't like?
I didn't know that they make so much on the franchise bidding process until I read the report - but that makes sense (Don't need some Tintin from the IC to do that). However it is not a basic growth driver.
I believe I read that they have 200 consultants as well as the 50 staffers on my spreadsheet. Only one staff job on offer on the website.
What about that Stockholm connection - through partnership with another software company? Why is that a good thing? Doesn't it just dilute international expansion.
Software companies are a minefield. Could TRCS link with another software company and discover that its accounts are fictional (as have many private investors) rather than growing organically or linking to companies that complement its basic software expertise? Finding an acquisition like the last one is not going to be easy. Didn't I read about them advertising for acquisitions on their website? Don't like the sound of that.
apad

[cestnous] 02/11/2012 08:37

CR
Great minds etc :-0. Seen the IC tip on SUH? posted on thread. Very bullish. Thanks for the heads up on that one.

[cockneyrebel] 02/11/2012 08:22

Hmm - we posted at exactly the same time cestnous :-)

CR

[bigbigdave] 02/11/2012 08:22

Cheers cestnous :o)

[jeanesy2] 02/11/2012 08:21

This is flying this morning . Anyone know what is going on ?

[cockneyrebel] 02/11/2012 08:21

Motoring this am - tipped in IC ?

CR

[cestnous] 02/11/2012 08:21

Today's IC

TIP UPDATE
Tracsis PLC
GROWTH
MEDIUM RISK
Buy
Our previous tip
WE SAIDBuy
WHEN9 Aug 2012
PRICE138p
TIP PERFORMANCE TO DATE+6%
RESULTS: The integration of data-logging company MPEC made 2012 a watershed year for rail technology specialist Tracsis.
Following on from a positive pre-close statement, rail technology specialist Tracsis (TRCS) delivered full-year profits ahead of analyst expectations. Strong conversion of profits into cash enabled management to initiate dividend payments and to boost cash balances by 62 per cent to £7.6m. Chief executive John McArthur has earmarked this capital to fund growth organically and through acquisition. We are confident, too, that Tracsis will be able to achieve this both at home and, increasingly, abroad.
Revenues more than doubled, aided by a "very significant" degree by a full-year contribution from MPEC, a data-logging company acquired in 2011, which contributed revenues of £4.5m. MPEC's technology provides real-time information on equipment, enabling rail companies to replace failing parts before they break. Demand is on the increase and a strong showing from MPEC helped Tracsis drive adjusted cash profits up by 164 per cent to £3.3m.
Despite possible delays linked to the retendering of the West Coast line, at least 80 per cent of UK franchises will come up for tender over the next five years, providing tremendous growth opportunities. Tracsis is also intent on expanding outside the UK; at present, only 3 per cent of revenues are generated abroad.
WH Ireland expects EPS of 10.7p and a dividend of 0.65p in the 12 months to July 2013.

[bigbigdave] 01/11/2012 16:46

Just noticed TRCS goes ex divi on the 16th January, my birthday which will be a nice birthday gift. Suspect the share price may be further north of here by then.

[marlint111] 01/11/2012 15:07

Yes- thanks protean, a great article with some useful information.

[jeanesy2] 01/11/2012 13:57

Thanks for that article protean, full of potential in this great company

[cestnous] 01/11/2012 12:03

Glad to hear they have a good track record. :-)

[protean] 01/11/2012 11:22

"Eric Burns, analyst at house broker WH Ireland, said: "Tracsis has an enviable track record of delivering earnings-enhancing acquisitions which could be internally funded by the very substantial net cash position of £7.6m."

Daniel Stewart analyst Sophie Blandford said: "The outlook remains strong for the company, with growth opportunities in both the UK market and overseas.""

[cockneyrebel] 01/11/2012 11:16

Looking rather good for these and GTC this week :-) Both hitting thumping new highs.

CR

[jeanesy2] 01/11/2012 08:27

Buys still coming in , now at full ask . Another tick up due ?
Has anyone come across any press articles please?

[apad] 31/10/2012 18:09

West...
You are correct.

I calculate
PER: 15
Price/OpCashFlow: 10
Price/FreeCashFlow: 14

Looks fine, especially as the last couple of years' CAPEX is unusual due to acquisition.

apad