2025 Q1 volume on track to be the highest since 2016:
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
That reeves has killed it
Worry what she will say at end of month
Will warn then warn again |
"as well as a strong pipeline in the US"
??
They have a very small toehold in the US. New little kid on the block. It might develop into more in the coming year or so, or might not. Pipeline implies something beyond mere possibilities, something that is on its way. Have they indicated any such? |
Given how many other companies have warned about slow contract awards in the UK rail industry, it is no surprise that Tracsis have had a quiet first half. However, they might still make full year estimates if H2 improves which is not bad for a stock that has plummeted in recent months.
Once 2025 is out of the way you have a company with net cash, strong market position and two important contracts (ScotRail and national tap converter 'pay as you go') coming on stream to underpin 2026 forecasts as well as a strong pipeline in the US. This share could fly as the market assesses positive 2026 prospects. |
There is added context further down;
"In line with previous years, revenue and EBITDA margin are expected to increase in H2 FY25, with underlying seasonality in Traffic Data & Events supplemented by recent contract wins, an order book of work for H2 FY25 delivery, and a pipeline of opportunities in the UK and North America. Successful conversion of this pipeline positions the Group to deliver an FY25 performance in line with market expectations. This will be influenced by customer procurement decisions and timelines, as well as by how UK rail market developments unfold, including the level of CP7 activity and the ongoing rail reform consultation."
Pretty much as I expected, very uncertain near term due to a number of factors, but not sure there is too much downside from here. On the other hand I can't see a significant recovery until there is more clarity on the outlook & revenue / EPS levels moving forward. |
Reads like a major profit warning
The slow start to CP7 continues to affect the UK rail supply chain, and is impacting the Group's RCM business where order visibility is lower. We expect RCM volumes to return closer to historical levels in H2 FY25 as CP7 enters its second year in April 2025, however the timing of this remains uncertain. |
Not hard to make money at all, you just had to be aware of the materiality of this announcement when shares traded sub 385p this morning. I'm still dubious about the contents of the TU next week though so have taken some profit. I do think the negativity on TRCS from certain individuals has been overdone though. |
I have refrained from buying and cancelled my order because the spread is incredibly wide. It is difficult to make much money. The MMs are having a field day. |
I read it as no impact on forecasts for FY25. |
It wasn't clear whether they meant they are trading in line or just that the contract had no impact on trading . There's no retail coverage to clarify this now sadly , but Im guessing the institutional broker has .... |
 Any negatives to call out here gents?
"A total of 1.7 billion rail passenger journeys were recorded across Great Britain in the 12 months to September 20241. Tracsis estimates that PAYG transaction volumes using the Tap Converter system could in the medium term equate to 10-15% of total annual passenger journeys with commuters expected to drive the highest adoption rates. "
"In 2024, Tracsis processed 2.25 million PAYG journeys. With the recent go-live of new PAYG deployments in Wales (contactless EMV) and Scotland (Tap&Pay) we expect to see accelerated growth in passenger journeys over the coming months ahead of the deployment of the Tap Converter system."
"Once the Tap Converter system is operational, Tracsis revenues will be based on the volume of transactions processed and this will be driven by future customer adoption rates and system usage."
So it's unclear just how material a slice of the ~£12b rail travel pie TRCS will get. However, even assuming the low end of the medium term 10-15% adoption estimate, the potential appears material vs the current enterprise value of ~£95m.
Also trading in line with expectations... |
Speehy hire
Further, the delay in CP7 rail works has also had an impact on trading in the final quarter |
74tom. Nope. The occasional hit goes with the territory. Though Guaranteed Stoploss facilities are available these days and I do sometimes employ those. I win often enough to cope with the occasional explosion. ;-) |
redwing1 - Yep, certainly looking perky this week. And we did see it climb 200p last autumn. My short positions are all in fragmented stakes on graduated stops, so they automatically shrink my exposure when things run against me. 392 was the last rung on the ladder - above which I maintain only a token 1p-a-pt to keep it in view, pending its next fall. ;-) |
Nice try at supporting your short position, grabster, but if Tracsis gets through to results without a profit warning you could get your fingers burnt. We all know that cp7 has been slow for many suppliers to the rail industry but Tracsis has a good pipeline, £18m net cash and a low rating. Much more upside than downside from here. |
A 4.675% reduction in the size of Cannacord's position.
Cut from 5.2379%, to 4.9930% |
TRCS managed a 35p bounce last month before collapsing to a new low. It is currently 37p up from its low of 2 days ago. |
By Laura Pollock
Multimedia Journalist
30 January 2025
TODAY, I tried ScotRail's new “pay as you go” system for train tickets on my way to work.
The operator is trialling the app across Glasgow and the Strathclyde area first, and may look to roll out the app more widely across the country if it is successful.
I initially thought, this will be great. It will be just like several tap-on and tap-off systems on buses, and in other cities across the UK.
However, for the average commuter — it seems pretty pointless.
I downloaded the app, which is separate from the usual ScotRail app, signed up and was keen to start.
The app gave me the option to confirm my starting station, which it knew based on my location, and it provided me with a barcode to scan at the station I arrived at.
It was simple, and seamless, but after using it, I was unsure of what the point of it was.
I felt it saved me no time, and I actually found myself going from app to app, to check the time of my train on the old app as the new app gives no information like that.
Maybe if you make a varied range of journey's across Glasgow, not using the same lines a lot of the time, the app would be worth it and save you time from choosing different stations.
But, it gives no information on routes, journey times, ticket prices, or delays.
The new app seems built for regular travellers with knowledge of their route and journey times, but the point of the app is for varied journeys?
Once I got to the office, I looked at the app to see if I was getting charged — and realised there was a final step.
After scanning at the gates and before buying my coffee, I should've pressed "end journey". Instead, once I got to the office, I was closer to Charing Cross station and that was recorded as my end point.
Thankfully, I hadn't left the Strathclyde area and the app knew I couldn't have got a direct train from my starting station to Charing Cross, so did charge me the regular single to Glasgow Central.
If I had left the Strathclyde area on a direct train though, I would've been fined £25.
It seems an interesting start to the tap and pay system, but personally, I won't be using it again and would love to see the two apps combined.
Charing Cross ??? |
The recent decline is almost certainly driven by Renew's profit warning last Friday, since which TRCS has lost nearly 20% of it's value. If they stick to the schedule of the last few years then the next trading update will be the third week of Feb, I'd say a profit warning is fairly certain based on the share price action, the question appears to be how big? |
That original contract is not new and dates back to 2021...
Wonder what is causing the recent share price decline |
adminck - just type hTTp instead of http when posting links, to bypass blockings by advvfn. You can go back and edit original post. :-)
Share price down more than 60% in 12 months and down 30% in the past 4 weeks alone.
Or as this robotic assessor says:
Anything below 349p would take it back to where it was 10 years ago, wiping out all gains made since then. |
Adminck - anything the Scottish govt touches turns to sh!t - ferries, DRS scheme, buying camper vans etc.
From what you describe there doesn’t sound like a great user experience at all.
No position in trcs, ex holder. Sold when they announced warning due to stuff slipping into following year, then not subsequently upping following year forecasts. |
 This ScotRail announcement is the sort of thing which is dubiously announced.
First of all, it's not tap and go - like London. You have to download an app, set it all up and let it monitor your data connection, GPS etc. It then tries to amalgamates all that information into a fare and bills a card you have to have previously set up and registered. From briefly flicking through some trainspotter enthusiast site, it appears as though this is great in theory, but data connection and GPS accuracy is problematic in parts of Scotland - and initial feedback is that it isn't handling changes of trains or walkers, hikers etc breaking their journey and resuming it later very well. No support for concessions or discount schemes either by the looks of things, which is especially a problem in Scotland, as significant numbers of passengers have a reduction, particularly younger and older people.
How is this being monetised by TRCS? Are they taking a % for each customer, each ticket, fixed license fee etc - what is the financial potential or impact of this contract? Are they offering it at a loss in order to get their foot in the door and offer more profitable services etc.
Whilst it is commendable to innovate and I'm glad to see a win - until I see the Scottish Government publish the tender result with a value, I am sceptical. |
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