Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 25/10/2012 12:50

I think scandinavia looks too exciting to worry about that WJCC - and that's just one line.

If you ask me these came of simply because they said growth would be 'slower' going fwd, unles they made an acquisition. To most that was obvious. When growth is triple digit it has to slow, but when the price is factoring in little growth the sell off looks mad imo.

Nice to see it rallying imo - think these could be very exciting with the software and opportunities they have imo.

CR

[bigbigdave] 25/10/2012 12:37

Nice, getting a shift on.

[wjccghcc] 25/10/2012 12:16

I've also bought back a few I sold higher. My only concern is the impact of the UK train franchising mess on the consulting side. While it means they're actually going to have more work since everything will have to be redone, there might be a short-term hiatus until the government restarts the process.

[wiwaxy] 25/10/2012 12:12

Now 5p premium quoted to buy nms of 2000

[cockneyrebel] 25/10/2012 11:36

Bouncing off the 200 day average which isn't a surprise imo - looks very cheap at that level imo.

CR

[jeanesy2] 25/10/2012 11:35

Now very tight range. Can now sell at 124.1 and buy at 125.

[jeanesy2] 25/10/2012 11:01

Steady buying today. Time for a small rise before the results next week ?

[apad] 24/10/2012 08:32

PJ & Marl..
I too am more conservative for 2013 - no acquisition boost.
I am also looking for international orders but suspect that they would have rns'd anything significant. It is this that would increase 2013 significantly.
Topped up this morning at 124.
apad

[cockneyrebel] 23/10/2012 17:38

Marlin - the fwd EPS looks way too low imo.

Some punters got spooked by the co saying growth would be slower going fwd without them making any other acquisitions - hello! Is that really a surprise? They were growing at an astronomical rate, the growth rate has to slow a bit.

There's no way growth slow from 150% to 1.5% as per forecasts tho, imo. I think brokers are just waiting to see the results out before upgrading forecasts imo.

A director bought 15K @ 130p 5 weeks ago too.

Agree it's nice to have a quiet thread - the best threads are the quiet ones imo - busy threads have a lot of expectation in them imo.

CR

[pj 1] 23/10/2012 16:47

Marlin
I have pencilled in a Conservative 30% e.p.s. increase FY 2013.(13.2p)

Following on also from Mc's comments earlier this year I am in the process of making this one of my Core holdings. News flow was very regular so I believe we are overdue an announcement.

Cheers pj

[cestnous] 23/10/2012 16:32

Martin
Yes, most of this is in the SCSW coverage, but they have been conservative in the past so I live in hope. Personally, I would like to see the cash used for earning enhancing aquisitions rather than give it mugs like me who would probably spend it on more of their shares - unless that is their cunning plan? Best of luck.

[marlint111] 23/10/2012 16:27

Cestnous- I wouldn't expect this year's forecasts to be broken (as they basically confirmed the values in the August pre-close update). It is next year where things get interesting.

Hopefully we'll get some indication of how the first few months of the year have gone in the update.

Things I'm looking out for:
- Any hints of international traction
- What are organic growth rates looking like
- Any acquisitions on the horizon
- If not- are they going to start distributing some of the cash pile (around 30 p per share I believe) in the form of a bumped up dividend.

[cestnous] 23/10/2012 16:23

Too heavily into this now. Had two top ups and can't afford any more. I personally think the forecasts will be broken; but then I would, wouldn't I. :-)

[marlint111] 23/10/2012 16:10

CR/PJ - I actually quite like the thread being clear of some of the 'noise' you find on more popular boards. The signal to noise ratio is pretty good here.

Would be interested in both your views on where you see EPS going next year- do you agree that current broker forecasts (10.3p) seem too low?

[pj 1] 23/10/2012 15:54

Must be good news CR, this is my only share which hasn't fallen today!!!! :-((

[cockneyrebel] 23/10/2012 15:48

How quiet is this thread with results next week?

They are only going to double eps and more, you'd never believe it :-)

CR

[marlint111] 16/10/2012 09:49

I've used the slight pullback as an opportunity to top up.

We know more or less what's going to be in the 2012 results. EPS around 10 p a share (an increase of 120% year on year). This puts TRCS on a P/E of around 12, which is crazy given the rate of growth (look at the 2008-10 period when it traded on a P/E of 20 and was growing more slowly!).

What interests me is any indication of trading so far this year. The board have already indicated that growth isn't likely to be as fast as last year (which was the first full year to include the MPEC acquisition I believe).

However- that could put us anywhere between no growth, and 120% growth. Broker forecasts are for next years EPS to hit 10.3p (2% growth in EPS) - which seems far too low to me- I'd be disappointed if we didn't hit at least 12p EPS- and I think that's a pretty modest target.

I'd also point out to everyone that this company has a history of underpromising and over delivering. Add this in to the directory buying at higher prices than the current price, and I'm confident enough to top up!

[cockneyrebel] 15/10/2012 16:58

well looking rather cheap seeing a director was buying well over this price just over a month ago, imo

Easy for clumpy sellers to wallop a price in an illiquid small cap imo.

CR

[cestnous] 15/10/2012 16:19

Taking a beating this pm. Seems one large sell sell set of a spate of smaller ones.

[cockneyrebel] 10/10/2012 19:38

Well a director bought 15K a month ago at this price.

SCSW should update on Sat then it's results at the end of the month so plenty to move the shareprice imo.

CR

[apad] 10/10/2012 17:20

Much obliged marlin,
PER comes down to something reasonable, which leaves the price to free cash flow. Removing last year's acquisition could turn that into something more reasonable.
Not much room for slippage.
Maybe some profit taking if expectations are only met.
I find it difficult to buy at these prices (just wish I had bought more in the first place) - the psychology of price rises and falls!

apad

[marlint111] 10/10/2012 10:35

APAD- Digital look suggests this year to come in at 8.6 million revenue, 3.17 profit, 10.1p EPS

2013 9.0 million revenue, 3.25 profit, 10.3p EPS.

The 2012 forecast is likely to be pretty much bang on (as it ties in with the RNS earlier in the year), but the 2013 forecast looks on the low side to me (only 3 months ago consensus 2013 earnings were 6.4p per share).

I wouldn't like to hazard a guess for 2013 numbers myself, but I'd be surprised if they didn't manage to grow revenue at least 20% .

[apad] 10/10/2012 10:23

Still a bit startled at the PER and price to cash flow (looking back).

Anyone have the latest forecasts to hand?

apad

[pj 1] 10/10/2012 09:34

Looks like a good time to increase back to my original holding IMO (assuming I can get them)