Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[babbler] 08/3/2018 08:09

Yet no trades and move down??

[phowdo] 08/3/2018 08:01

mentions operational update for next week too.

[captainfatcat] 08/3/2018 07:59

A good day ahead fingers crossed

[zengas] 08/3/2018 07:58

Very nice lift in reserves.

[che7win] 08/3/2018 07:44

Nice update

[buffythebuffoon] 28/2/2018 13:20

AIM investors will be interested when the production report RNSs show a huge percentage increase.

Buffy

[john henry] 28/2/2018 11:48

Really RRL is an absolute dog, but i guess it has acreage outside of Trinidad.

[john henry] 28/2/2018 11:06

And an oiler that hasnt any high impact drills or acreage. Aim market investors are not interested.

[phowdo] 28/2/2018 10:13

Guaranteed way to lose money is to buy smallcap oilers/miners when everyone else is piling in and then sell on the following lower dips when interest inevitably wanes.

[grannyboy] 28/2/2018 09:17

This is what happens when news drys up in a small company..

[captainfatcat] 27/2/2018 10:02

Should we be expecting news soon? Not sure how long these wells take to drill.


"The Company spudded the first well of the program on its Grand Ravine WD-4 block on February 3, 2018. The PS-602 well is being drilled to an approximate total depth of 5,500 feet, targeting the Upper and Lower Forest formations. The Forest sands are the main producing formation of the property, and the well is targeting a significant undrained portion of the block identified by surrounding well logs and production. The well is currently at 1,125 feet and the Company is setting surface casing. It is anticipated to reach total depth within the next ten days. The well is expected to be placed on production within 14 days from completion of logging and casing."

[mount teide] 23/2/2018 11:11

poombear: Posted this recently on the JTC thread:

“The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If you’ve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you’ve got a very good business.” - Warren Buffet

The Pricing Power of Cyclical Markets:

The commodity cycle saw the mining industry's pricing power tap turned fully off and locked shut at the market top in 2008-2010, and this is where it stayed until the 6-8 year waterfall drop off in industrial metal pricing hit the H1/2016 capitulation bottom - a level well below the C1 cash cost of much of the mining industry and massively below the cost of developing new production(estimated at nearly double the market bottom pricing for Copper and Zinc).

In H2/2016 - as a consequence of an estimated 75% drop off in production development during the previous half decade to preserve cash, the almost complete cessation of exploration, years of widespread industrial action at the major mines in Chile, Peru and South Africa together with a material drop off in ore grades/increase in operating costs at the principal global scale mines, the 'pricing power tap' was dusted off, given a squirt of WD40 and gently cranked open.

Since, with Chinese demand remaining strong while the synchronized nature of growth in the rest of the world gathered pace, the metals industry business cycle has fallen behind the growth in demand and, seen Zinc and Copper move into deficit and warehouse stocks at/close to decade lows, the cumulative effect of which has been to turn the 'pricing power tap' close to fully open.

Any objective assessment of the current market fundamentals (now supported by the consensus view of market analysts after 18 months of most forecasting further armageddon for the sector), would suggest that despite industrial metal pricing surging off the lows in 2016/17, as a result of an unprecedented set of circumstances(demand-supply deficit/decade low stock levels) this early in the new commodity cycle, the pricing power tap is likely to remain at/close to fully open for the rest of the decade before slowly getting shut-in during the following decade as the next commodity cycle market peak is approached perhaps in circa 2023-2026.

However, to this observer with the scars of three shipping/commodity cycle scars deeply etched on his back, a number of factors suggest this commodity cycle recovery/boom phase may have a longer life expectation and greater trough/peak price range than in previous cycles - why?

The last industrial metals/shipping recession phase was longer and deeper than any previous cycle in living memory.

After a decade of low investment following the financial crisis many high population Nations are now actively involved in implementing huge capital expenditure programs to rebuild their crumbling infrastructure - India, USA - while most of the fast growing African and the emerging Nation economies are carrying out and accelerating infrastructure and industrialisation development programmes similar to China in 2000-2008.

Global GDP forecasts have seen repeated uplifts by the IMF to nearly 4% for 2018 and 2019, together with the US announcing a record programme of tax cuts, greater even than the Reagan era which produced an enormous decade long economic boost.

The rapidly growing demand for industrial metals from the materially important global electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors over the decade ahead.

The last cyclical market peak pricing in 2007(Zinc and Lead) and 2010(Copper), after inflation adjustment is 54%(Zinc), 87%(lead) and 65%(Copper) above CURRENT pricing!

As a result of low barriers to entry(anyone can buy a ship or a mine), the shipping/commodity markets have charted a remarkably reliable 15-20 year boom and bust life cycle over the last 70 years - as a consequence, in an average human lifetime investors may get 2-3 small windows of opportunity to time an investment in the sector perfectly. Once every 3 or so shipping/commodity cycles, circumstances(industry and global economics fundamentals conspire) to produce a super recovery/boom phase - with shipping, zinc, copper and the oil markets coming off near decade long falls of 98%, 66%, 56% and 76% respectively, I strongly suspect this latest cycle recovery phase may turn out to be such an event.

Ignore the enormous pricing power (up and down) of long term cyclical markets at your investment peril!


Central Asian Metals (CAML) is probably one of AIM's greatest success stories and certainly one of its best kept secrets.

CAML raised $60m at IPO in September 2010; after paying the 2017 dividend CAML has since returned during a 7 year mining sector recession an astonishing and unprecedented $100m to shareholders in dividends and share buy-backs.

Shareholders have received an incredible 60% of the IPO price in dividends and seen some 200% capital growth DURING a severe, more than half decade long mining sector RECESSION.

CAML is a very rare bird indeed in the mining sector - an incredibly well managed, low operating cost, high cash generating, high dividend paying copper/zinc/lead producer which has demonstrated to the market it can make serious money and pay huge dividends even in the depths of the longest and deepest recession to hit the sector for decades - a recession so brutal it saw mining sector titan Glencore lose 85%+ of its valuation, suspend the dividend and heavily dilute its shareholders with a huge placing to strengthen its balance sheet.

While all this carnage was going on little CAML sailed serenely on and acted more like a dividend paying, safe haven, heavyweight FTSE company should act during a recession than ANY of the so called dividend paying, 'safe' haven FTSE heavyweights actually did!

No Investment advice offered, intended or inferred

AIMHO/DYOR


Following chart compares the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI - 20 major commodities) v S&P500 over nearly 50 years. The hugely cyclical nature of the GSCI Commodity chart closely mirrors the Baltic Dry Index Shipping Chart over a similar period.

[poombear] 23/2/2018 10:08

Got another one of those MT? I keep looking at Saga as a big dividend paying recovery stock. Think they need to prove they can turn it around though.

[mount teide] 23/2/2018 10:01

'quiet BBs are often where the money is made.'

The world's leading shipbroker Clarkson, Advfn CKN thread has seen an average of 1 post a week during the last decade - largely gave up posting there over the years since I was mostly talking to myself.

Clarksons share-price has gone up from £0.90 in 2000 to £32.00 today.

£50k invested in CKN back in 2000 when I went in heavily at the bottom of the previous shipping cycle today generates an annul dividend of circa £36,000 AND has since generated circa £350,000 of dividends payments along with £1.75m capital growth!

Who says long-term buy and hold is dead ?

[che7win] 22/2/2018 11:27

phowdo,
I prefer a quiet board, quite happy to hold these and be patient.

[phowdo] 22/2/2018 10:47

Looks like the valuation gap between here and the Canucks has now closed. A few buys trickling in ahead of drill results. Fortunately none of the craziness here that plagued UKOG.

[mazarin] 16/2/2018 23:09

Thanks MT: I have found this article recently published and probably relates to your info, as follows:

[mount teide] 16/2/2018 19:38

The first well, PS-602, is located in the Grand Ravine WD-4 Block. It was spudded on February 3 and is being drilled down to around 5,500 feet, targeting two zones (the upper and lower Forest formations - these are the main producing formations at Grand Ravine, and the well is positioned in what’s seen as an ‘undrainedR17; portion of the property.

Target depth is expected to be reached within ten days, with the well online for production within fourteen after that - so we could well hear news next week.

The second rig is expected to commence drilling before the end of the month at the Forest Reserve WD-8 block.