Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[awise355] 23/4/2018 08:17

Good bump from late buying Friday and continued buys from the off.Looking forward to next progress - some one on LSE claims they are on the 5th well, not sure where that info is or a projected timeline

[mount teide] 21/4/2018 15:47

Good to see the Institutional investor herd is finally waking up to the reversion of the commodity cycle to the mean. Some of us correctly called the 8 year low shipping and commodity cycle bottom in H1/2016, went in heavily and, have been averaging up for over 18 months as the investment case continues to strengthen.



Commodities are flashing a once-in-a-generation buy signal - US Global Investors




'Since the commodities supercycle unwound nearly 10 years ago, many investors have been waiting for the right conditions to trigger mean reversion and lift prices. I believe those conditions are either firmly in place right now or, at the very least, in their early stages. Among them are factors I’ve discussed at length elsewhere—a weaker U.S. dollar, a steadily flattening yield curve, heightened market volatility, overvalued stocks, expectations of higher inflation, trade war jitters, geopolitical risks and more.

In addition, nearly 60 percent of money managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe 2018 could be the peak year for stocks. A recent J.P. Morgan survey found that three quarters of ultra-high net worth individuals forecast a U.S. recession in the next two years.

All of this makes the investment case for commodities, gold and energy more compelling than at any other time in recent memory.

Exhibit A is the chart below, which I’ve shared before but recently updated with new data. Relative to equities, commodities are as cheap right now as they’ve been in decades. This is literally a once-in-a-generation opportunity that investors with a long-term view should seriously consider. For perspective, had you invested in a fund tracking the S&P GSCI or an equivalent commodities index in 2000, you would have seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 10 percent for the next 10 years, according to Bloomberg data...............

.............We all know that past performance is no guarantee of future results, but it’s doubtful you’re going to get a clearer or resounding signal that now could be an ideal time to add to your commodities exposure. If you feel as if you’ve been stuck at a traffic light these past few years, just waiting to put your foot on the accelerator, you can breathe a sigh of relief because the light may have just turned green.

Goldman: Time to Overweight Commodities

I'm not alone in my bullishness. In a note this week, analysts at Goldman Sachs write that “the strategic case for owning commodities has rarely been stronger.” The bank recommends an overweight position, estimating that commodities will yield at least 10 percent over the next 12 months, with most of the gains being made by crude oil and aluminum.

Whereas crude traders are responding primarily to concerns that output could be disrupted by intensifying conflict in the Middle East, specifically oil producer Syria, aluminum prices have skyrocketed following the imposition of fresh U.S. sanctions against a number of Russian firms. Among them is United Company RUSAL, the world’s second-largest aluminum company, responsible for producing as much as 6 percent of global supply..................'

[uapatel] 20/4/2018 14:38

Trimmed some of my TRIN to put a foot in here today. Feel this is behind the curve on the share price front. Listening to the two Valuethemarkets webcasts helps to make the decision easy.

Hopefully I haven't jinxed the share price rise!

[marvelman] 20/4/2018 14:33

Thank you Ross. I imagine the debt is a factor but the MT post previously puts things in perspective. There aren't many oilers about without debt at some level but with oil on a resurge I prefer politically stable areas such as T & T to invest in....I will certainly be investing here now. Regards.

[mount teide] 20/4/2018 13:54

At current oil price TXP's 1,700bopd production will be generating gross annual revenues of circa $45m - management cash flow forecast for 2018 is $12m and that is based on $55 oil.

[marvelman] 20/4/2018 13:19

Anyone.....wanting to invest here but can't shake off the concern of that large debt to service....some heavyweight investors here so surely that concern has been discounted?

[awise355] 20/4/2018 12:21

Let's hope Trump doesn't spoil the party!

[mount teide] 20/4/2018 11:30

Just one MM left on 14p, rest are on 14.5p and above - as with TRIN not much stock around, so any significant buying is propelling the price Northwards pretty quickly.

[awise355] 20/4/2018 11:04

Going to see a 20% rise today at this rate

[awise355] 20/4/2018 10:59

Caza's huge increase in production unfortunately was fuelled by $50M of debt and hostage to the decrease in POO.Txp actually has the reverse effect and the compound affect should hopefully propel us to large gains this year

[mount teide] 20/4/2018 10:59

Buff - Paul Baay is a high conviction operator - if the economics add up he will not be shy in responding accordingly.


A final 50,923 this morning to raise the holding to 1.15% at an average of 9.92p - barring the collapse of the POO(unlikely) and the onset of a global recession(estimated at less than 10%), i expect TXP to be a strong candidate for my best portfolio performer over the next 12-18 months.



AIMHO/DYOR

[walter walcarpets] 20/4/2018 10:55

awise: CAZA brings back happy 5 bagger memories for me. Expecting that here but with much less risk :-)

[buffythebuffoon] 20/4/2018 10:28

awise355,

Yes, Caza had great acreage. Sadly, like all of us, they didn’t foresee the exponential drop in the OP, and certainly had no defence against the effects.

At today’s OP they’d have been raking it in; and so would I!

Buffy

[buffythebuffoon] 20/4/2018 10:25

MT, I wouldn’t rule out a rinse and repeat commencing some time in H2 this year.

Buffy

[mr. t] 20/4/2018 10:08

I've added this morning too, the investment case is compelling.

[crooky1967] 20/4/2018 10:07

Well done che7win. Certainly a good buy with 10 drills by August and a possible 10 after. My guess is they will be at between 3000 and 3200 bopd by next April. If oil prices stay where they are or better still increase then even 50p may be conservative. 5000 could be achievable in 2020. If so I might be able to retire early.

[che7win] 20/4/2018 09:55

There is my 90k buy showing.

[awise355] 20/4/2018 08:20

Lucky you and agreed. I'm holding 107565 which is a little heavy for me given historical losses on things like new world oil and gas, caza and night hawk but this is in a different league..Loved caza and if alive now would be excellent as held good acreage in the Permian

[che7win] 20/4/2018 08:17

awise,
guilty as charged. I've been buying heavily in here first 15 minutes.

Added just under another 150,000 in multiple batches, a 90,000 buy of mine not showing yet.

I would expect these to catch up with TRIN, give it a year or so and wouldn't be surprised if these are above 50p by then.

Its incredible value to me.

[awise355] 20/4/2018 08:14

Strong buying can we see 14, 15 or even 16p today!

[grannyboy] 19/4/2018 23:12

Yes slow rerate, lagging behind the rise in the oil price..might start to mirror the rise that TRIN has seen over the last week or so?!!!