Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[zeusfurla] 20/10/2018 11:15

Mr T Thanks for the info on Richard Sneller and also to MT for referring to TXP some weeks past in another post which encouraged me to research the company. I've built up a small stake here in recent weeks and am impressed by the professionalism I'm seeing the company demonstrate. Looks like there's a clear strategy mapped out for the next year and they are exceeding delivery against their expectations. Exactly the solid and consistent kind of results I look for as an investor.

[mount teide] 19/10/2018 19:00

Mr.T - thanks.

[mr. t] 19/10/2018 18:24

Mount Teide - I got the data from the EIA here:

[mr. t] 19/10/2018 18:22

TXP's recent high was on 7th August at 21.5p compared to 20.3p today

- On 7th August Brent was $72.31 compared to $80 today.
- On 7th August the last operational update (from 12th June) said production was 1,821 bbls/day compared to our most recent operational update saying production is 2,015 bbls/day.
- On 7th August the plan was to drill 10 wells in 2018, compared to the current plan to drill 14.
- Since the 7th August, the Ortoire plans have progressed nicely.

So, why is TXP's share price today less today than it was in August? There's no good reason and its due to market inefficiency - which will be corrected soon enough when TXP rises to 25p then 30p imo.

[mount teide] 19/10/2018 18:19

Mr.T - thanks for the historical oil sales price analysis - the prices Paria are achieving on the open market are certainly encouraging for TXP.

Out of interest where did you get your WTI historical average pricing?

[mount teide] 19/10/2018 18:01

Encouraging that with the share price up 165% since listing on AIM just over a year ago - Richard continues to keep building up his position at around the current share price with another 780,000 share purchase - he must of sunk close to £1m into TXP to date.

[ileeman] 19/10/2018 17:43

Another significant holdings RNS by some influential backers. No one wonder market makers were bidding for stock.

Now they filled it how long can they keep it this low, not long is my guess. Should be off to a flyer next week, just look back at the effect David Newlands increase in holdings had on shareprice after his order was filled.

[mr. t] 19/10/2018 17:17

Richard Sneller has increased his personal stake in TXP from 3.4% to over 4%.



His day job is as a Partner of Baillie Gifford running their Emerging Markets Growth Fund:



And according to the following article he’s consistenly been in the top 25% of managers in his sector over the last 10 years:

[mr. t] 19/10/2018 15:02

Trinidad's oil sector is boosting the Caribbean economy:



"Average expected growth for the English- or Dutch-speaking Caribbean is 1.9 per cent for 2018, a higher revised figure compared to the August projection and this is mainly due to a more vigorous oil sector in Trinidad and Tobago, the largest economy in the subregion"

Hopefully this recognition will mean continued state and public support for the likes of TXP.

[mr. t] 19/10/2018 13:40

Thanks MT. Here are historical prices TXP has realized as a discount to WTI

Q1 16 - 6%
Q2 16 - 15%
Q3 16 - 10.4%
Q4 16 - 5.9%

Q1 17 - 6.2%
Q2 17 - 5.7%
Q3 17 - 1.3%
Q4 17 - 0.8%

Q1 18 - 6.1%
Q2 18 - 9.0%

We don't know what cut Paria may get on TXP's sales, but I understand the price TXP will receive is linked to the price Paria will get on the open market.

So if Paria get better than expected prices that should be good for TXP. We will see more money coming into TXP's coffers.

For reference WTI averaged $68.03 in Q2 this year, $69.76 in Q3 and $73.84 Q4 to date.

[mount teide] 19/10/2018 12:45

T&T Govt announces new company's - Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd and Paria Fuel Trading Company - which will handle Petrortin's exploration and production and trading and marketing, respectively.




'Khan said a vesting order was being prepared to transfer Petrotrin’s exploration and production assets to Heritage and the terminal, port and pier assets to Paria. There will also be an assignment of exploration and production licences under the name of Petrotrin at the Ministry of Energy to Heritage.

“The transformation process is well on its way and going smoothly,” Khan said. The government hopes to have the new companies operationalized by the end of this year, he said. “All things being equal, 2019 will be a brand new year for the energy sector in TT,” he said. As it stands, all operations are still continuing under the name of Petrotrin. Khan added that all timelines are on schedule for the import and export of fuel and crude oil. The first shipment of fuel is expected around October 22-24 and the first crude export will be October 30-November 1. Neither Khan nor his Cabinet colleague Communications Minister Stuart Young could verify if Petrotrin had indeed retained a supplier for fuel. Khan said the company was “very close if not there already” when asked by reporters for the status, while Young said, given the information provided “I’m sure they have a supplier by now.”

Regardless, Khan said there would be a “seamless transition for the supply” of liquid fuel, liquid petroleum gas (LPG or cooking gas) and bitumen, and the country has a 20-day buffer supply should there be any lapse in delivery time.

Young also said that the price Petrotrin’s crude oil was fetching on the international market was well above the West Texas Intermediate price, the international benchmark price at which the TT budget is pegged. “We thought it would have been less than WTI. It’s even higher than we thought the crude was worth,” Young said.'

[ileeman] 18/10/2018 12:04

Listening to recent interview.

Aswell as more production wells being complete over next couple months, they are also targetting a prospect in Q2 that could hold 300million barrels. Huge numbers.

[brasso3] 17/10/2018 22:29

and 100k at 20.7p

[novicetrade68] 17/10/2018 16:00

A 200k buy at 21p.

[ileeman] 17/10/2018 08:40

A couple of those buys this morning are mine.

Suprised more people are not taking advantage....how long until 30p?

[captainfatcat] 17/10/2018 07:43

Having a look over TRINs rns today I noticed that they mention that when they drill two wells from the same pad completion can only occurred once both are drilled.

With this in mine probably the same will apply when TXP drills two wells from the same pad in the WD-8 block later this year.

[mount teide] 17/10/2018 01:04

Entering Q4/2018 at 2,000 bpd(with contributions from up to 8 more wells before year end) and with Brent averaging $83.25 Q4 to date, the company is well positioned to potentially deliver a step change improvement in cash flow generation in Q4 compared to Q3. (Q4 Production is ahead by +15% and Brent by +9.5% to date over Q3 - if maintained to year end at just an average of 2,015 bopd, this combination would lift gross revenue by circa 26% over Q3)

Brent average Prices - since the recession $28 low in H1/2016
$39.00 - H1/2016
$48.50 - H2/2016
$51.50 - H1/2017
$56.50 - H2/2017
$70.50 - H1/2018
$76.00 - Q3/2018
$83.25 - Q4/2018 to date

[wanobi] 15/10/2018 14:45

Mr. T, no worries, thanx, I found your post helpful, cheers Wan

[mr. t] 15/10/2018 14:04

Hmmm....I wish I hadn't written the last post. It looks like Costax1654x isn't interested in TXP.

[mr. t] 15/10/2018 14:02

Costax1654x, fair enough point on profitability - although historic profitability is less important than future profitability, and asset value creation.

TXP did make CA$3.7m profit in H1 at the pre-tax level, but a CA$0.6m net loss post tax. However, CA$3.3m of tax was deferred due to the capital program and won't be paid for some time. This is why cash flow (before drilling investment) is positive.

Given q4 2018 looks much better than q3, which looks marginally better than q2, which was better than q1 - I'm confident you'll see profitability improve and we'll see a positive EPS for the year.

By the time we know 2018 EPS though, I predict investors will only be caring about 2019's strong cash flow and the huge potential of Ortoire.

[grannyboy] 15/10/2018 13:56

Ho dear, costax....this from someone who was pumping DISH to high heaven only for it to halve in value...

You have as much credibility for giving investment advice as jeremy corbyn has on promoting capitalism!!!

FOOL..

[costax1654x] 15/10/2018 13:48

It might even fall more !On this dodgy market with dodgy directors profit is the key!

[costax1654x] 15/10/2018 13:42

They need to make profit!!!In fact they can have 100000 barrels per day without to make profit is overvalued