Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 06/10/2018 19:59

Spangle : Corosan - Carapal Ridge pipeline question - many thanks for your very helpful reply.

'By the end of the fourth quarter of 2002, construction of the gas processing facilities at Carapal Ridge-1 (CR-1) was completed and an 11.5 kilometre, 10-inch pipeline connecting the well into the National Gas Company (NGC) grid at the Trinity metering station was installed. The plant was constructed and brought into service for US $2.4 million and the pipeline was constructed for US $2.1 million.

So you'd need to halve this cost for half the length to Corosan, at least double it for price escalation over that period, at least halve this result again for a smaller diameter, and then correct for any terrain issues that would make a Corosan line easier or harder to install than the export flowline from Carapal.'

[mr roper] 06/10/2018 19:22

Super post, MT. The next couple of weeks shall hopefully be very rewarding for Asiamet holders, while the next 5-10 years most certainly will.

[wanobi] 06/10/2018 17:20

MT, what a post, awesome, hope you don't mind,,, I just had to copy it into my 'wanobi & AAZ' learning thread today as I've been discussing CAML, TXP & JSE with KS all day.... cheers Wan

[mount teide] 06/10/2018 16:58

When researching Industrial Metal and O&G equity investment ideas, two friends and i(all 40 year senior management veterans of the global supply chain industry - shipping/ports) have refined our approach over the decades such that we now place an extremely high investment case weighting on the following:

1 - Stage of the commodity cycle

2 Career track record of Management
3 Management response/answers to some very direct questions
4 Quality and growth potential of the the assets/business

Other than in the most exceptional of circumstances we now only invest in the recovery stage of the highly cyclical commodity markets(as we don't short) - therefore the first item on the above list is of critical importance.

The one exception we made during the industrial metals sector recession between 2010 and H2/2016 was CAML - which incredibly, during the last 8 years, 6 of them a severe recession that decimated the sector, returned an almost unbelievable 20% CAGR - while nearly all other miners generated negative returns.

Number 2 - We only invest in proven senior management who can demonstrate outstanding success in a previous commodity cycle recovery stage.

Number 3 - We ask some extremely direct questions of management both eye to eye and via written correspondence. We expect them to respond by being open and not getting offended by our directness and by providing as much information as is possible within market rules. One CEO, a hard nosed businessman who shall remain nameless was magnificent and actually said; "I am not at all offended by your questions, its your hard earned money, in your shoes i would be asking exactly the same questions!". Needless to say we have been long term investors in his business which continues to go from strength to strength.

Number 4 - While very important, it has a slightly lower weighting than 2 & 3 on the list. Outstanding management in a recovery stage of a commodity cycle can often deliver a much better investment return for their shareholders with average/good quality assets to work with than a modest/inexperienced/poor management can with extremely high quality assets.

Give an outstanding, highly experienced and successful management team with the triumphs and scars of a few long term commodity market cycles etched deeply into their backs, great assets to work with in a new commodity market recovery stage and, the risk/reward for exceptional shareholder returns is potentially excellent.

The most outstanding company's/management's to pass muster with respect to our highly demanding small/mid cap investment case requirements in this new commodity market recovery stage are (in addition to CAML): ARS / TXP / JSE

Some have assets that are potentially world class with exceptional growth prospects - in the hands of outstanding management such assets have the potential to deliver extraordinary returns as was seen during the last commodity cycle when during a long period of modest supply deficits between 2000 and 2008, one management team grew the market cap of Oxiana Metals 2,000 fold from a $3m junior to an an almost unbelievable $6bn large cap and another built an O&G company from scratch to a highly profitable and valuable 20,000 bopd business; while another generated between USD7 – 10 billion of net present value to a company.


As former all time great Olympic athlete Michael Johnson recently said, give an outrageously talented athlete(management) with one in a billion genetics exposure to even a modest programme of chemical assistance(assets with world class potential to work with) as the East German State did to their superstar athlete Marita Koch in the 1980's and, the results are so far off the charts due to the exceptionally high natural talent starting point, that you end up with almost impossible to believe superhuman performances like her 400 metres WR(2,000 fold market cap increases) "that will probably stand the test of time for at least another 100 years without ever being troubled."



AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 06/10/2018 13:28

Good to see many more shares going to sticky hands like Mr T and the Newlands.

Current TSX price of $0.35 is the highest since early 2015.

There's a beautiful deep bowl forming on the 5 year TSX Chart with H1/2016 predictably showing as the bottom($0.10) - target:CAN$1 / £0.60p

Euroclear's latest Stock on Loan Report(Short Position) shows a ZERO figure for TXP.

[wanobi] 06/10/2018 13:02

800K more, blimey MrT. how many have you got in total?

makes my 25K look pitiful :-)

best of luck to us both,,, boy that's some statement of confidence in TXP..

thanx for sharing that, cheers Wan

[mr. t] 06/10/2018 12:40

Thanks Lauders, and good luck with Amer!

[lauders] 06/10/2018 12:26

So do I Mr. T! Wish you the best. My holding is nothing compared to that but when funds come my way I may look to top-up on any weakness. At the moment I am hoping AMER might make a decent move and allow me to perhaps switch into more TXP. Only time will tell.

[awise355] 06/10/2018 12:19

Big numbers

[mr. t] 06/10/2018 12:16

In total I bought circa 800k more TXP shares this last week. Fingers crossed it's a good decision.

[mount teide] 05/10/2018 15:39

L2: 1 v 3 / 21.0p v 22.0p

Flirting strongly with a post H1/2016 recession high.

[mount teide] 05/10/2018 15:21

L2: 2 v 4 / 20.4p v 22.0p

[junky monkey] 05/10/2018 15:04

Up over 6% in Toronto now.

Looking forward to leaving these low price levels behind.

[mr. t] 05/10/2018 14:31

Based on previous months, I expect we'll get an operational update either next week or the week after.

Let's hope the teething problems from recent drills have been resolved and a chunk on new oil has come online.

[mount teide] 05/10/2018 14:16

L2 strengthening: 2 v 3 / 20.0p v 21.0p (rest on 21.6p and above)

[mount teide] 05/10/2018 13:43

Rapidly rising production, falling operating costs per barrel, most SPT offset by a continuous drilling campaign in a $80 - $90 oil price environment should't even test the maths skills of Dianne Abbott as to what this will mean in terms of cash flow development.

Mr T and David & Monique Newlands clearly had no trouble working it out.

[crooky1967] 05/10/2018 11:46

Totally doing the right thing and drilling as much as possible while cash is coming in, will mean that if there is a downturn in Oil prices then debt will be manageable. Can't see oil coming down anyway unless either Iran or Trump back down and I can't see that happening.

[walter walcarpets] 05/10/2018 11:43

ping - must be new highs coming soon.

[brasso3] 05/10/2018 11:43

This will be at 25p once the 2000 BOPD is confirmed.

[tektonik] 05/10/2018 11:41

Yeah, spot on mr.t. A higher oil price serves only as an accelerator to maximise on the existing assets and development of new ones, i.e. Ortoire.

[mr. t] 05/10/2018 11:06

I've continued to buy, increasing my TXP holding by more than 50% over the last few days and it is now my second largest holding.

Spangle and Fardels Bear are right to caution about relying on higher oil prices. But I do think the current Brent price - when combined with increasing production - will provide the extra cashflow to answer questions about how Touchstone's ambitious drilling plans will be funded.

I believe potential investors will more and more see that TXP's debt is manageable, its investment plans shrewd, and its cash flow generation impressive. Then, they'll see that TXP is undervalued compared to peers and fundamentals. Finally, investors will want a piece of the Ortoire upside as drilling gets closer.

All good news for current share holders.

[spangle93] 05/10/2018 03:36

Just a wee bit of historic information to chuck into the mix

Ref Carapal Ridge

The sales gas is delivered to Petrotrin's refinery at Point-a-Pierre for use as fuel gas. The gas pipeline has a design capacity to facilitate full-scale field development. The 10-inch pipeline is capable of transporting in excess of 180 million cubic feet per day of natural gas at the operating pressure of the plant.

Gross production from this well during the second quarter 2003 averaged 17.6 mmcf/d and 469 bbls/d of condensate. The well has deliverability of approximately 100 mmcf/d, but is restricted to current sales contract volumes.


Meanwhile,
@Mount Teide, ref pipeline question last week
By the end of the fourth quarter of 2002, construction of the gas processing facilities at Carapal Ridge-1 (CR-1) was completed and an 11.5 kilometre, 10-inch pipeline connecting the well into the National Gas Company (NGC) grid at the Trinity metering station was installed. The plant was constructed and brought into service for US $2.4 million and the pipeline was constructed for US $2.1 million.

So you'd need to halve this cost for half the length to Corosan, at least double it for price escalation over that period, at least halve this result again for a smaller diameter, and then correct for any terrain issues that would make a Corosan line easier or harder to install than the export flowline from Carapal.

[wanobi] 04/10/2018 15:40

thanx MT, should be moving on up then!! cheers Wan

[mount teide] 04/10/2018 15:31

L2: 1 v 1 / 20.0p v 20.8p (rest on 21.0p or above) + 1.0p / (5.1%)

Vol today: 763k / (Monthly average daily volume: 297k)