Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 26/9/2018 20:06

Since i have ross on filter - i presume from the comments of HG and crooky, he is asking why i only post the full offer side of the L2 Book.

Basically, its because 99% of equity investors are long only investors - and so would be more interested in what that side of the book is looking like since many like me often look to average up on pull backs as the investment case strengthens.

[crooky1967] 26/9/2018 18:53

Rossannan - why the the hell would he when most right minded holders want to attract investors in a company we have shares in. What a pathetic question.

[highly geared] 26/9/2018 18:42

Optimism bias; it’s what makes the world go round...

[mount teide] 26/9/2018 14:57

L2 strengthening: 4 v 1 / 16.0p v 17.0p (2 x 17.5p, 2 x 18.0p)

[mr. t] 26/9/2018 13:25

MT, I haven't looked at trin in detail but I believe investors have to take responsibility themselves. If trin mislead and investors don't do their own due diligence, so fall for it, that's the investors fault.Equally, investors who look at Txp's financial situation will see that TXP's investment plans are manageable from existing resources. If they choose to believe silly scare stories about imminent placings that's their problem.

[captainfatcat] 26/9/2018 12:48

MT probably a wise move on TRIN I feel the share price is going to trade side ways for a while with any rise sold into as placing money looks for exits.

Also a head and shoulder chart pattern looks ominous, should it play out sub 15p looks likely.

[mount teide] 26/9/2018 10:45

Mr T - i noticed that and as a TRIN and TXP shareholder have emailed TRIN management asking for an explanation/clarification.

As you allude to it smacks of disingenuous behaviour at best since it could be considered as an attempt to mislead the Market which is illegal under AIM Regulation.

[mr. t] 26/9/2018 10:28

Looks like Trin has taken TXPs FY 2017 netbacks as their comparator. That's cheeky and misleading.

[mount teide] 26/9/2018 10:14

What did not read well in the Trin results update for me was that the production development programme would not be self financing from cash flow for at least 18 months ie until into 2020.

Liquidated a further half of my remaining holding - less than impressed with the recent hugely discounted placing and modest results performance - the share price going sideways for 18 months while oil has more than doubled has been extremely disappointing.

TRIN is increasingly resembling a Caribbean lifestyle company being managed by and for the Directors.

[captainfatcat] 26/9/2018 10:03

Crooky good spot on TXP netback, TRIN look to be implying it roughly 35% lower than it should be going by their graph.

[the big fella] 26/9/2018 09:40

Captain - remind me of how much cash TRIN has and how much debt TXP has? That may well explain the disparity.

[crooky1967] 26/9/2018 09:37

Mmmm - Bit dubious those figures. Corporate Netback for TXP H1 2018 was CND $38 (USD $29) so why is Trinity showing under $20 for TXP on page 7. Or am I reading it incorrectly?

[captainfatcat] 26/9/2018 09:29

Page 6 of the new Trin presentation is interesting its a peer comparative to help visualize relative value to peers to emphasise TRIN growth potential. Given Trin market cap even after the recent slide is circa $68M in comparison TXP market cap circa $21M to my mind it shines a light on just how undervalued TXP to its peers.

The heading is Peer Comparatives (UK AIM Listed Production Led)

There are three graphs

EV/20 ($/boe)
EV Current Production ($/boepd)
Corporate Netback ($/boe)

[lord gnome] 26/9/2018 08:54

Ten years from now TXP will have a placing and Rossy will be here saying ‘I told you so.’ Nice day today Rossy, you really should get out a bit. 😀

[captainfatcat] 26/9/2018 08:47

Yes and interestingly that is exactly what they have been doing.

[mr. t] 25/9/2018 13:26

Ross, I have already looked at WTI. TXP uses Brent as a benchmark because it’s more correlated to realized price than WTI.

WTI gives a poor benchmark. E.g. in Q4 2017 there was a 0.8% discount to WTI. In Q1 2016 it was 16%. I’ve not seen realized prices fluctuate as much as that compared to Brent, and nor has the company - hence why they describe discounts to Brent.

[mr. t] 25/9/2018 13:02

Ross, what do you consider the usual discount to Brent to be? Here are the recent figures:

Q1 2017 - 9.7%
Q2 2017 - 8.2%
Q3 2017 - 8.8%
Q4 2017 - 10.8%
Q1 2018 - 11.7%
Q2 2018 - 17.1%

There’s a clear widening in the discount received in the last two quarters, showing TXP hasn’t been getting the full benefit of the increase in oil price. If you did the numbers as a % of WTI the you’d see a similar pattern (though less extreme).

I understand that the price TXP receives for its crude is linked to the price Petrotrin sells its refined products for. Hopefully there is a lag in the price of refined products compared to the increased price of crude, so the discount to Brent will narrow this quarter. But maybe not - Petrotrin’s refinery problems suggests they are not selling their products for a good price.

The realized price discount to Brent is something I’ll look at keenly in the next results. I like TXP as an investment, but I don’t like having a foreign national monopoly being able to determine the price received for Touchstone's oil.