Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[spangle93] 09/9/2024 19:39

Red - I'm not an apologist for the company, but at the risk of repeating myself, the two producing wells at the moment were exploration wells, drilled with the intention of intersecting deeper targets, and with the expectation of oil (at least in well 1). They were plugged back after problems, and perforated over a reduced zone that they felt would flow without damaging the integrity of the well.

Development wells can be planned with the knowledge and experience of the pressure, the Herrera geology, the bits, mud, and cement, and all that jazz, that have been used before, with the primary purpose of production. If they believe sand production will be a red flag, they could even complete the wells with sand screens, rather than running casing and perforating it.

I'm not saying these two new wells will be perfect, or gush, though fingers crossed that they do. What I'm trying to share is that at least they are designed and executed with production as the primary goal, unlike the first two ones that, despite being exploration/appraisal to learn about the hydrocarbon potential and meet the licence obligations, added significant reserves and delivered sufficient production to pay for themselves.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 09/9/2024 16:35

"Agree red regarding ongoing CAPEX etc however they have already spent a large amount/vast majority of CAPEX required at Cas to get it to 200mmscfd"Really? What about the number of wells they will need to drill to get it to (and keep it at) at 200mmscfd? And remember that the CAPEX you are talking about was largely funded with debt that has (as is the way of these things) to be repaid.

[johnoxxx] 09/9/2024 13:30

Agree red regarding ongoing CAPEX etc however they have already spent a large amount/vast majority of CAPEX required at Cas to get it to 200mmscfd. Also at coho the same, so whether they drill more at coho or the exploration targets nearby they do have that facility as well to feed into (subject to what they find!)

[redartbmud] 09/9/2024 13:26

All that I can add is that t'would be nice to have a stready flow of oil or gas, better still both, from the existing/producing wells on which to base a financial model going forward.
One is aware that there is still a sizeable mortgage at the bank to finance and that there is an ongoing capex and remediation expense to develop the assets and address the flow problems.

Not asking for much, just better clarity.
Trying to value the business at present is like walking through treacle.

red

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 09/9/2024 12:56

Where is the steady production? After only 10 months they have already had to do a recompletion! There may be steady production eventually (I never suggested otherwise, which is why I talked about a long tail), but you do not know what level it will be at. This is about whether TXP represents a silly risk for TRIN shareholders, compared to cash.

[johnoxxx] 09/9/2024 12:32

Arlington clearly your favorite word is ferocious! So after these ferocious declines what about the production that is left over? Producing significant cash to TXP… you also fail to mention that if wells come on at 20-30mmscfd and have your famous ferocious decline they could still settle and steadily produce at 10-15 mmscfd PER WELL. Hence the drill bit will be turning at Cas again shortly- funded by these ferocious declines..

You fail to mention the steady production you suggest that the wells are going to be dry after the ferocious decline and your one sided arguments are misleading. That’s why people will block you, as your points are one sided and often they are misleading. And I think everyone will agree you’re not doing this for the good of the shareholders and out the kindness of your heart to save all the trin and TXP shareholders. Like you are claiming too!
Pull the other one!

[kaos3] 09/9/2024 12:11

about term i used - pockets of gas and was explained no pockets

well in my simple mind cracs matrix is just that - pockets of gas. a big one time high pressure high flow go. naive terminology and i know i am wrong in expert lingo.

and are cracs connected....
probably not because if - the drop would be slower.

so - all is just fine. we have good draining cracs system which will not clog the equipment with the sand as much as without cracs /trin had problems with sand in the pumps as far as i can remember/ - just by perforatians into the sandstone

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 09/9/2024 11:43

Look at it this way. Trinidad is a pin cushion of shallow wells. Not so many deeper wells, but there have been quite a few in the past. So when AIM outfits decide to go a bit deeper it is legitimate to ask them why they think no one else has drilled to that depth in a particular location in recent years. Yes, technology has improved, but perhaps their predecessors grasped an essential truth about the geology of Trinidad - it is basically a bit random and unreliable when you go deeper. That certainly seems to be the recent experience of both TXP and TRIN and it is why I would argue that heavily indebted TXP is such a risky proposition and that these next two wells may not be straightforward development wells. But even if they do get the clones they are looking for, tell me that the declines will not be just as ferocious.

[dunderheed] 09/9/2024 11:38

38055, I'm actually with that view. It is very very rare I actually filter someone, only because you can always learn something, from the "weirdest" of sources.
I did tick up EC though, as I am the king of TXP doubters (except maybe a nod to under) although, do see good risked value at this price and juncture because, as "Clown" as the management obviously are here (I don't think anyone can seriously dispute that anymore), I hope that they cannot f up a relatively straight forward onshore (please note that word!) development as Casca?!
All IMHO, DYOR.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 09/9/2024 11:32

I think you mean EggChaser.

[aqc888] 09/9/2024 11:26

Arlington, whilst I agree his views are one sidedly negative and that he does seem to be nursing some grudge of some kind. I would point out that his negativity has been proven correct fairly consistently on the Trin board. Filtering people with opposing views and stifling debate will ultimately cause harm to your ability to fully understand the risks. I’d suggest an irritatingly negative viewpoint on an investment you hold should be the one that has most value. Although his last post does require some patience I would agree

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 09/9/2024 11:16

You can shout for the censor to step in, or you could try a counter argument. If you are invested here you should have some kind of argument you can deploy. If not, what are you doing with your money in here in the first place? But by all means put your fingers in your ears and go la, la, la, la, la, I can’t hear you.

[eggchaser] 09/9/2024 10:10

Taxi for Arlington me thinks...Filtered... That's better and highly recommended...!

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 09/9/2024 08:52

As TRIN stands, even with its awful BoD and somewhat impaired assets, it is a far less risky proposition than TXP, which could as easily lose long-suffering TRIN shareholders the rest of their money as see them recoup at least some of their losses. That annoys me. These guys have done their time and should be set free by LO.

[dunderheed] 09/9/2024 08:49

Yes I was wondering who that new "cove" was?!
Whilst I do like the cut of his jib, I do believe he may be trying to surpass me, as the TXP "moaner/critic" which could cause "problems"?!

[che7win] 09/9/2024 08:46

I was transparent in everything I did and why I did it, get over it.

[che7win] 09/9/2024 08:45

The risk is with TRIN, I was very happy to switch out at the perfect time in 50s and 60s and buy TXP back on the cheap.You need to realise the risk that TRIN shareholders have being stuck with an LOL offer that doesn't go through or fails.Whilst watching TXP share price rising every week which it's doing.And missing out on selling TRIN and buying TXP at better than 1.5 share offer.TXP can walk away, upside is in TXP and I have picked up 100k arbitraging.Cheers.

[johnoxxx] 09/9/2024 08:42

Why let it bother you so much it’s their own choice and won’t affect you anyway..

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 09/9/2024 08:40

What annoys me is the idea of TRIN shareholders with a cash offer the table choosing instead the risks of TXP, as perennially downplayed on here by the likes of che7win.

[johnoxxx] 09/9/2024 08:20

Arlington you’re very concerned about TXP aren’t you considering you don’t have an investment here? The price going up seems to annoy you?

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 09/9/2024 07:53

Due this month - calm down.

[che7win] 09/9/2024 07:46

Big announcement due, watch this space.

[bigalan3] 09/9/2024 07:31

A lot of buying today. Somebody knows something?