Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[grafter] 13/8/2024 21:48

- digs in heels over bid as profits soar

[spangle93] 13/8/2024 16:31

che7win "Pressure is still there." Well, maybe at Casc C

Otherwise why has the flowrate declined?

[awise355] 13/8/2024 16:05

If the next 4 wells all perform broadly the same then we should plateau around 15,000boepd. 3 times now but profit should be higher than 3 times as cost as covered with probably 4,500boepd

[awise355] 13/8/2024 15:48

Nice strong finish.

[che7win] 13/8/2024 14:16

Reservoir boundary is still unknown.Pressure is still there.

[swanvesta] 13/8/2024 13:58

I remember when the Cascadura wells were drilled, they were ecstatic about the flow rates and pressure drop-off. IIRC they couldn't detect a reservoir boundary. To a layman like me that doesn't seem to jive (it's Trinidad, mon) with what they're now saying about a low permeability fracture system. Is it really the case that they couldn't predict such a rapid decline from those first few days of production?

[chrysalis99] 13/8/2024 12:33

If they have to drill more wells, combined with the higher decline rates, there will be less cashflow and hence a lower valuation for the company and share price. That isn't a good reason to be sanguine about the latest news imv.

[spangle93] 13/8/2024 12:14

kaos - no ouch intended
I only found that document at 10am this morning, when I was looking for the SEDAR submissions ;-)

[dunderheed] 13/8/2024 11:59

37932 I'm sure the details are positive but it is turning the theory into reality, through trial and error which will determine, if they are successful? IMHO.

[dunderheed] 13/8/2024 11:55

Well Che 37931, hang on and further to my points in 37928, to say all they've got to do is "simply" drill more wells is a little "Clownish" is it not?
That is the theory but it is not yet proven (through multiple successful wells being drilled and subsequent learning curves) and I'm sure will require a lot of relevant reservoir expertise onboard, not generally found working for micro cap explorers? Often successful good experts like that are, a sought after and hard to find expensive commodity?!
As ever all IMHO, DYOR.

[spawny100] 13/8/2024 11:49

If the details were positive then they probably would have elaborated imo.

[che7win] 13/8/2024 11:47

Yes, it would be helpful if they elaborated more on the details.

[kaos3] 13/8/2024 11:33

sp93 - fair comment ... but not all of us read every published document on the topic every time....

hence the BBs

are about cooperation, exchanging views etc ...

which you did

imho

but ouch heh heh

my above comment derives from the observation that -
only cca 20 % or less of production (different gas liquids? are not in override royalties scheme) is impacted by override royalties, production even decreased to some degree Q to Q and that the oil prices quater to quater were in the same price range more or less - but royalties increased by 2 %

[flyinghorse1] 13/8/2024 10:55

Chetwin- re 37927 -They should have referenced that as the market & folk have short memories.
I expect then to see this theory/analysis endorsed by their reserves auditors and TXP show production profiles openly in presentations demonstrating their findings.

I want proof -not smoke blown up my ass.

[dunderheed] 13/8/2024 10:24

Che7 37927. I don't disagree but if they knew the impact back then, why didn't they bring to market via RNS then?
I am no legal eagle and this is all IMHO and can absolutely see POV re NR letters yesterday but there is a potential opposing view of TRIN irrevocable holders, which may have stated that these decisions were "tied" to information publicly available at that time, re Production profiles etc which has now materially changed and TXP should have highlighted this earlier in the process? So, on the one hand they've "changed their mind" late in the game but on the other (it could be said) TXP have changed their initial public guidance, late in the game as well.
I obviously am assuming nothing at all was shared outside of the public domain during these negotiations as well, of course, as that is completely different catastrophic tin of worms.
As I say all IMHO, DYOR and sometimes things arent as clear cut as they initially look?

[che7win] 13/8/2024 10:06

It has been already explained 3 months ago in May:

"Based on our analysis to date, including higher than expected initial decline rates as compared to pre-production models, the wells are exhibiting a dual porosity/permeability system which indicate that production is derived from both sand porosity/permeability as well as a fracture porosity system. A fracture porosity system can deliver high initial production rates and pressure which can decline quickly while sand matrix porosity/permeability may deliver at lower production rates for longer periods of time."

So it just means they will drill more Wells, and each well produces at very high initial rates, then they decline and plateau to being a cash producer for the next 20 years.
Big deal! Each well is paying for themselves in a few months.

I'm very happy with today's news, market is slowly catching on to the ramp up and the long term cash flow.

[spangle93] 13/8/2024 09:45

kaos - see Table 7 in this documentt


Better that that - read the document, and then post your thoughts on this website :-)

[flyinghorse1] 13/8/2024 09:06

I think to state this and not explain it beggars belief:

"Our year-to-date 2024 Cascadura field production has experienced higher declines than anticipated in our preliminary 2024 guidance"

[kaos3] 13/8/2024 08:58

probably the reason.... i did not think that sensitivity is so high and impactfull

[sleveen] 13/8/2024 08:42

Royalties change with production volumes and price.

[kaos3] 13/8/2024 08:37

I find this report kind of different writing style. Better. And I feel it was pushed on to them ... and if so it is good. Concentration on cash production , highest return on capex is also good. Attitude is hopefully changing.

Not much said about trin and corporate structure.

good roe and reasonable PE too, specially considering the production growth - not depending on exploration.

What I do not understand is:


Royalties as a % of petroleum and natural gas sales(2)


%


21.5


19.5


How come did royalties as a percentage increased ... i thought it was fixed number more or less, because the production mix did not change much.

[dunderheed] 13/8/2024 07:55

37915, Red absolutely but here's hoping recognition at last what should be prioritised and hopefully let's see some BoD "actions" post AGM RNS.
Shame they didn't revise their Casca estimates down a little earlier because I think everyone and their dog was aware of these errrr"limitations", however, here's hoping at long last things may be changing, heavily caveated with expectations around BoD structure above being pretty swiftly implemented?
As ever all IMHO. DYOR and best of luck to all.

[ashkv] 13/8/2024 07:43

Perhaps finally the wall of cash :) :)

awise35513 Aug '24 - 08:37 - 37916 of 37918
0 1 0
I look forward to exit rates going into April 2025

[ashkv] 13/8/2024 07:42

Is this PB's ADVFN handle? Please get off the Kool Aid!!!

che7win13 Aug '24 - 08:18 - 37914 of 37917
0 7 0
Askv,
I don't think getting to 13,500 boepd by year end is standing still.
Nor is getting to my estimate - 20k boepd by end of Q1 2025 standing still.

Irrational sellers today, you make your quick trade after deramping.