Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[spangle93] 13/9/2018 02:03

Ross - what, nothing about Bury St Edmunds? I'm gutted. ;-)

Ref your theory of raising money "just in case things are tight". The optics for doing this need to be considered.

Look at MATD. They were fully funded for their 2018 program of 4 wells - 2 rank wildcats, 2 low risk appraisals - but opportunistically and out of the blue raised more before the first exploration well was spudded to increase funds for 2019 wells at an acceptable price. The immediate perception was that they had no confidence in the exploration wells coming in and (fair enough, it's about a 1 in 8 chance) so the price fell immediately to, and remains at, 20% below that placing level.

[mount teide] 13/9/2018 01:43

Some highlights from the presentation:

2018
Production Development Plan - 14 wells (8 drilled / 5 on production / 6 to be drilled)

2019
Production Development Plan - 15 wells

Exploration Programme - 4 wells (Corosan(Gas) / Balata West(Oil) / Central North(Gas) plus one other.

Using 2018 drill cost as guidance - estimated cost of 15 wells x US$800k = US$12m.

First two Ortoire 10,000ft+ wells - estimated cost of US$4-5m each = US$8-10m

Company has worked closely with Shell, the owners of the Central Block Gas Field and LNG Terminal who have kindly shared their well data from Carapal Ridge - the Corosan prospects are just 2-3km away.

Corosan will be the location of the first well to be drilled since it can be quickly and cheaply tied into Shell's nearby pipeline system running to the LNG terminal. The well will twin a well previously drilled at Corosan in 2001 which tested at 8.2mmcfd from the upper zone, before being abandoned since there was no gas processing facilities/infrastructure on the Island at the time. The potential reserves being targeted with the first well is equivalent to the total current reserves of the company.

Company currently has $12m in cash and is generating roughly $2m a month cash flow.

[spangle93] 12/9/2018 23:44

Ross - You're clearly an intelligent, articulate, and informed person who contributes a valid view to this BB. I think that's the issue though - you do only contribute one view.

Taking you at your word that you've bought in, then there must have been a compelling reason for you to do so, despite your concerns about money raising. Why not post about any these compelling reasons for a change? Or the weather in Trinidad? Or Bury St Edmunds - I'm sure there's much I could learn about it? Just something other than a single theme.

I think most balanced posters on this quality board would agree that yes, there might be an equity raise. The high oil price (and strong USA dollar) together with growing production mean the organic revenue generation is higher, reducing that likelihood from month to month. Furthermore, it would mean that any raising that may be required e.g. for Ortoire, as it your theme would be negotiated from a position of strength (no deep discount) and would be increasingly small (less dilution).

But that's based on stated forward plans, Trinidad operating environment and current performance. No investor knows anything like the full picture for the company. There may indeed be reasons why money is needed. Mr Baay is an economist and AFAICT appears to be a prudent manager who doesn't raise money willy-nilly. So if it's in the company's medium to long term interest to raise funds, I think the board would sanction it. It wouldn't in principle be a bad thing. So we understand what you're saying; it's not necessary to say it so often.

Just please, widen the scope of your posts. TIA

[crooky1967] 12/9/2018 23:28

Current cash flow is going to pay for the 6 wells to be drilled this year and they have 10m in the bank. With the 2019 drilling campaign I would expect to be near 2600 bopd by mid 2019. If oil prices are where they now and with $40+ netback then that pays for Ortoire couple of drills at least.

[fardels bear] 12/9/2018 23:16

I'm so bored with you I sold up yesterday and bought 20,000 more PMG.

[roundup] 12/9/2018 22:11

Rossannan, even if there happens to be a placing (which I very much doubt) The fact that you are obsessed about it means nothing. You are not in any better position to predict what will happen than anybody else, so stop the whingeing.

[mount teide] 12/9/2018 17:25

ross - you are increasingly at risk of coming across as a nickel and dime trader, seemingly petrified of losing a small amount on any trade.

At the risk of repeating myself, i'm invested for where i expect the valuation to be in 2-3 years time.

I am happy to entrust someone with Paul Baay's experience and track record to continue making the high quality assets sweat between now and then.

If he doubles the valuation between now and summer 2020 to 36p, something i consider very achievable, that will have generated a 100% return a year on just my original investment for each of the three years between 2018 and 2020 - versus circa 1.5% a year in a cash ISA.

I expect he will likely do much better with just the core producing assets if the POO continues to average in the $70-$90 range - and see the ultra high impact Ortoire prospects as low risk, high potential further upside in the price largely for free.

Your comments have not really changed from when the share price was 11p - if you had stayed invested, instead of short term trading TXP, like many who regard themselves as investors, you would now be sitting on a much greater return - a lesson that well over 90% of short term traders are still mostly yet to learn.

The penny is still to drop for many as to why hedge funds use trading platform algorithms to routinely swing the s/p's of many small/medium caps up and down by 15-25% on the flimsiest of 'news' or lack of it? They have learned that there is a rich vein of cash to be mined by having lots of short term traders now in the market, trading mostly on leverage, that they can routinely fleece by triggering their fear/relatively tight stops.

A client of my son at a CFD/Spreadbet service provider, is the company's top pro trader - still gets stopped out on circa 60% of all the trades he puts on - demonstrating that for most individuals short term trading is a mugs game, almost certain to end up with losses, or returns below that of buy and hold investors; holding until the fundamentals change significantly for the worse.

AIMHO/DYOR


Brent flirting with $80 again.

[che7win] 12/9/2018 16:13

With Brent now up 78cents and a hairs breath from $80, TXP probably near or over 2000 boepd, this price looks a steal.

[che7win] 12/9/2018 16:09

Even after a terrible placing at atrocious dilution, that dog TRIN is moving up.TXP would need to be at 25p to match it, regardless of what Ross says.

[professor x] 12/9/2018 15:58

Nothing wrong with this chart at the moment ross!!! Only if it breaks the 80 SMA will I be concerned:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[2prsimo] 12/9/2018 15:55

It's clear to me he has a self-made personal rivalry with MT - to see if he can "beat" him in some sort of pathetic intellectual contest or score cheap points by trying to be right all the time - it denotes some kind of personality disorder - don't ask me which kind, I'm not a psychologist - but he clearly has "issues".

[fardels bear] 12/9/2018 15:39

Placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing, placing.

Now, hopefully you're as bored with me as I am with you.

[mount teide] 12/9/2018 13:15

Oil Prices Leap Higher After API Reports Huge Crude Draw - OilPrice.com

'The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a major draw of 8.636 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending September 7, compared to S&P Global Platts analyst expectations that this week would see a draw in crude oil inventories of 2.7 million barrels.'

[mount teide] 12/9/2018 13:00

a355 - With the production development programme heavily weighted to H2, it has the potential to generate a period of strong news-flow over the next 3-4 months.

With the oil price for the quarter currently averaging $74-$75, Q3 results/cash flow should be very strong.