Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[tektonik] 21/9/2018 12:22

Finally decided to buy a piece of the company, potential here is very impressive.

[brasso3] 18/9/2018 22:46

PB confirmed that the reporting is only in CAD$ to due to the TSX listing.

[spangle93] 18/9/2018 22:37

Appreciate you sharing the reply, rossannan.

Interesting switch of currency, though realistically it's hard to believe that any finance related to operations isn't in USD, and that CAD is only used for presentations and reports.

[captainfatcat] 18/9/2018 19:59

Nice to have that clarification ross

[mount teide] 18/9/2018 12:34

From the macro perspective - i'm more with PIMCO who recently put out an economic outlook note saying that their recession indicators are flashing a yellow ‘caution’; signal.

“At this stage in the cycle, investors should consider inflation risk, market dispersion, recession risk and other key factors. While recession indicators are not flashing a red warning signal that a downturn is imminent, which would imply a retreat to a defensive position, they are flashing a yellow ‘caution’; signal.”

The catastrophic fall off in investment of the last 5 years in the oil and copper industries together with declining output at the globally important oil fields and copper mines is what will drive oil and copper pricing over the next decade.

How bad is the declining output problem? Check out Codelco, Chile's and the World's largest copper miner - Codelco recently started a 5 year $25bn production 'development' investment plan at its globally important mines. How much did Codelco tell its shareholders to expect in terms of production increases once it had spent $25bn of their funds? TRY ZERO TONNES!

Incredibly, the worlds largest copper miner has calculated that it needs to spend this vast sum in the hope of just maintaining current production at its mines, such is the impact of rapidly declining ore grades on its business. This is a problem that affects the overwhelming majority of the top 25 global mines, which are currently responsible for over 50% of global copper production.

And should inflation continue to rear its ugly head and take off - market research over many, many decades has shown there has been no better place to shelter your assets than in oil and copper. Particularly when both markets are coming out of 6-8 year recessions while the wider market indexes are at/close to either decade or all-time highs.


AIMHO/DYOR

[sleveen] 18/9/2018 12:06

Brasso3


The shale headline isn't representative of the article's alleged over supply Art Burman is expecting.

If over supply comes to pass then that will trigger a fall in the oil price affecting all oil stocks.

[brasso3] 18/9/2018 07:16

Don't see what that has to do with TXP especially considering we have a market cap. of £22m!

[sleveen] 18/9/2018 07:08

Great commentary on possible reduced oil demand in 2019 from Art Burman

[fozzie] 17/9/2018 10:43

Thanks for that MT (2911) o/t bought some JSE on Friday to add to my list.

[crooky1967] 17/9/2018 09:02

I haven't an issue with Mount Teide's postings, I find them of interest.

[mount teide] 16/9/2018 16:32

As Iranian sanctions start to bite sending oil back to $80 - unabashed Trump has the front to call on the Russians to pump more while under sanctions themselves!


The U.S. Calls On Russia To Cap Soaring Oil Prices - OilPrice.com

As crucial mid-term congressional elections in November draw near, the Trump administration is feeling the heat over higher oil prices. London-traded global oil benchmark Brent breached the $80 per barrel price point on Wednesday, its highest level since May 2. NYMEX-traded U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) reached over $70 per barrel on Wednesday.

While both benchmarks pared gains on Thursday, moving back from four month highs, as investors focused on risk from the ongoing emerging market crises and trade disputes that could trim demand as supply tightens, high oil prices along with corresponding higher gasoline prices in the U.S. have the opportunity to play havoc with Republican hopes to hold onto key seats in November and retain control in Congress. Such a loss would ensure that Trump’s second half in office would face severe uphill battles with possible heightened calls from Democrats for impeachment.

Amid higher oil prices that could easily settle above $80 per, U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry is reaching out to Russia.

“The kingdom (Saudi Arabia), the members of OPEC that are opting their production to be able to make sure that the citizenry of the world does not see a spike in oil price ... are to be admired and appreciated, and Russia is one of them,” Perry said after meeting Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak in Moscow on Wednesday.

The U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia are also working together to make sure the world has access to affordable energy, Perry added.

Reaching out to Russia

In what can arguably be called an act of concession prompted by worries over spiking global oil prices, Perry said he proposed creating a joint investment fund to develop new projects with Russia, adding the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) could be part of such a fund. The RDIF said that it would support such a fund.

The RDIF is Russia’s sovereign wealth fund established in 2011 by Moscow to make equity investments in high-growth sectors of the Russian economy. According to the fund’s website, it has some $10bn of reserved capital management.

The complications in Perry’s overture are obvious. Washington, which has levied numerous crippling sanctions against Russia over a number of issues, ranging from its annexation of Crimea to Moscow’s meddling in U.S. elections, now needs Moscow’s help to reign in spiraling global oil prices. It’s a pivot from merely trying to pressure long-time ally Saudi Arabia over its oil production plans, particularly since the new OPEC, non-OPEC partnership, with Russia, has for all intent and purposes replaced what OPEC could do on its own in the past but has lost, the ability to sway and control global oil prices.

Dubious message

To those in Russia it could also appear to be a dubious message. Sanctions are still in place on Russian oil and gas exploration projects necessary to grow the country’s oil and gas production - the very assistance that Perry is asking for. Russia’s natural resources ministry has already admitted that sanctions have hampered the country’s oil and gas exploration ambitions.

"Sanctions against Russian oil and gas companies, which limit the inflow of foreign investment, new technologies and equipment in the industry complicate the development of new projects in Russia, especially offshore and those directed at hard-to-extract reserves development," the ministry said in the report on the state and use of Russian mineral resources in 2016-2017.

However, Moscow is fighting back by seeking funding for these projects in Chinese RNB or domestic funds, effectively bypassing the use of dollars and the U.S. financial system.

Mixed message

In spite of Perry’s acquiescence toward Russia’s ability to help the Trump administration’;s push to bring down global oil prices, he also came with a mixed message.

Perry also met with Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov. Perry told the officials that the Trump administration opposes Nord Stream 2 because it would concentrate a single route of Russian gas into Europe, “one vulnerable to disruption and risks of over reliance for European customers.”

Nord Stream 2 is a 759 mile (1,222 km) natural gas pipeline running on the bed of the Baltic Sea from Russian gas fields to Germany, bypassing existing land routes over Ukraine, Poland and Belarus. It would double the existing Nord Stream pipeline’s current annual capacity of 55 bcm and is expected to become operational by the end of next year.

The U.S. has long maintained that the pipeline presents security risks to much of Europe and even could even open ways for Russia to install undersea surveillance equipment in the Baltic Sea.

Ulterior motive allegations

Many EU members, particularly Germany as well as Moscow itself, see U.S. resistance to the Nord Stream 2 project as a way for Trump to push American LNG exports into Europe. However, at the end of the day Russian gas is far cheaper than imported U.S. LNG volumes going into Europe and will likely stay that way for decades.

Perry told the Russian officials that the Trump administration welcomes competition on energy from Russia, but “Moscow can no longer use energy as an economic weapon.”

Asked during a joint news conference with his Russian counterpart whether the U.S. might impose punitive measures against Nord Stream 2 and other projects, Perry said, "Yes."

Russia has long countered that the proposed gas pipeline is purely a “commercial project” and will proceed with without U.S. approval.'

[fardels bear] 14/9/2018 21:59

This very much smacks of somebody who is desperate to have the last word.

[mount teide] 14/9/2018 21:19

Oil and Copper's power to shield an investment portfolio from inflation is highly compelling according to recent research by Bloomberg Intelligence: for every 1% increase in US consumer prices since 1992 to 2017, oil and copper's gains have hugely outperformed every other asset class:

28% - Oil
18% - Copper
12% - Industrial Metals
7% - Agriculture
6% - Precious Metals
5% - Gold
2.5% - S&P
1.0% - CPI

Data Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

[mount teide] 14/9/2018 17:04

Fozzie - Last Autumn, in relation to the S&P500 the GSCI/Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (heavily weighted to oil and industrial metals ) started moving up off its lowest level in 50 years.

The GSCI still sits some 120% below its long-term median of 4.1. The highly reliable mathematical principal of mean reversion of markets, strongly suggests it continues to signal a highly attractive investment opportunity over the next 3-5 years.




The previous oil/copper bottom in 1999/2000 was just before a major main market crash, which saw the FTSE drop circa 50% and some 7 years later still remain in correction territory some 20% down.

What did copper and oil do during this 6/7 year period? Go up 498% and 275% respectively as a result of demand continuing at 2-3% a year, while the effects of a massive half decade collapse in production development investment between 1994 -1999 as a result of decade low copper and oil prices came home to roost.

The identical fundamentals are currently repeating themselves: 2013-2018 saw a collapse in copper and oil industry investment which has barely moved up off its 2017 bottom, and is still some 65% down from the 2013 peak. H1/2016 saw copper and oil prices finally bottom after falling for 6-8 years to decade lows.

Demand has continued to roll on at an average of 1.5-2.5% a year - much like it has for the last 50 years, apart from a 6 month lull during the global financial crash.

Future demand for oil and copper is being driven overwhelmingly by the circa 88%, and rising rapidly, of the worlds population not living in Europe or the USA, who don't have massive mortgages on highly overpriced property, credit cards maxed out and expensive car loans to service on incredibly fast depreciating vehicles.

Although oil and copper consumption has dropped significantly in the West over the last few decades, it has been overwhelmed by the increase in demand from the high population Nations - China, India and in SE Asia - which continue to experience massive growth.

Oil consumption has dropped in the USA, Europe and UK during the last 20 years - in the UK it has fallen by circa 10% while in China it has gone up 210% to nearly 13m bopd, some 14 times the TOTAL daily output of the North Sea. In fact, China now has to produce/import an additional 80% of the ENTIRE North Sea output EVERY YEAR just to meet its annual growth in consumption - it therefore comes as no surprise China has decided to rapidly accelerate the pace of electrification from renewables across its transport infrastructure.

Moral of the story? As the above chart shows, Oil and Copper sector investors have a very long history of enjoying main equity market crashes!


AIMHO/DYOR

[wheniamfree] 14/9/2018 16:46

Ross the problem is you also post valid information.

I don’t see the logic in repeatedly asking the same thing, we know your stance and others have also replied to give their view on why they disagree but that should be end of story.

At the end of the day they are two opinions, I personally disagree with you but I wouldn’t sit here and post the same remark constantly. If that is what you believe will happen fine, until it does then just give it a rest and you can perhaps come back and say “I told you so” after the event.

Otherwise you could be sitting here until 2019 posting the same thing over and over. Saying something repeatedly doesn’t mean it will happen.