Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[buffythebuffoon] 04/9/2018 17:53

Paul said today that for the first time in four years he is not going to say he is expecting the abolition of SPT, because he doesn’t see it happening.

Ok, Paul, that might speed it up...

Buffy

[mount teide] 04/9/2018 17:51

Since Brent averaged $95 for 7 years between 2008 and 2015 and $82 for the last decade it was almost inevitable that the POO would return to its long term average range once the Saudi's had drained the market of the excess supply built up by 2015.

The complete dearth of capital expenditure since, other than by the US Shale Oil industry should comfortably support a price range of $75-$95 over the medium term - with the price risk probably skewed to the upside should the supply situation in Iran, Venezuela and Libya continue to deteriorate.

[mount teide] 04/9/2018 16:58

Good to see today's move supported by good volume - 513k - it is greater than the daily average transaction volumes over a week, month, three months and a year.

Daily average transaction volumes:

341k - Week
473k - Month
478k - 3 Month
492k - Year

[captainfatcat] 04/9/2018 16:15

TRS alert then its no wonder the oil is on the up.

[mount teide] 04/9/2018 16:04

Oil jumps as Gulf of Mexico rigs evacuated ahead of Hurricane Gordon - Globe and Mail


'Anadarko Petroleum Corp said on Monday it had evacuated and shut production at two oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the approach of Gordon, which is expected to come ashore as a hurricane.

Global oil markets have tightened over the last month, pushing up Brent prices by more than 10 per cent since the middle of August. Investors anticipate less supply from Iran as U.S. sanctions on Tehran begin to bite.

“With ship-tracking data now pointing at a reduction in Iranian exports, renewed strife in Libya, and Venezuelan export availability hobbled by an accident at the key Jose terminal, the list of bullish headlines is getting longer,” said Michael Dei-Michei, head of research at Vienna consultancy JBC Energy.

Barclays bank said on Tuesday oil markets had changed since 2017, when worries about rising supply were more evident.

“U.S. producers are resisting temptation and exercising capital discipline, OPEC and Russia have convinced market participants they are managing the supply of over half of global production, the U.S. is using sanctions more actively, and several key OPEC producers are at risk of being failed states,” Barclays said. '

[novicetrade68] 04/9/2018 15:53

Max buy quote I get atm is 100 shares for 19.3233p. Anything above goes NT.

[mount teide] 04/9/2018 15:31

L2 - 1 v 1 / 19.0p v 19.5p ( rest on 20.0p - 22.0p )


TXP and TRIN looking very strong today.

[mount teide] 04/9/2018 14:46

l2 - 1 v 1 / 18.5p v 19.0p (1 x 19.5p, 2 x 20.0p , 1 x 21.0p)

[mr. t] 04/9/2018 13:19

ross, you make good points - the cut off is not very rational and there's sense in increasing capital allowances.

However, as long as the regime is not changed unfavorably for producers then I don't really care - TXP are operating nicely for shareholders with things just as they are.

[mount teide] 04/9/2018 12:56

The best example of the power of long term investing is probably Apple - £1000 invested in Apple on listing in 1980 would today be worth circa £10 million a ten thousand percent return over 37 years - equivalent to a CAGR of 54%!

[mr. t] 04/9/2018 12:56

ross, MT, thanks for you comments on hurricanes.

ross, what particular concern have you with the SPT? I get the $50 cut in value isn't helpful, but hopefully $50 isn't a number we'll see for sometime. Otherwise, it seems a reasonable way for the government to capture its share of oil revenue and TXP are successfully operating under the regime.

[mount teide] 04/9/2018 12:45

Mr T - researched the hurricane risk for T&T - it is minimal - 5 hits in the last 85 years for Trinidad and three for Tobago.

[mount teide] 04/9/2018 12:37

Ross - Short term movements in the share price due to small traders buying and selling small caps as a result of trying to micro manage the likely impact of very short term data is one of the reasons the overwhelming majority lose money over the longer term

You're posts strongly suggest you continue to view things from the persecutive of a short term trader - despite the fact most short term traders lose money on over 60% of their trades according to industry research. I've lost count of how many times you have told us you have been in out of this stock - I've never sold a share since commencing buying at circa 8p and averaging up 13 times at prices up to 17p as the investment case strengthened along with the oil price.

I suspect most invested here are not short term traders and are more interested in where the valuation is likely to be next spring following drilling of the first Ortoiure Gas prospects - in the meantime the H2 weighted, high volume, fast tracked production development drilling programme should build a strong and rising valuation foundation into that ultra high impact exploration drilling programme.

[mr. t] 04/9/2018 12:14

Hurricane season is underway in the gulf. Let's hope Trinidad misses out. Here's what the T&T government says about the islands susceptibility to hurricanes...the risk is minimal compared to other Caribbean islands, but still there:Q: Are we Vulnerable to Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones?A: YesTrinidad and Tobago is located in the extreme south of the Caribbean, a position which implies that the country is safe from the impacts of hurricanes and tropical cyclones. This however is not true. While in Trinidad and Tobago the risk to hurricanes is minimal when comparison to other islands in the Caribbean, the potential to be hit by hurricanes still remain, as they have in the past.hTTp://www.odpm.gov.tt/node/21

[mount teide] 04/9/2018 11:43

Paul Baay routinely reports current production as well as historic monthly/quarterly averages in TXP's market updates and during presentations/interviews. As someone who built from scatch a 20,000 bopd oil business - i doubt he has much to learn about running a quoted company in the O&G sector.

With 11 wells scheduled to add to existing production over the next 4/5 months - 2,000 bopd should soon be very much in the rear view mirror.

With Brent again knocking on $80/bbl and Iranian sanctions due to severely ratchet up in November, the timing could not be better to have 11 new infill wells coming into production.