Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 31/8/2018 11:27

ross - TRIN did't drift from the highs on low volume - the volume during the few months before the huge, massively discounted placing was at/close to the highest during any equivalent period in the previous year or, post the placing.

Which smacks of insiders aided and abetted by management and it's PI cheerleaders like you that were continually crowing that the company were ahead of schedule with their debt repayment plan and therefore the inference was that compared to their T&T peers, the of risk of a placing was almost inconceivable.

Those who took the management in good faith and averaged up were soon to learn an extremely expensive lesson - post the placing news, i went from over 100% up with my 800,000 core position to a net break after taking into consideration the losses from a number of averaged up positions in the low 20's (mostly since re-invested in TXP and JSE).

[dunderheed] 31/8/2018 11:10

It was hardly a drift mate!

[mount teide] 31/8/2018 10:03

The average daily transaction volume this week is 248K against a monthly, three monthly and yearly daily average of between 457k and 490k.

The share price trend over the last week or so looks to have been largely the result of small scale selling in a low transaction volume environment - traders exiting as a result of triggering tight trailing stop losses.

There has been seven 15% or greater share price price down moves since TXP came to AIM last summer and yet today the share price is 126% above its listing price - this is the primary reason short term traders have such a poor returns performance record in the small cap sector compared to long term investors who run and average up their winners.

MM's and hedge funds know this very well and treat short term traders as a very rich cash vein to mine. Its the primary reason there is so much volatility in equity markets today but particularly the small cap scene - where long term investors, hedge funds and mm's routinely transfer short term traders investment cash into their own pockets.

The primary reason a few well known short term traders appear to buck the losing trend over the longer term is that they operate mainly in low transaction volume small cap markets and FRONT RUN their own followers/clients, who are generally of sufficient size to often materially move small cap valuations following the pied piper in.

Rest assured the source of most of the wealth these pied pipers of the short term trading industry have generated over their 'investment' careers is the result of taking much larger front run positions with their separate private accounts, which they carefully sell into the buying stampede they generate after announcing each of their new tips.


AIMHO/DYOR

[awise355] 31/8/2018 09:21

Market perhaps projecting some wait for news..low volume. I suspect by mid September we will get an Operational update stating 2k achieved.

[che7win] 31/8/2018 09:02

Strange, when we are about to hit 2000 bopd (which may be announced) and the oil price is close to highs, but thats the market for you.

[deltrotter] 31/8/2018 08:58

1 v 4.

4 market makers sitting at 16.5 and only 1 on 17 at the moment.

Too cheap as it is IMO but could get cheaper until we find buyers again..

[marvelman] 31/8/2018 08:57

...doesn't feel very comfortable just now and have moved more in to TRIN and only have a core holding to add to when the sentiment improves (or my perception of it)

[marvelman] 31/8/2018 08:53

Thanks delboy...L2 info very helpful

[deltrotter] 31/8/2018 08:36

Level 2 looking weaker than I have seen it in ages. Will top up if we get to 15ish

[roundup] 31/8/2018 08:12

It's always wise to take profit off the table; however, we sometimes should look at potential ahead. DYOR

[davr0s] 30/8/2018 19:22

Well I'm out now - I'll never let a decent profit get away nowadays whatever the story is

[novicetrade68] 30/8/2018 17:51

Disappointing to see some bailing at 17p would you believe.

[awise355] 30/8/2018 17:21

Ultra bulls.

[mount teide] 30/8/2018 13:32

Brent up another $0.62/0.8% today to $78.10

Impeccable timing to be bringing another 11 wells into production during H2/2018.

[mount teide] 30/8/2018 11:08

Airlines Are Suspending Flights Because Fuel Is Too Expensive - Oil Price.com

'Several major airlines have announced major cutbacks in flights. American Airlines announced it would be suspending all flights between Chicago and Shanghai during the month of October, as well as reducing the number of flights between Chicago and Tokyo’s Narita International Airport, cutting down from daily service to just three times a week, explicitly citing the current price of jet fuel as a prime reason for these decisions. On the very same day as American’s announcement, Hawaiian Airlines suspended their own flight service between Beijing and Honolulu. It’s extremely evident that even major airlines are scrambling to keep up with rising fuel costs without raising prices for a cost-conscious consumer base.'

Oil averaged $95 for seven years from 2008 to 2015 - yet with oil recovering to $77.70 today from the circa $28.50 in Jan 2016 - Airlines now claim fuel is too expensive and need to suspend flights - pure sophistry! A convenient excuse for reducing capacity on a few routes during the quiet season more like.

[king suarez] 30/8/2018 09:26

Drifting into top-up territory...

[shanklin] 30/8/2018 09:08

Had expected an up day with the increase in the PoO. :-(

[mount teide] 29/8/2018 19:13

Brent up $1.22/1.5% today - now back above $77.50.

Driven largely by a statement from the head of the IEA that "Robust demand and production uncertainty in some oil-producing countries are expected to tighten the oil markets as we approach the end of the year"

The IEA head continues to believe that oil demand growth will continue to be very strong, and coupled with the collapse in Venezuela and what he called the “fragility of production” in countries in the Middle East, the oil markets are set for tightening toward the end of this year.

Outside of war-induced outages, Venezuela is suffering the worst loss of oil production in history amid an unprecedented economic collapse, years of mismanagement and underinvestment in the oil industry, an aggravating humanitarian crisis, and a leader who is hell-bent on clinging to power. Venezuela’s inflation will surge to one million percent by the end of this year as the country with the world’s biggest oil reserves remains stuck in a profound economic and social crisis, the International Monetary Fund predicts.

According to OPEC’s secondary sources, Venezuela’s oil production in July dropped to below the 1.3 million bpd mark at 1.278 million bpd; plunging 47,700 bpd from June. Some analysts expect Venezuela’s production to fall to below 1 million bpd by the end of this year.

U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil exports are expected to take around 1 million bpd or possibly even more off the market in Q4, which would further tighten the oil market if demand growth keeps its pace.

[mount teide] 29/8/2018 17:24

India is set to overtake China as the top driver of global oil demand growth according to research carried out by Wood Mackenzie - CNBC today


'India is set to overtake China as the biggest source of growth for oil demand by 2024, according to a forecast announced Monday by research and consultancy group Wood Mackenzie.

The country's oil demand is set to increase by 3.5 billion barrels per day from 2017 to 2035, which will account for a third of global oil demand growth. India's expanding middle class will be a key factor, as well as its growing need for mobility, according to Wood Mackenzie.

On the other hand, China — currently the second-largest oil consumer in the world — may soon need less oil. In 2017, it overtook the U.S. as the biggest importer of crude oil, but it's set to see a decline in oil demand growth from 2024 to 2035, Wood Mackenzie Research Director Sushant Gupta told CNBC.

That's due to two trends: Alternative energy sources such as electricity and natural gas are displacing the need for gasoline and diesel. And, a more efficient freight system and truck fleet will also result in sluggish road diesel demand, Gupta said.

For India, as demand grows, an oil shortage is already imminent. The country is only expected to add 400,000 barrels per day in firm refinery capacity out to 2023 — paling in comparison to demand growth — warned Wood Mackenzie.

"We think the most likely situation is that India would need between (3.2 million and 4.7 million barrels per day) of new capacity out to 2035 to remain self-sufficient in transport fuels. So we are talking about a future capacity which is 1.7 to 2.0 times the current. This is clearly an uphill task, unless domestic refiners can commit to their planned capacity additions," Gupta said in a Wood Mackenzie release accompanying the India demand projection.

With India's refinery yields still highly tilted toward diesel, Wood Mackenzie added that India needs to start focusing on increasing gasoline. However, with a global surplus of gasoline expected in the long run, India could consider importing the fuel, the research firm suggested.

India's fate has long been tied to oil prices, as it is a net oil importer, and rising prices are set to hit its economy. As a result, its currency could continue weakening, its current account and trade deficits are set to widen further, and its growth could be affected.

In the long run, the country could choose to switch its passenger transport sector — cars, vans and utility vehicles — to run on electricity instead, suggested Gupta.'

[deltrotter] 29/8/2018 11:38

Thanks to Spellbrook on the TRIN board. A quote from Columbus RNS released at 10.30ish:

"At present Columbus sells oil produced from its Goudron operations directly to Petrotrin "at the Goudron site gate" via marketing arrangements associated with the Incremental Production Service Contract between Columbus and Petrotrin. Columbus believes that the proposed changes will have no impact on its Goudron operations as the marketing arrangements will not change and the Company does not interact directly with the refinery. Columbus currently receives an oil price, as calculated by Petrotrin on a monthly basis, after taking account of various factors, including refining and other costs, with the oil price received by Columbus from Petrotrin tending to range at a discount to WTI (West Texas Intermediate) of between 4-6%. The Company will continue to sell production to Petrotrin under the existing contracts, however, rather than selling to the refinery, Petrotrin will export the product at world pricing. This could possibly benefit Columbus in the future as the Company does not currently receive any premium to the oil price it receives from Petrotrin, despite the fact Goudron oil has an API of approximately 38 API, which places it at a higher value than average Trinidad crude oil. "

[mount teide] 29/8/2018 11:10

US oil industry analysts have got a short term forecasting track record that would give the appalling Brexit impact forecasts of the UK Treasury a run for its money!

'Oil Prices Head Lower On Bearish API Report

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise oil inventory build of 38,000 barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending August 25, compared to analyst expectations that this week would see a draw in crude oil inventories of 522,000 barrels.

Last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise draw of 5.17 million barrels of crude oil.'

So, after the industry reported a huge draw last week(completely contrary to analyst forecasts), and some ten times larger than the draw analysts were forecasting for this week - when the overall inventory position stays largely neutral this week it's described as 'bearish' by analysts - why, when over a two week view the industry has reported a more than 5 million barrel draw?

Sensibly, much of the market pays little attention to US 'analysts' short term oil inventory 'forecasts' as a result of an appalling track record of success over many years.