Totally Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 18/5/2019 11:03

1gw,

"What some of our resident rampers were arguing at a share price of around 25p in August 2018 was that Tly was low risk because of the cash on their balance sheet. "

Oh dear 1gw, talk about misleading..
Everyone should read his so called 'evidence' and read the posts around that time to see exactly what was being discussed...

[ttreb] 18/5/2019 10:40

If we all knew the rns one day in advance would you have held, sold or bought,simple as that.
I would have sold.

[deltrotter] 18/5/2019 10:28

Agreed microscope. Time to move on.....

[microscope] 18/5/2019 10:22

Congratulations on your first post on advfn, Sniffer... You seem to have picked up on TLY's history very quickly indeed. A loudly barking sniffer dog, perhaps? ;)

Anyway, Bantz aside, Historic accounts and valuations will be left largely in the past as this will become the main driver for TLY in the future. I'm afraid some posters fretting about 2018 TLY accounts and posters' comments from that era are behind the curve assuming the deal goes through

[grahamwales] 18/5/2019 10:19

Wouldn't surprise me Bob may have tipped them off and the reason why non of the board have bought in the last 18 months. However depending on how many of the previous institutional investors buy back in and at what price (10p seems to be the opinion here anything above that will be a bonus imo) will dictate the share price going forward. Bob did say they will get one more acquisition then look for growth with the companies they have bought.

Think we will see some new institutional investors buying in now and once they come out of suspension. Will they hold yes I think they will this time round.

As always until we see it in black and white we can all make guesses and fortunately not influence any new or existing investors.

[sniffers mate] 18/5/2019 09:38

My only observation is this has vindicated all the instis who dumped this much higher up, they will now get the chance to buy back in at a much lower price to a much better / stronger business. Might be right in the long term but any long suffering shareholders will have to stump up more money to stand a chance of getting there money back. It also explains the recent retracement from 14p ...just hope it's a knock out deal

[nobbygnome] 18/5/2019 09:29

1gw

You are sounding a little despearate trying to talk the company down. Clearly the price should never have got this low and is due to the vagaries of Aim IMHO. Anyway it is all about what happens in the long term; it is what Warren Buffet calls investing! TLY are building a sound company which in the medium to long term will do very well. I for one am prepared to wait for that to come to pass.

And Labour will never win a majority in the current climate IMHO as conventional politics are in melt down. There is a chance they could be the biggest party in a hung parliament but in that case their extreme policies would be watered down significantly!

[jonc] 18/5/2019 09:18

There must be a massive political risk to TLY if Corbyn gets elected. The way the Cons are behaving it is certainly a strong possibility.

[1gw] 18/5/2019 09:05

Low risk?

What some of our resident rampers were arguing at a share price of around 25p in August 2018 was that Tly was low risk because of the cash on their balance sheet. I was arguing that this was illusory because of the offsetting liabilities on the balance sheet and that if they needed to fix the balance sheet by a further placing they would probably need a good discount on the share price.

Fast forward 9 months to today and to me it looks like the last of the cash is likely to disappear buying Greenbrook - on the basis of them having paid around 7 x PBT or 7 x EBITDA up front for PPH and AH, and for Vocare paying up front a bit more than the cash on the Vocare balance sheet. That's assuming the FY19 Greenbrook accounts are similar to the FY18 accounts.

So that leaves them having to raise cash to fix the balance sheet and pay any additional amount up front over what is on the Greenbrook balance sheet.

Even if they could raise the cash at 10p (and I doubt that) that would represent a 60% loss on the 25p August share price.

In what world is that consistent with tly having been a low-risk investment in August?

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sikhthetech - 10 Aug 2018 - 15:35:26 - 4770 of 8791
"Wouldn't you say it was just a little desperate to present Totally's cash balance relative to market cap as somehow indicative of a low risk investment?"
No...to me it's low risk...as I've explained/asked.. look at last year's placing and their prior fy2016 accounts…
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Nobbygnome - 10 Aug 2018 - 11:01:42 - 4738 of 8791
…However, I agree that at this level with the level of cash TLY is very low risk.....despite what some say here. It is all about the management here IMHO...

[macthepak] 18/5/2019 04:52

I think "football" sounds annoyed.

[tomboyb] 17/5/2019 22:36

The buy and build strategy is not a bad one but can be detrimental in the short term for shareholders -

Normally, from an investor perspective buy and build from bottom to top i.e Ian Smith -

However TLY has done a reverse top to bottom -

[tomboyb] 17/5/2019 22:29

hxxps://www.duedil.com/company/gb/06025335/greenbrook-healthcare-hounslow-limited/financials


Turnover 32mill
Profit - 1.0mill

[sikhthetech] 17/5/2019 22:24

The acquisition proves that the strategy hasn't changed...
Whatever the price, it may fall or rise after the placing, the proof is there that the TLY still have the ability for reverse takeovers...

NHS England are rolling out new IUC contracts over the next 2 yrs... TLY is well prepared...
The acquisition extends their reach into the lucrative London and SE areas...

[sikhthetech] 17/5/2019 22:20

Nobby,
absolutely...

a reverse takeover is beyond their wildest dreams... it's obvious who was behind the small sells...
Rattled springs to mind...

[nobbygnome] 17/5/2019 22:14

It would be so great to see football and barky have to eat their words about TLY. As a famous football manager once said, 'I would love it, love it, if we beat them'....

[porky8] 17/5/2019 22:13

Just listened again ......hxxps://audioboom.com/posts/7161674-bob-holt-chairman-of-totally-plc-tly

[nobbygnome] 17/5/2019 22:12

It seems to me the bears are truly worried TLY have pulled a rabbit out of the hat! Whatever the placing price and purchase price, the future looks rosy for the company!

[sikhthetech] 17/5/2019 22:03

1gw, you've previously implied that TLY would have problems with another placing...

As I've said before, I didn't think they would have a problem with another placing...

Oh look, there's another reverse takeover..
The story hasn't changed...as expected ;-)




sikhthetech10 Aug '18 - 11:55 - 4751 of 8777 Edit
0 0 0
so 1gw, yet again...


sikhthetech10 Aug '18 - 11:35 - 4744 of 4750 Edit
0 0 0
1gw,

look at the fy2016 accounts and tell us if they should ever had ANY chance of succeeding in getting around £17m in March 2017???
The placing raised many multiples of their revenues as of fy Dec 2016, didn't it??

Can you confirm?

[porky8] 17/5/2019 21:57

Bless ..... Our 1 Gw's really trying .........

[grahamwales] 17/5/2019 21:43

1gw

We do you keep telling us you hold shares when its quite obvious you don’t. Your negativity is very transparent. However as you or I have no say in what happens next so your continued de ramping is serving no purpose other than to prove to the rest of us that the only interest you have in TLY is to continually knock it.

[grahamwales] 17/5/2019 21:30

Sikh

If it’s a good deal and the placing is around 10p we may not get a chance to buy below 15p. So would prefer to take part in the placing if we get chance.

[1gw] 17/5/2019 21:13

Just as a reminder, if I have my numbers right:

March'16: raised £6.2m from placing 10m shares at 62p/share
March'18: raised £17.6m from placing 30.6m shares at 55p/share

Total raised in those 2 placings: £23.8m.
Market cap now: something under £7m (60m shares)

They're hoping to buy what appears to be a profitable company, although accounts are a year out of date. Unless the sellers are "distressed" they will be paying negotiated fair value plus a share of the envisaged synergies i.e. a "premium" to the sellers. Whatever is left of the synergies after accounting for this premium is there to be shared between existing Tly shareholders and new shareholders who participate in the placing. But new shareholders are almost certainly going to want a big discount on the current tly shareprice given the track record of this management on destroying shareholder value, as evidenced by the placing stats and market cap above.

So existing Tly shareholders can expect to see:
- upside from delivery of synergies and value creation above what is paid to the Greenbrook sellers;
- downside from the discount offered to participants in the placing.

They may try to repeat the trick of paying the sellers with their own money - i.e. stripping the cash out of Greenbrook to pay the sellers the up-front consideration at the cost of further weakening the balance sheet. And they still have quite a bit of their own cash on the balance sheet. So existing cash plus acquired cash could reduce the scale of the placing needed if they are confident of generating cash from operations in the fairly near term.

But even so, the placing price is going to tend to act as an important reference point for the shareprice when it returns from suspension. I really struggle to see them raising at anything like the current shareprice given their track record, unless they can pull some rabbit out of the hat between now and commitment time.

I think existing shareholders' best chance of trying to preserve meaningful value in shares bought at a much higher price is going to be participating in any associated open offer to avoid or reduce dilution and hoping that this time tly can get it right. How many are going to have the courage to do that?

But I could be wrong, so you may as well dream on until the placing price is published.

[sikhthetech] 17/5/2019 20:58

Graham,
The share price tends to fall to around the placing price anyway, so I'm not too worried whether I take part or not... I doubt it's a rights issue..

[grahamwales] 17/5/2019 20:54

Sikh

Doesn’t mean they won’t give some of us long suffering holders a chance to take part.