Totally Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 12/5/2018 10:30

Nobby,
This is everything I feared, your big takeover has over £76m turnover and margins BEFORE tax of....about 0.2%?

And you advise me to purchase this?

Is that why Milton has sold out?

[che7win] 12/5/2018 10:26

I suppose we should now turn our attention to Vocare, and how the market views it:

Announcement here:


At the time, the share price was 47.9p, why has it fallen so sharply since?

So Vocare is operating 66 call centres across the UK for NHS 111, how is minimum wage margins here? Anyone looked at that?

Oh no, I thought they might have a decent business here, I'm astonished.

They have paid £11m for a business that produces, wait for it....£281,000!!!

"For the year ended 31 March 2017 Vocare generated revenue of £76,754,000 and profit before tax of £281,000. As at 31 March 2017 net assets were £2.39 million."

This can't be right, surely? Is this a mistake?

[che7win] 12/5/2018 10:16

Sure enough, 14th March, we have a contract being stopped.

Does anyone know what happened here:
"Vocare reaches agreement to conclude contract for Somerset NHS GP Out-of-Hours Service"

Was it poor service, poor contract, losing money or some other reason?

How many more contracts are at risk like this?

[che7win] 12/5/2018 10:08

Another red flag I must warn you of here.

2018 and 2019 forecasts show current liabilities EXCEEDING current assets, that is dangerous and rules out investment for many.

Why did you not highlight this whilst advising your readers?

Maybe these contracts have some risk attached to them, how safe are they?

[che7win] 12/5/2018 10:03

This company isn't making money, it's tripled shares in the last year and even after buy and build, it won't be making money, not even in 2019.

And I was advised to invest here, are they qualified to give advice btw?

[che7win] 12/5/2018 09:59

Let's see if we can salvage something from their EBITDA margins.

Here at last is a crumb of comfort, but it's very slim!
Margins this year are forecast to just pop into positive territory by the slimmest 0.5% wafer thin figure.
Even in 2019, the improvement is slight, albeit in the right direction to 1.6% figure.

Can I be blunt here - that's pathetic, it's not investable on this.

One poor contract and your profits (oh, that's right, there are no profits) are wiped out.

IMHO, DYOR.

[che7win] 12/5/2018 09:44

I must take a deeper dive here, but perhaps I know already why the share price is continually declining.

I think 15p or less on the chart was predicted by someone on another board?

[che7win] 12/5/2018 09:41

They are forecasting £90m revenues by 2019 with gross margin 15%. On the face of it, that is an average business, not outstanding, but not mediocre either.

What is ringing alarm bells for me is the trend on that gross margin - year on year it's declining. Can anyone account for that?
Looking at page 2, gross margin in:
2015 was 68.1%
2016 was 34.6%
2018 estimate is 18.2%
2019 estimated is 15.2%

What is going on here? Surely we should expect rationalisation of these buyouts and efficiency gains, yet the opposite is happening.

Rather alarming I'd say, maybe this isn't quite as good a business as Nobby has been boasting about all over IMM?

[che7win] 12/5/2018 09:34

So,
Let's ignore the past and look to the future, I have sourced a recent broker note here:



We can see that this business gorged £6m last year, and lost over £1.8m before tax.

This year forecast isn't much improvement, looking for another £1.25m loss or -2p EPS.

Maybe 2019 they show a profit? Nope, another £1.31p EPS loss. It's looking rather bleak for the next two years at least here on these forecasts I'm afraid.

Are all these contracts they are winning or renewing making any money?

IMHO, dyor

[che7win] 12/5/2018 09:21

I am certainly no troll of Nobbys. The opposite is true, he is a known troll on IMM.
I am the opposite, humble and willing to admit I post to learn from others.

Nobby has invited me to post here by his latest pumping of this stock on IMM boards, in his words:
"Nobbygnome11 May '18 - 13:11 - 30880 of 30965
0 1 0
In fact che you would do well to sell all your IMM and buy TLY. Then you could get your money back 😜"

Now that I'm here and welcomed by one and all, I have received no reply as to why this is investable.

We looked at the historical figures yesterday and they were agreed by all replies that they should be dismissed. I can see why - they are terrible in my opinion.

I hope this isn't another buy and build type stock, the track record of these types of businesses competing for government contracts is poor, we all know how Carillion ended up.

Ok, so as advised, I should just ignore historical figures for this company, maybe the future forecasted figures will be better?

[parob] 12/5/2018 08:01

A mention in The Daily Mail:DAILY BRIEFING: Healthcare services firm Totally Plc renews £1.2m-a-year contract with Northumbria NHShTtps://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-5719629/DAILY-BRIEFING-Totally-Plc-renews-1-2m-year-contract-Northumbria-NHS.html

[dave4545] 12/5/2018 00:25

I thought the way the mm's have soaked up a lot of selling with a smallish drop I was certain the mm's were buying for the company. Perhaps they are able to fill a order
and not announce it until it's fully executed.

As normal on 99% of stocks people quickly get bored and move on when they are not flying up 5-10% today. Getting very cheap again at around 26.5p offer.

[parob] 11/5/2018 21:56

Interest seems to be picking up:#TLY @TotallyPlc was 1 of the most followed companies on @VoxMarkets in the last 24 hrs.

[the big fella] 11/5/2018 20:54

When a company has 100 mil turnover and small margins it means that the opportunity to grow profits only takes a slight fair wind. However clearly the opposite is also true. I have no idea which way this will go but it certainly isn’t the no brainer that is portrayed on here. I do hold BTW as I clearly see the potential.

[deltrotter] 11/5/2018 16:57

Would be really strange for them to call a general meeting for the singular purpose of obtaining permission to buy back shares and then not do it.

What do others think?

[nobbygnome] 11/5/2018 16:07

He's my troll so apologies to all. He doesn't have a clue (lost a fortune on IMM) so don't listen to him.

Nobby

[deltrotter] 11/5/2018 16:03

He is buying in....

[microscope] 11/5/2018 15:07

Extremely poor lack of research there che7win, sadly. Did you not read about the Vocare acquisition? Did you not understand the 11 million in cash? Did you not notice the recent contract wins including one for 5 million?

Must try harder :) All imho of course :)

EDIT: Now I get it, the IMM smell. Haters will hate. From the IMM thread.... Filter - or just laugh :)

"che7win - 11 May 2018 - 14:20:35 - 30931 of 3095...
I might have to start posting more negative stuff on TLY as I dig it up."

No more need be said! :)))

[cottoner] 11/5/2018 14:49

Last years figures wrt revenue are irrelevant.

Acquisition of Vocare increases revenue to c£100m.

[che7win] 11/5/2018 14:46

What is the investment case here?

The NHS is strapped for cash.

The business is burning money, on 6 month results:
"EBITDA profit before exceptional costs £15,000 (Year Ended 31 December 2016: EBITDA loss £1,159,000)"

"EBITDA loss including exceptional costs £1,053,000 (Year Ended 31 December 2016: EBITDA loss £1,653,000)"

"The twelve month period showed turnover of £21,351,000 (2016: £3,977,000) and a loss of £2,061,000 (Year ended 31 December 2016: £1,516,000). "

Operating loss of £2m on £21.3m turnover, and thats just for 6 months!
Previous year no better - £1.5m loss.

Current assets only slightly above current liabilities - another massive red flag.

Burnt over £3m cash on OPERATING ACTIVITIES in 6 months, you think this is investible?

Cash outflow for 6 months - over £6m!

[dave4545] 11/5/2018 12:15

Friday lull, strong week, lots of traders with small amounts getting bored and selling down.

Usual stuff

[spacedust] 11/5/2018 09:33

It won't. If there was an rns today confirming that vicare was not awarded a 1.5m renewal contract we would have been around 22p now.

[the deacon] 11/5/2018 08:41

Common sense will prevail.... Eventually..

[nobbygnome] 11/5/2018 08:35

It looks like I am gong to be surprised 😳