Totally Share Discussion Threads

[the big fella] 26/4/2018 10:06

OK thanks Micro, that does sound a bit odd. Why so much? I work in the funds industry and most of our funds work on a t4 settlement cycle.Is the fund in question suspended (ie no inflows or outflows until the capital is raised?). Is there a timeframe they have to pay it by?

[microscope] 26/4/2018 09:09

Hi TBF, ok thanks, hope you are well too. Milton's annual redemption usually passes quietly, but this year they are having to redeem neaarly 11%, or over 12 million pounds worth, to holders. So they've been selling down various AIM stocks remorselessly for about the last six weeks, including TLY, VRS and WEY.

Not sure about their connections, but I notice ironically the Miton share price is at an all time high

[the big fella] 26/4/2018 06:02

Hi micro. Hope you are well. Why are Miton forced sellers? Aren’t they something to do with Midas capital (never a fan)?

[microscope] 25/4/2018 23:34

Since the middle of last week we have traded 10 million shares, about 17% of the company.

Miton had 5.5 million to offload. Killick added about 1 million.

That still leaves 3.5 million shares unaccounted for (I have counted the big end of day matched trades once, not twice).

My guess? Either someone is building a very large stake, as the relentless buying over several days would support in such small stock that usually does a few thousand of shares a week....

.....Or at some point in the next weeks or months, a full scale Bid is headed our way. Maybe that is why the acquisition strategy has been put on hold...... Cancelling 10% of the shares would then suddenly look very convenient too.

Maybe as Sikh and others of you have said Killick's sells followed by buying back is just smart because they knew they'd get Miton's, or tax related, or good trading.... But for an institutional broker, it's exceptionally unusual in such a short space of time.

If there is a bidder, take advantage of the low price and Miton's available shares before showing your hand.... At the same time buy as many as you can in the open market.

Ok it's late and maybe it's just my mad conspiracy theory.... But the more I think about it....


PS: Note:'Re Vocare last October:

Lock-in and orderly market arrangements

The Vendors have undertaken to the Company, Allenby Capital and Cenkos Securities that, subject to certain limited exceptions, they will not dispose of any interest they hold in the Consideration Shares for a period of 12 months following Admission. The Vendors have undertaken that, for a further period of 12 months thereafter, they shall be bound by orderly market restrictions in respect of their Consideration Shares.'

[grahamwales] 25/4/2018 21:00

They had 85% ownership over Vocare.

[grahamwales] 25/4/2018 20:59

As the Harrison brothers have now left, I was wondering if Totally are proposing to buy the shares they gave them on the takeover. Figure is about right bearing in mind there was a third party that owned Vocare along with them.

If that is the case then Totally would have paid less than the £11 million due to the drop in share price.

[microscope] 25/4/2018 19:48

Dave i've passed this one on to the local Uni Maths Department!! :) I did say I'd be glad when this trading week was over....

When I came up with the original figure of 800k+ left, after the 1.85 million on Monday, we then got the Killick announcement which scuppered that.

On the simplest level including all the late trades yesterday and today, Miton could still have just over 1.4 million, but they have have only two trading days left to do something about it.

But I'm going to have a more detailed look to see if I can match anything else up.

[spacedust] 25/4/2018 19:39

Thanks Toad

[toadhall1] 25/4/2018 18:28

Good questions.

[spacedust] 25/4/2018 17:54

Over 2m late trades. Doesn't this overhang ever finish

[dave4545] 25/4/2018 16:04

Shake time. Bidding 50k at 24.21p online and they drop on a 5585 sale

[savagedstock] 25/4/2018 15:28

Thanks Micro will do

[microscope] 25/4/2018 14:47

Suggest you give Bob or Wendy a call if you're serious, Savage, given the screes of detail requested, and open-endedness of some of your questions.

[dave4545] 25/4/2018 12:43

Should be another holding Rns today.

[sikhthetech] 25/4/2018 12:30

graham,

well spotted..

[sikhthetech] 25/4/2018 12:27

spawny,

there is no such thing as a no brainer, guaranteed return etc... look at bull and bear points and risk/reward and form your opinion...
Never invest more than you can afford to lose...



As to TLY, it's worth looking at the other subsidiaries mentioned in header...Although Vocare is a v significant part of TLY, it's not the only subsidiary... other subsidiaries are growing..


and recent newsflow, from TLY and NHS...



Last few years, NHS has been changing the way it provides it's services to patients...
Shared Decision Making and "Integrated Care".



Integrated care systems (ICSs)





Wendy, CEO's interview:

[grahamwales] 25/4/2018 12:17

Both Harrison’s have gone

[savagedstock] 25/4/2018 12:09

Having been negative since the relisting at 55p (though I never shorted), I am now looking at it closely from a long perspective....however i have a few reservations still which perhaps someone might care to shed some light on

1. the contracts they disclose are the total value, not the annual value, so 40m of new contracts (post 2687) is closer to 8m a year. For vocare with 80m of sales a year that is only 10% renewal, or 10% growth assuming that 100% of the existing business renews for the following year. So what i want to know is how much of vocare's annual revenue renews automatically for the next 3 years?
2. What margins are these contracts on please? Are these cost plus, or fixed price/ in the NHS world, I would prefer cost plus, and i strongly believe that which of these two has a meaningful impact on share valuation
3. Who is actually running this company - I prefer to invest in micro caps when the CEO has a significant holding - in this case Mr Holt and Ms Lawrence have 2% between them. Messers Harrison have 9.6%, so who calls the shots at the Board Meetings? This is particularly important when difficult decisions need to be made, including those which might affect deferred consideration.
4. Why are they buying back shares when they need the money for more acquisitions to execute their stated strategy? Most good CEOs believe the share price will take care of itself over time - build a solid, profitable business paying dividends, and the share price will reflect that.
5. I still have a flea in my ear about who bought the building and leased it back to the company. For me its about transparency......

I agree that we could see 30p when overhang clears, but over 50% of the shareholders are in at 55p. What is TLY telling these investors? I am usually very slow to take a position, so maybe my questions / thoughts are not for everyone.

[spawny100] 25/4/2018 11:57

Thanks guys. No brainers tend to scare me but this looks very promising so had a little nibble today.

[nobbygnome] 25/4/2018 11:19

Incidentally since I have pledged not to post on the IMM thread yet it was mentioned here, I will say that I just went short again. I bought back my existing short at 36p this morning so I am trading actively.

So much complete nonsense is posted on the IMM thread especially by che....

[nobbygnome] 25/4/2018 11:14

And another 5k by Spreadbet...

[dave4545] 25/4/2018 11:12

I must admit nobody on the forums or twitter should ever write the words "no brainer"

Nothing on the stock market is a no brainer.

It looks promising because the shares were trading comfortable well over 30p when the seller started and now despite a big cash position and winning big contracts the price is below 25p so most expect when overhang goes the price to return to the comfort zone
of 30-40p short term

[nobbygnome] 25/4/2018 11:11

Turnover close to £100 million so as long as Vocare is profitable even marginally the valuation is ridiculous. The price is currently about 1/8 times turnover! Clearly Vocare is a challenge but I trust Bob Holt et al to sort it out.....and quickly.

Even if it takes a while, I am more than ready to wait. They are not going to stop here in terms of acquisitions so the price now is an absolute steal IMHO. I have added another 25k in the last few days.

Nobby